Tom and Moe boycott Star Wars Day and jump into the analysis of the Fed’s decision and rhetoric from the announcement yesterday afternoon. What started as a neutral announcement quickly turned hawkish as Chairman Powell fielded questions. What does this announcement mean for the terminal rate and how will the economy and the market respond?

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Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss the continued difficulty within the banking system, earnings reports out of AMD, F, and SBUX, some favorable data coming out of Eli Lilly in regard to their new Alzheimer’s drug, some economic data, and the looming Fed decision.

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Andrew and Tom discuss ISM Manufacturing numbers as they have stabilized in spite of the economic uncertainty. JOLTS report later today, as well as a FED meeting upcoming tomorrow. The FDIC weighs a new program to raise deposit insurance for payroll and business payments.

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Ben and Tom discuss First Repulic Bank going into FDIC receivership. JPMorgan assumes assests, as FRC is the biggest US bank failure since 2008. Charlie Munger comments that banks are no where near the same debacle as 2008, with the primary issue currently being a result of business mistakes rather than economic crisis. Commercial real estate is on its way downward.

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Ben and Tom have a special guest, Molly Russell join the call. GDP results show a large growth in personal consumption (the largest growth since Q2 of 2021), and there was also a large bump in government spending. Private investment took a huge hit with a decline of 12.5% in Q1 of this year.

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GDP comes in lower than anticipated showing the overall economy continues to slow, LLY, CAT, and NOC report quality earnings for the quarter, with some other big players waiting to report this evening, and the reaction of the bond market on the heels of this GDP data.

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Discussion around First Republic continues as the bank is running out of time and options, and earnings reports from some of the largest companies in the US begin to roll in, including Google, Microsoft, Texas Instruments, and Visa

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Discussion centers around the report out of First Republic Bank and the implications of that data for the rest of the banking system. A number of other companies reported earnings including some consumer facing brands like Pepsi and GM, as well as some names in energy. What do these reports say about the state of the consumer? Will energy continue to march higher?

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Ben and Tom discuss the news of Bed Bath and Beyond’s bankruptcy, the downgrade of a number of small banks by Moody’s, Tesla’s decision to raise their capital spending forecast, steady earnings out of Coca-Cola, and a massive lineup of earnings over the rest of the week.

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Ben, Andrew, and Tom discuss the current state of the Eurozone, as inflation continues to create issues in several places outside of the US. PG reports growth across the past quarter, RF grows as well, HCA in the positive, and SLB coming in down a single percentage point.

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