Ben and Tom discuss WSJ's Timiraos reporting that Trump has been calling Warsh repeatedly since he became Fed Chair — treating him as a trusted economic adviser on the Iran war and AI's economic impact — reigniting the Fed independence debate just as Bessent posted a viral tweet that lit up financial media, memory names WDC dropping 16% and SNDK falling 12% on decelerating quarterly growth despite still-strong annual revenue, ISM Services showing continued resilience with tariff and Middle East concerns fading and World Cup boosts persisting, Fastenal running slightly better than seasonal, Bank of America showing acceleration in lower-income segments, Costco's lowest ex-gas ticket since November potentially signaling disinflation, and Meta launching its Muse Code coding agent as a cheaper alternative to OpenAI and Anthropic.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss SpaceX falling 11% despite laying out an ambitious AI and Starlink roadmap including Grok 5 trained on internal SpaceX data by year-end, 1.4GW of current compute growing toward 10GW by end of 2027, deploying NVL72-designed data centers on the ground rather than in space, boots on the moon by 2028, and the goal of scaling launch cadence to one per day in 2027, SpaceX's decision to go exclusively with Nvidia sending AMD down 9% despite good results and CPU acceleration while Arista Networks jumped 14% on accelerating networking demand tied to Nvidia, CVS raising guidance and re-adding Zepbound to its formulary while publicly backing Eli Lilly with expanded GLP-1 support, Lilly beating on stronger-than-expected GLP-1 pricing, Disney rising 4% on parks strength and a TikTok short-form video partnership, Uber slipping despite record first-time user additions, and the JOLTS report showing softer job openings but likely not a signal Warsh will weigh.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the industrial demand train continuing to roll with ISM Manufacturing accelerating to 55.6 and employment turning positive for the first time in 33 months, Caterpillar raising guidance and surging 10% on data center engine and turbine demand, Palantir soaring 15% with US commercial revenue up 149% and Karp declaring the "revolution for AI sovereignty" is underway, ON Semi up 8% on silicon carbide AI data center revenue growing 60%, Entegris beating estimates, TransDigm +3% on double-digit aerospace and defense growth, Cummins raising outlook on data center power gen, healthcare beats from MRK and PFE potentially masking channel stuffing, McDonald's +2% on better-than-feared comps with a new US president appointed, ADM +5% on the EPA biofuel mandate, and Snap +6% on the World Cup boost.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the rare coordinated currency intervention with the US joining Japan and possibly Korea to prop up the yen from 164 to 155, Japan spending at least $53 billion with the US chipping in over $1 billion — reportedly by selling euros rather than dollars in a strategic move to pressure Eurozone policy while supporting Japan, Bessent's incentive to keep Japan from dumping US Treasuries, Japan's plan to tap a COVID-era $60B/day USD swap facility, Iran signaling that Hormuz talks with Oman are entering the final stages after MBS urged Trump to prioritize dialogue, and the market reaction with oil down 5% to the high-$70s/low-$80s, the 10-year at 4.68%, and stocks up 0.5%.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Andrew discuss a plan for Hamas to disarm in Gaza, Apple and Amazon's earnings reports, and the blowup of the AI focused hedge fund Situational Awarness. 

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Warsh holding rates at 3.50-3.75% in a divided 6-3 vote with market-implied inflation expectations dropping meaningfully since the last meeting, the BOE also holding at 3.75% in a matching 6-3 split, the emerging Mag-7 split with Microsoft rising 8% on improved AI ROI, better throughput, and Copilot seat growth versus Meta down 9% on longer time-to-value and fuzzy CapEx guidance beyond 2027, the broader takeaway that Mag-7 is now focused on driving AI revenue and CapEx efficiency which is bearish for Nvidia near-term but long-term positive for the industry, a Russian missile leaving a 30-foot crater on the Poland-Ukraine border, Admiral Cooper preparing a 10-14 day punishing air campaign against Iran, and South Korea weighing a short-selling ban.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss today's Fed meeting with a 35% chance of a rate hike and expectations of a hawkish hold from Warsh amid potential mutiny from Waller, Bostic, and Lisa Cook, the emerging "semi-stagflation" theme with memory prices destroying demand and slamming chip stocks including Vertiv down 14%, Skyworks and Qorvo down double digits, and KLA down 8%, Procter & Gamble's remarkable flatline quarter with 0% volume, 0% pricing, and 0% organic growth, the strong and resilient consumer theme from Visa and Garmin, disruption stories like CoStar losing search traffic to AI, Trump vowing to hit Iran hard after intercepted attacks sending oil up 5%, and Zuckerberg's WSJ op-ed calling for democratized AI access.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben and Tom discuss the growing Fed infighting reported by WSJ's Nick Timiraos with Governor Chris Waller openly challenging new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at a dinner over his five new outside expert task forces on communications, inflation framework, asset holdings, data, and AI's impact on productivity, Warsh's notable silence on economic shocks despite the changed environment, the AIA Architecture Billings Index staying below 50 for 41 straight months in one of the longest downturns on record, oil falling as Iran hosts a diplomatic call with Saudi Arabia and Oman with WTI down to $80, chips getting smashed again on Korea weakness and China competition, and Trump's packed schedule meeting Zelensky and Netanyahu before Lindsey Graham's funeral.

Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Nvidia agreeing to guarantee $250 billion in financing for OpenAI's $500 billion 10GW data center in southern Ohio developed by SoftBank Energy with Japan investing $33 billion in the natural gas power plant and the US government splitting power revenues, CXMT's 450% China market debut and Apple's interest in sourcing memory chips from them to avoid hostage-taking by SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, "TACO Monday" as Trump paused Iran strikes over the weekend to give diplomacy space amid concerns over Patriot interceptor stockpiles, and the market impact with oil down 7% to the mid-$80s, stocks up across the board, gold rising on Fed dovish odds, and a 33% chance of a rate hike this Wednesday.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Ben discusses SLB rising 5% after beating on broad-based international drilling activity with its Data Center Solutions business on track to exceed $1 billion annualized run rate this year and $2 billion by end of 2027, Intel's after-hours pop fading as CapEx ballooned to over $20 billion for 2026 with 2027 significantly higher despite strong Client and Data Center results, Tenet Healthcare soaring 16% on a massive EPS guidance raise from Medicaid supplemental payments in TX and CA, HCA falling 3% on payer mix headwinds from ACA coverage losses, and NextEra reiterating all guidance through 2035 as power demand accelerates.


Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:
http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefing

Please see disclosures:
https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure