The Markets Daily

A collective sigh of relief may be apparent globally with news that the price of WTI crude has fallen below USW$100/bbl and Brent crude oil is flirting with this level. Oil prices are still significantly higher than their year’s opening level, but have equally come off the highs seen over the past few weeks. 

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The Russia-Ukraine war remains the central focus of global news today with the US having announced that Russia has approached China for support – in the form of military equipment.

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The weekend brings with it a chance for a break, but in these uncertain times, it also adds a certain level of anxiety, as the world we face at the start of the new week could be vastly different to the world we leave at the end of the week. 

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It never rains, but it pours. This proverb seems so incredibly appropriate in a very wet Johannesburg today. At least the rain up here is actually something good – it may not seem it here in SA’s summer rainfall region this season, but this is a water-scarce country, so rain means one less year of drought in my mind.

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Tensions continue to escalate both on the ground in Ukraine and also in terms of economic responses to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The US has moved a step closer to passing legislation to ban oil imports from Russia, while EU countries are still debating whether to follow this course of action. 

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The war in Ukraine continues to dominate news, commodity prices and asset markets. The oil price, already a sharp mover this year as we have discussed in this forum, has shot up even further, with the price of Brent crude oil almost hitting US$140/bbl this morning in response to news that the US is discussing sanctions on Russian oil and energy exports with its allies – and even contemplating imposing these alone if it doesn’t get consensus. 

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It is crazy to think that it has only been nine days since the geopolitical tension in eastern Europe between Ukraine and Russia turned into a war. It feels like it has been going on for so much longer. 

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Jerome Powell’s appearance before the US Congress has brought, at the very least, a moment of calm to markets. His preference for a 25bp hike at the March meeting over a 50bp hike has brought a bit of certainty during an incredibly uncertain time. 

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The war in Ukraine remains the central focus in the world today. Despite the commitment by the US and its allies to collectively release 60 million barrels of oil to try and ease concerns over oil supply shortages

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