How powerful is propaganda—really?

In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Gavin Wilde, a former White House official and U.S. intelligence analyst, about why we consistently overestimate the impact of fake news, disinformation, and "information warfare."

From World War I and Edward Bernays to Russian hybrid warfare, social media bots, and AI-generated deepfakes, Wilde argues that propaganda is far less decisive than we like to believe.

We discuss:

• Why democracies struggle with persuasion and media literacy

• How Russia exploits existing social fractures rather than creating them

• Why calling out disinformation can sometimes backfire

• Why "ignoring it" might be a more rational strategy than constant outrage

The conversation also explores AI, deepfakes, hybrid warfare, and the limits of deterrence in the information age—challenging many of today’s dominant assumptions.

Timestamps:

00:00 — Why ignoring propaganda might be the most rational response

00:29 — Introduction: Gavin Wilde on propaganda, Russia, and hybrid warfare

00:53 — What propaganda actually is (and how it differs from persuasion)

01:04 — World War I, democracy, and the birth of modern propaganda

03:40 — Edward Bernays, psychology, and “torches of freedom”

05:10 — Propaganda as belonging, not mind control

06:29 — Propaganda in democracies vs. autocracies

06:50 — Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and reinforcing existing beliefs

09:18 — The internet, bots, deepfakes, and how the game supposedly changed

09:57 — Computing, social science, and the myth of predictable persuasion

12:20 — Why propaganda and advertising oversell their own effectiveness

13:50 — Russia, hybrid warfare, and election interference

14:17 — Do we know Russia interferes in Western elections?

15:30 — Soviet history and the roots of Russian information warfare

17:32 — Opportunism vs. grand Kremlin strategy

18:58 — The risks of overestimating foreign interference

19:28 — Why blaming propaganda undermines democratic agency

21:35 — Exploiting existing divisions & the Doppelgänger operation

23:10 — When exposing disinformation backfires

24:40 — Policy takeaway: why “ignore it” may be the best option

25:58 — Should democracies fight back with information warfare?

26:11 — Why information warfare is fundamentally autocratic

27:30 — Telling a better democratic story (not just better facts)

29:24 — Kinetic hybrid warfare: sabotage, terrorism, and fear

31:34 — Attribution, deterrence, and why resilience matters more

34:10 — Artificial intelligence, deepfakes, and the “dog that didn’t bark”

36:51 — What we still get wrong about human behavior and propaganda

37:54 — Closing remarks

The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus offers deep dives into geopolitics and international relations. We provide serious political commentary on foreign policy challenges, modern warfare, and global security.

Can Europe defend itself without the United States? The uncomfortable reality is that Europe’s security architecture is completely dependent on Washington—and that foundation is cracking.In this episode of The Next Best, Marcel Dirsus speaks with Max Bergmann (Director at CSIS and former US diplomat) about the depth of this military dependence. They break down exactly what would have to change if Washington steps back, covering the "fatal flaws" in European defense—from procurement failures and intelligence sharing to the growing risk of a prolonged war with Russia.Topics Discussed:• The Command Problem: Why Europe lacks a unified military structure.• The NATO Paradox: How the alliance entrenched US leadership in European defense.• Industrial Failure: Why increased spending isn't translating into stockpiles.• The "Euro Eyes" Problem: Europe’s reliance on US intelligence and logistics.• Future Scenarios: What happens if there is a rupture in US–EU relations?Chapters:00:00 Intro00:30 Europe, NATO, and US security dependence01:18 Post-WWII origins of Europe’s defence model05:03 Why European militaries declined after the Cold War07:02 The real source of Europe’s military dependency09:49 US troops in Europe and rapid reaction forces13:09 Can a pan-European force work?16:49 Who decides? The political control problem19:56 Why Europe stopped thinking strategically21:50 Defence procurement and industrial fragmentation27:03 Ammunition, stockpiles, and production capacity30:32 Ukraine and the war of attrition problem33:04 Intelligence, “Euro Eyes,” and hybrid warfare37:08 US–EU relations and the risk of rupture40:04 Are European leaders responding fast enough?43:20 Final thoughtsIf you’re interested in geopolitics, European security, and how power actually works, subscribe to The Next Best with Marcel Dirsus.

Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Tim Weiner joins Marcel Dirsus to discuss his book, The Mission: The CIA in the 21st Century.

This episode is a deep dive into the CIA, the failures of the War on Terror, and the future of modern warfare. Weiner traces the agency’s evolution from the Cold War through 9/11, revealing how fear drove the CIA into torture, secret prisons, and paramilitary operations that reshaped America’s moral standing.

He argues that while the agency has had tactical successes—like dismantling nuclear smuggling networks and stealing Vladimir Putin’s invasion plans for Ukraine—it faces a strategic crisis.

The conversation warns of a catastrophic intelligence failure fueled by Donald Trump’s rejection of intelligence, ideological purges within the national security apparatus, and China’s surveillance-driven operations.

Timestamps:

00:00 – Vladimir Putin’s shadow war across Europe

00:20 – Introduction: Tim Weiner & The Mission

00:49 – The CIA after the Cold War and before 9/11

01:01 – Ignored warnings about Al-Qaeda and Bin Laden

02:59 – The Bush administration’s obsession with Saddam Hussein

03:29 – Iraq, neoconservatives, and the democracy delusion

04:20 – How 9/11 transformed the CIA

04:49 – Fear, raw intelligence, and the road to war

06:36 – Torture, black sites, and “enhanced interrogation”

07:17 – How the CIA justified torture

09:26 – Did torture actually work?

09:41 – The A.Q. Khan nuclear smuggling operation

11:26 – Pakistan, the ISI, and playing both sides

12:47 – The CIA’s lost focus on Russia and China

13:14 – Russia, political warfare, and the 2016 election

15:17 – Stealing Putin’s Ukraine invasion plans

17:39 – CIA support for Ukraine before and after the invasion

18:02 – Why subscribing helps the podcast

18:15 – How the CIA rebuilt Ukraine’s intelligence services

20:18 – Trump, Putin, and spheres of influence

21:11 – Authoritarianism and the logic of force

22:20 – Trump vs. intelligence agencies

23:05 – Ideological purges inside the CIA

25:35 – China’s intelligence services and surveillance strategy

27:45 – CIA successes—and failures—against China

29:04 – What CIA officers are really like

31:38 – Democracy, dictatorship, and a personal warning

31:49 – Closing remarks

About The Next Best:

Deep dives into geopolitics, international relations, and history with political scientist Marcel Dirsus. If you found this conversation valuable, please subscribe and leave a comment.

The Baltic region is Europe's most dangerous geopolitical flashpoint. From the Suwałki Gap to the stationing of German combat troops in Lithuania, we explore the geopolitical stakes of a potential conflict between Russia and NATO.

Political scientist Marcel Dirsus speaks with Oliver Moody, Berlin correspondent for The Times, to analyze the strategic vulnerability of Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.

00:00 Russia’s Hybrid War Against Europe

00:31 Why the Baltic Region Is Europe’s Geopolitical Flashpoint

01:00 Baltic: NATO, Russia, and Europe’s Future

01:24 Baltic States History: From Empire to Independence

03:07 How Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania Broke from the USSR

04:40 Why the West Didn’t Support Baltic Independence in 1990

05:36 Why the Baltic States Chose NATO and the EU

06:11 NATO Expansion and Western Fears of Provoking Russia

07:22 Why Defending the Baltic States Is So Difficult

09:39 What Europe Can Learn from the Baltic States

10:03 Estonia’s Digital State and Economic Transformation

12:14 Why Copy-Paste Policy Fails in Europe

13:40 How Russia’s Ukraine War Changed Northern Europe

15:47 Baltic Power and Influence Inside the European Union

17:56 Poland, Power Politics, and Europe’s Strategic Limits

19:57 Why Russia Didn’t Stop Finland and Sweden Joining NATO

21:56 Is Europe Already in a Hybrid War with Russia?

22:17 Russian Sabotage, Espionage, and Hybrid Attacks Explained

23:26 Could Russia Invade Estonia? NATO’s Worst-Case Scenario

23:47 Why Subscribing Helps the Podcast

24:04 How a NATO–Russia War Could Begin

26:05 NATO Troops in the Baltics: Tripwire or Real Deterrence?

28:05 Finland’s Total Defense Model Explained

29:53 Why Europe Is Unprepared for Civil Defense

32:25 Germany’s Rearmament and Europe’s Historic Fears

34:39 What US Politics Mean for Europe’s Security

36:30 Could NATO Collapse Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?

37:38 If America Leaves Europe: Unity or Fragmentation?

39:32 Why the Baltic Region Shapes Europe’s Future

41:08 Understanding Russia Through an Exiled Russian Writer

42:51 Outro

In this episode:

• The strategic importance of the Suwałki Gap

• Why Germany is deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania

• Hybrid Warfare & Grey Zone Tactics: How Russia destabilizes the region

• The reality of the Russian threat to the Baltic states

• NATO's defense strategy in Northeastern Europe

• Historical context: The Soviet occupation and its legacy

• What we can learn from Poland, Finland and Estonia

About the Guest:

Oliver Moody is the Berlin correspondent for The Times, covering German and Northern European politics. His reporting often focuses on security policy and the shifting geopolitical landscape in Europe.Subscribe for more serious conversations on geopolitics & history.

My guest

Book: https://www.johnmurraypress.co.uk/titles/oliver-moody/baltic/9781399814270/

Twitter: https://x.com/olivernmoody

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

How the U.S. turned banks, the dollar, and tech supply chains into a weapon that isolates entire countries without firing a shot.

Edward Fishman is the author of "Chokepoints" and a former member of the Secretary of State's Policy Planning Staff. We discuss how the US transformed the global financial system into a weapon, the history of economic statecraft from naval blockades to smart sanctions, and the invisible infrastructure of the US dollar. We also cover the origins of the Iran sanctions campaign, how secondary sanctions force allies to comply, and whether the overuse of these tools threatens the dollar's future dominance.

Lastly, we discuss US attempts to wage economic warfare against China and what America may do if Beijing decides to invade Taiwan.

00:00 Intro: Threatening shipping companies

01:23 From naval blockades to smart sanctions

03:35 How globalization created "Chokepoints"

06:20 The Invisible Infrastructure (How the Dollar actually works)

10:04 Weaponized Interdependence

13:26 The Iran Model: Stuart Levy & the Treasury's realization

18:26 Why European banks obey US law (Secondary Sanctions)

21:19 Deterrence vs. rollback: what sanctions achieved in Iran

24:27 The bipartisan “sanctions work” lesson—and overreach risks

24:43 The sanctions‑relief paradox after the JCPOA

25:06 Why firms refused to re‑enter Iran despite relief

25:11 Business risk calculus and U.S. policy volatility

25:14 Polarization and foreign‑policy credibility

28:39 Russia: why objectives changed after 2014 and 2022

29:15 2014—Crimea, Donbas, Minsk, and deterrence limits

35:06 The “catastrophic success” concern35:26 2022 playbook: big banks, central bank, chips; crisis and calibration

38:42 Did the 2022 economic crisis distract Russia’s leadership?

39:05 China export controls: ZTE → Huawei → semiconductors

41:52 Taiwan question: limits of economic deterrence

42:14 Build resilience first: rare earths, batteries, chips

44:05 Is globalization over?

44:08 The mindset shift ending globalization’s foundation

45:49 Outro

Guest: Edward Fishman, Columbia UniversitySubscribe for more serious conversations on Geopolitics & History.

My guest

Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/726149/chokepoints-by-edward-fishman/

Website: https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/edward-fishman/

Twitter: https://x.com/edwardfishman

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

We're now multiple years into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and an end to the fighting isn't in sight. There are now negotiations, but where could these negotiations lead? What happens if Russia wins? And why did Putin decide to invade in the first place?

To answer these questions, I speak to Michael Kimmage. Michael is the director of the Kennan Institute in Washington, DC and a professor of history at the Catholic University of America. His latest book is called Collisions: The War in Ukraine and the Origins of the New Global Instability.

My guestWebsite: https://www.kennaninstitute.org/kimmageTwitter: https://x.com/mkimmage

MeNewsletter: https://thehundred.substack.comBook: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrantsTwitter: https://x.com/marceldirsusBlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Kori Schake. Kori has an incredibly impressive CV. She is currently the Director of Foreign and Defense Policy at the American Enterprise Institute, but she has also worked at the US Department of State, the Pentagon and the White House. She advised John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign and she has taught at Stanford and West Point.

Her latest book is called The State and the Soldier: A History of Civil-Military Relations in the United States. We talk about Trump, of course, but also George Washington, World War II, and the general difficulty of maintaining a powerful military that doesn't become a threat for democracy. I've admired Kori's work for many years, so I'm delighted that we had an opportunity to chat.

My guest

Website: https://www.aei.org/profile/kori-schake/

BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/kschake.bsky.social

Book: https://www.politybooks.com/bookdetail?book_slug=the-state-and-the-soldier-a-history-of-civil-military-relations-in-the-united-states--9781509570539

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.comI'll see you soon.

I'll see you soon.

Earlier this year, I read a book called Death is Our Business and this week I spoke to the author John Lechner. John is an interesting man. He used to work in investment banking and then he decided to become a journalist. So he moved to Africa and started reporting on Russian mercenaries.

John got kidnapped at some point, but along the way he learned quite a few languages. He speaks fluent Russian, advanced Turkish, and conversational Chechen, as well as Sango, which is the most important language in the Central African Republic.

In this episode, we talk about the role of the Wagner Group in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Yevgeny Prigozhin's march on Moscow, and the growing role of private military companies in international politics.

My guest

Website: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com

Book: https://www.johnlechnerauthor.com/death-is-our-business

Twitter: https://x.com/JohnLechner1

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

Hey, it's Marcel Dirsus and this is The Next Best.

I spoke to Charles Hecker this week. Charles has spent 40 years traveling and working in the Soviet Union and Russia. He speaks fluent Russian and he just wrote a book called Zero Sum.

At first glance, the book is about international business in Russia. And it is, but it is also a lens to look at political and economic developments more generally. We spoke about the chaos of the early 1990s. Western governments pushing their companies to invest in Russia and the impact that closer engagement with Moscow had on our own societies. I enjoyed the book. I enjoyed talking to Charles and I hope you enjoy our discussion.

Let's go.

My guest

Website: https://www.charleshecker.com

Book: https://www.charleshecker.com/purchase-links

Twitter: https://x.com/Charles_Hecker

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/charleshecker.bsky.social

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.

My guest this week is Steve Coll. Steve is a senior editor at The Economist and he has written nine books. He has won the Pulitzer Prize not once, but twice. His most recent book is about Saddam Hussein, the CIA and America's invasion of Iraq. It is called The Achilles Trap. 1

In this episode, we talk about Saddam Hussein's childhood, chemical weapons use against Iran, and a series of miscalculations that ultimately led to war. I had lot of fun talking to Steve, and the discussion is relevant beyond America and Iraq, because misunderstanding the opposite side can still lead to tragedy. Let's go.

My guest

Book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/602066/the-achilles-trap-by-steve-coll/

Me

Newsletter: https://thehundred.substack.com

Book: https://www.marceldirsus.com/tyrants

Twitter: https://x.com/marceldirsus

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/marceldirsus.com

I'll see you soon.