The Numbers

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.

We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!

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The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz!

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This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?

We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.

We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.

Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.

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This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.

In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

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This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?

We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.

In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

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It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.

We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.

In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

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A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.

(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)

We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests Éric with a Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.