This quarter’s CEOBarometer dives into the realities of a UK tech sector that entered 2025 expecting growth but is instead facing slower trading, elongated sales cycles, and selective capital. We explore the standouts bucking the trend - from ICT players like Wireless Logic to software innovators like Nervecentre and Origin - and unpack how AI adoption, capital market shifts, private equity’s “flight to quality,” and selective M&A are reshaping the landscape. The takeaway? In today’s market, success comes down to sharp positioning, clear focus, and strong execution.

Timestamps:

Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

About this podcast

Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector—M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more.

Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

This quarter’s CEOBarometer spotlights subdued trading conditions, faltering investment flows, and the selective rise of AI.

Organic growth has slowed across the board—Software companies posted 13% growth, while ICT Services lagged at 7%. The deceleration is sharpest in consulting services, where low recurring revenue and discretionary budget cuts have driven many businesses into stagnation. In contrast, recurring revenue models continue to provide resilience in Software, where growth has largely stabilised at pre-COVID levels.

Despite these challenges, standout performers in areas like cybersecurity and defence—such as Bridewell, DIGI2AL, and FSP—are still delivering strong double-digit growth, proving that execution and sector positioning remain critical.

The investment landscape also reflects mounting caution. UK-listed tech valuations have dipped below 10x EV/EBITDA, IPO activity remains stalled, and private equity deal volumes have halved year-on-year. Meanwhile rising debt levels and cash interest payments continue to cause stress for some. While top-tier software firms continue to command strong multiples, ICT Services valuations—particularly in consulting—have seen a significant reset.

Venture funding tells a two-speed story: capital remains available for late-stage, AI-native businesses such as Quantexa and Luminance, but pre-Series A funding has collapsed, narrowing the pipeline for future investment.

As the sector recalibrates, this episode offers critical insights into where growth is holding up, where confidence is fading, and what tech leaders need to consider as they navigate another year of cautious optimism and selective momentum.

Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

About this podcast

Our quarterly podcast offers a clear, strategic perspective on the forces shaping the UK tech sector—M&A, capital flows, valuations, AI, and more.

Hosted by Megabuyte’s Founder & Chairman, Ian Spence, and Megabuyte’s Head of Research & Consulting, Neel Arampatta, the CEOBarometer is designed for CxOs of scale-ups and mid-market companies who value depth over noise.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

Growth Outlook 01m 37s

Capital Markets 22m 20s

Private Equity 33m 57s

Venture & Growth Capital 55m 56s

M&A 01h 01m 18s

In this month's podcast: As we enter 2025, this month’s Megabuyte CEOBarometer adopts a slightly different format. Like last January’s episode, this month’s show runs to an hour to provide a comprehensive round-up of the past year and set the scene for the year ahead.

The podcast begins with a 12-month retrospective, revisiting key technology and growth trends, corporate activity data, and a look back at our 2024 predictions to assess their accuracy. Building on these insights, we then turn to our forward-looking predictions for 2025, offering perspectives on the themes that will shape the year ahead.

This month’s predictions touch on all the usual topics covered in the podcast but also feature a focused segment on AI, which remains a pivotal agenda item for UK tech leaders.

So, in summary, we were pretty bullish at the start of last year about the outlook for 2024. However, while the year proved stronger than 2023, persistent corporate caution and political uncertainty limited the pace of recovery. Deal activity remained more muted than expected, with capital markets notably poor, while private equity remained relatively robust. Looking ahead, with the exception of capital markets, we expect a gradually improving picture for corporate activity and valuations.

This month’s show captures all these themes in detail, providing a balanced look back at 2024 and forward to what lies ahead in 2025.

Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

About this podcast

The CEOBarometer podcast is a quarterly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies.

Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

Tech Trends 01m 05s

      - AI Predictions for 2025 04m 50s

Growth Outlook 19m 47s

Capital Markets 27m 29s

Private Equity 37m 00s

Venture & Growth Capital 39m 12s

M&A 41m 41s

5 Key Recommendations for Boards 44m 16s

In this month's podcast: Finally, some good news! UK tech sector share prices and valuations actually saw some meaningful improvement in November, making it a positive month for the sector across the board. As expected, M&A volumes were strong, boosted by pre-budget deals, with ICT Services activity seeing a particularly notable pop.

Private equity had a strong showing too, with a 10% year-on-year rise in deals, driven largely by MBOs making a return after some time. Even the downtrodden venture capital sector had a good month, raising over £500m - its best month since May - thanks to increasingly clear AI drivers.

Of course, the capital markets didn’t get the memo and logged yet another month of no meaningful deal activity.

Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

About this podcast

The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies.

Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

News Analysis 00m 48s

Capital Markets 05m 12s

Private Equity 08m 45s

Venture & Growth Capital 14m 46s

M&A 20m 54s

In this month's podcast: In addition to the usual analysis of corporate activity and valuations, this month’s ‘spotlight’ is on growth trends, providing an overview of current market growth rates, some context on where we are relative to recent highs and lows, and our view on the outlook.

In particular, we analyse why, as Software sector growth remains robust, parts of the ICT Services sector still have some way to go. M&A activity received the expected pre-budget boost, though this impact has yet to be fully reflected in the numbers, and private equity activity remained strong across both MBOs and SBOs. In contrast, capital markets saw another weak month, with share prices, corporate activity, and valuations all underwhelming. Venture capital investment remains subdued, though select deals hint at a potential medium-term recovery. With the budget behind us, modest growth should resume as decision-making picks up.

Transcript available here or save for offline by hitting 'Download' above

About this podcast

The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies.

Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

News Analysis 00m 48s

Capital Markets 11m 26s

Private Equity 14m 11s

Venture & Growth Capital 21m 49s

M&A 27m 34s

In addition to our customary monthly updates, this month’s show has an AI flavour as we analyse the latest product announcements from key players, revealing what they signal about AI adoption trends and spotlighting three critical takeaways.

Meanwhile, in our monthly analysis of share prices, valuations and corporate activity:

After a positive summer for share prices in the UK tech sector, September was disappointing with flat prices, in line with the UK market but underperforming a resurgent US market. Deal activity was also muted, with a 25% year-on-year drop across all categories. Private equity was particularly quiet after a very busy August; venture capital remained depressed, especially at either end of the size spectrum; and M&A numbers were soft, although we anticipate a tsunami of pre-budget deals in October and November.

About this podcast

The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies.

Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

News Analysis 00m 48s

Capital Markets 10m 23s

Private Equity 13m 02s

Venture & Growth Capital 18m 59s

M&A 22m 48s

While it feels like most tech CEOs are getting on with the new norm, the statistics over the summer tell a different story. While UK tech sector share prices were solid across July and August, and valuations are generally stable, corporate activity in all categories was down, even in the otherwise resilient private equity sector, where weak MBO numbers mean that year-to-date deal volumes are now flat. M&A activity also remains muted with increased polarisation between ICT Services and Software, with the latter enjoying decent deal volumes and some chunky transactions over the summer. The same goes for venture and growth capital, where activity is stubbornly refusing to recover. Some of this weakness is likely to result from the decision to delay liquidity events made after the snap election was called. But now, many will be waiting to see the details of inevitable tax changes coming in the budget.

About this podcast

The CEOBarometer podcast is a monthly publication hosted by Ian Spence, Founder and Chairman of Megabuyte. In each episode, Ian provides expert analysis of key trends in UK tech M&A, capital markets, private equity, and venture capital, and explores their implications for the boards of UK tech companies.

Megabuyte supports UK scale-up and mid-market Software and ICT Services companies to develop robust growth strategies, understand their competitive landscape and customer sentiment, benchmark their financial performance and valuation, and identify and track M&A targets.

Learn how at www.megabuyte.com or search ‘Megabuyte for CxOs’.

Skip to:

News Analysis 01m 00s

Capital Markets 10m 37s

Private Equity 18m 18s

Venture & Growth Capital 25m 44s

M&A 31m 38s

As we head into the summer lull, June was relatively quiet on the corporate activity front, although the massive valuation on Preqin’s sale to Blackrock certainly caught the eye. Trends observed this year have persisted, with strong private equity volumes contrasting with ongoing, though moderating, weaknesses in M&A, venture capital, and capital markets activities. Meanwhile, notwithstanding the undoubted success of the Raspberry Pi IPO, UK tech sector share prices and quoted valuations remain at near 10-year lows after another soggy month, especially for software. However, the outlook for the second half of the year looks increasingly bright, with improving sentiment, greater political stability – in the UK at least – and the likely start of a period of downward movement in interest rates.

Skip to:

News Analysis 04m 41s

Capital Markets 08m 27s

Private Equity 12m 18s

Venture & Growth Capital 16m 06s

M&A 19m 26s

The patchy recovery continued in May, marked by a notable pop in UK share prices. Trading conditions continue to be mixed but are improving overall, while evidence of the gap between the AI haves and have-nots is growing. Regarding corporate activity, private equity continues to be the bright spot; fundraising numbers clearly suggest that VC has turned a corner, but it was another flat month for M&A. Meanwhile, there’s good and bad news on the IPO front. The good news is that Raspberry Pi has pulled the trigger on its IPO, and it seems to be going well, which may precipitate others in the sector to follow suit. The bad news is that the founder and former CEO of WANdisco is trying to make a return to public company life just months after he presided over the near-collapse of that company. You really couldn’t make it up!

Skip to:

News Analysis 05m 39s

Capital Markets 12m 56s

Private Equity 19m 44s

Venture & Growth Capital 22m 53s

M&A 25m 27s

Over the last year, I've been working on a major research project on AI strategy. The genesis of this research programme was an AI-focused panel session at the 2023 Megabuyte CEOStrategy Offsite. The depth of audience engagement in that panel session, but also what appeared to be a lack of clear thinking around strategy on AI, left me in little doubt that there was more research needed in this critical area.

So I set about sense checking that interpretation with multiple CEOs. And the consensus was clear - there is a strong desire, or perhaps imperative is a better word, to advance AI strategies despite prevailing uncertainties. The question, of course, is how? So, leveraging Megabuyte's expertise in transforming evidence-based analysis into actionable insights for CEOs, we set out to provide a contextualised AI strategy framework for the boards of UK scale-up and mid-market tech companies.

The objective for tech companies in applying this framework is to optimise shareholder value by leveraging AI in the most effective and appropriate way, focusing on its integration into product strategy, operations, and also into corporate strategy. Our research at Megabuyte indicates that the UK tech sector is entering a phase of disruption as seismic as that of the early 2000s.

In this context, strategic decisions made in the next two to three years will have undoubtedly have a disproportionate impact on shareholder value over the medium to long term. The future certainly presents both vast opportunities but also significant threats to growth and valuations. The key question is how we can determine what good looks like in terms of AI strategy.

At Megabuyte we're privileged to have unique access to some 500 tech company boards here in the UK, and over the past year we solicited the views from many of the CEOs and CTOs in that network, and we triangulated them with our own research in order to answer this vitally important question. Our Strategy Framework Report synthesises insights from these interviews along with our own research and is now available to download free of charge from our website.

In this special episode of the Megabuyte CEOBarometer, I will talk you through key takeaways from that report. But there's more in store. This report serves really as just Phase One of our research. The next step is to apply our framework to key technology sub sectors and delve deeper into the themes and get some more detailed insights within those parts of the market. And that will be for the benefit of our subscribers.

If you're already a Megabuyte subscriber and you're interested in participating in this element of the research, please just do drop me a line or contact the person you speak to most frequently at Megabuyte. I fundamentally believe that this is the single most important strategic decision that every tech company, and indeed every company full stop, will face over the next decade.