Combing through news flow on 1 April is a rather risky endeavor, let me tell you! That said, fortunately, the two big pieces of news that I will be discussing today were announced yesterday! The first is the announcement by the US that it will be releasing one million barrels of oil per day over the next six months in an effort to ease concerns over global oil supply and reduce pressure on oil prices.

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And so the daily ups and downs continue. Talks between Ukranian and Russian officials over a ceasefire seem to have stalled. They are set to resume tomorrow, but the continued lack of progress wil add to uncertainty in global asset markets. In an attempt to bring some calm to the oil market, it seems the US is considering releasing a million barrels of oil a day for a couple of months. 

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Talks for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia begin today. Ukraine is hoping, at the very least, for an improvement in the humanitarian situation, but no doubt a cease-fire and commitment to peace talks would be preferable. 

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The Russia-Ukraine war remains the central focus for markets, speculation about the next moves from Russia, and sideline participation in various forms by other countries remains rife.

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It is (only) a month since Russia began its invasion of Ukraine – I say only because it feels like it has been so much longer. In a month commodity prices have gone wild, concerns over rising inflation have only intensified and the geopolitical landscape has gone from posturing to positioning.

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President Joe Biden will be in Europe from today to meet with the US’ NATO partners, attend a European Council meeting and participate in a G7 Summit. These meetings will centre on the war in Ukraine. 

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We return from a long weekend to more of the same – the war in Ukraine rages on. Oil prices, after dipping briefly to below US$100/bbl last week, have rocketed to over US$110/bbl today with Brent crude approaching the US$120/bbl level and WTI crude US$115/bbl.

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Talk is cheap – and to remind politicians and policymakers markets have sent a clear signal this morning.

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Lift-off, both for the federal funds rate and Comair. Very much as expected, the Federal Open Markets Committee raised the federal fund rate by 25bp at its March meeting. 

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Talks between Russia and Ukraine are set to resume today, but it seems the views of officials from both sides are already quite different, with Ukraine seeing space for compromise and Russia suggesting Ukraine isn’t “serious” about finding a resolution to the war.

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