The Numbers

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real.

But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hit their ceiling and just how solid their support really is. We also break down the difficult situation Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats find themselves in.

Starting this week and going straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to make sense of what is happening. We also discuss results from two provincial byelections held in Quebec and Manitoba this week.

Starting next week straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away.

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavily favoured to win, plus we discuss some new polling out of Quebec. Then, Philippe has a Quiz on past Liberal leadership contests.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win.

The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predicted. But the NDP still managed to squeeze a lot of seats out of a lot less of the vote, as incumbency ruled the day in what was an otherwise status quo election. We try to make some sense out of how the NDP managed to defy expectations. And what do we make of the performance of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals — good enough to regain recognized party status, but not good enough to get their leader elected?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the wild federal polls that have been published over the last few days. We also discuss the Liberal leadership race, the resignations of two Atlantic premiers and give our final assessment of the Ontario election campaign. Doug Ford’s PCs are heading to a majority victory, but what is going to happen to Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and Marit Stiles’s NDP?

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits.

And in Ontario, Marit Stiles’s NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie’s and the Ontario Liberals’ to lose.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the latest federal and Ontario polling numbers, as well as break down some new fundraising data from the Liberal leadership race. We also chat about an upcoming Manitoba byelection and polls out of British Columbia and Yukon. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz!

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic and exciting (sarcasm) Ontario election campaign, as well as a byelection call in Quebec and some new polls out of Alberta and British Columbia.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

https://youtu.be/sakffqWeHhY

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundraising figures for 2024 and new developments in the Liberal leadership contest. Then, we break down where things stand in the ongoing Ontario election campaign and take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube. https://youtu.be/9vqTM_CtYZo

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days.

While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we say with any certainty?

We also take a look at the state of the Liberal leadership race and a new poll out of Quebec that has good news for the Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois but, conversely, bad news for the Quebec sovereignty movement.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.