Curiosity Weekly

The Math Bias That Makes You Misjudge COVID-19


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Learn how the mathematical mistake of exponential growth bias makes people underestimate the spread of COVID-19, how crocodiles have survived since the dinosaurs, and how puns activate both sides of the brain.

"Exponential growth bias" can make people underestimate COVID-19 by Steffie Drucker

  • Robson, D. (2020). Exponential growth bias: The numerical error behind Covid-19. BBC.Com. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200812-exponential-growth-bias-the-numerical-error-behind-covid-19
  • Shlomo Benartzi. (2019, June 17). If You Don’t Save Enough, Perhaps You Have ‘Exponential Growth Bias.’ WSJ; The Wall Street Journal. https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-you-dont-save-enough-perhaps-you-have-exponential-growth-bias-11560737101
  • Dispatch 1: Numbers | Radiolab | WNYC Studios. (2020). WNYC Studios. https://www.wnycstudios.org/podcasts/radiolab/articles/dispatch-numbers
  • Lammers, J., Crusius, J., & Gast, A. (2020). Correcting misperceptions of exponential coronavirus growth increases support for social distancing. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(28), 16264–16266. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006048117
  • Banerjee, R., Bhattacharya, J., & Majumdar, P. (2020). Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures in the times of COVID-19. ArXiv.Org. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01273


Crocodiles Are Prehistoric Monsters Who Survived The Dinosaur's Extinction by Reuben Westmaas

  • Pappas, S. (2017, July 5). Super Croc with T. Rex Teeth May Have Chowed Down on Dinosaurs. Livescience.Com; Live Science. https://www.livescience.com/59697-super-croc-with-t-rex-teeth-ate-dinosaurs.html
  • Osborne, H. (2017, July 4). Ancient Giant “Ghost” Crocodile With T-Rex-Sized Teeth Discovered in Madagascar. Newsweek; Newsweek. https://www.newsweek.com/ancient-giant-crocodie-t-rex-teeth-madagascar-631590
  • Nova. (1998, April 28). The Extraordinary Lives of Crocs. Pbs.Org; Nova. https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/article/extraordinary-lives-of-crocs/

“Getting” Puns Means Both Sides of Your Brain Are Working Together by Reuben Westmaas

  • Original episode: https://www.curiositydaily.com/nasa-cryosleep-chambers-your-brain-on-puns-why-red/


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Find episode transcript here: https://curiosity-daily-4e53644e.simplecast.com/episodes/the-math-bias-that-makes-you-misjudge-covid-19

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