The Option Block

The Option Block 772 - Still A Market For Crazy People

• TSLA, AAPL, AMZN all in the news.
• VIX still eerily flat.
• What were the Top 10 OB Episodes of 2018? Tune in to find out.

Odd Block

Today we review the following unusual activity:

• DAN call love
• EXEL call love
• CSOD call love

Strategy Block

• Uncle Mike's advice - in a nutshell Stay Vertical

Mail Block

• Gauging your thoughts about AAPL at these levels
• Answering your questions about the mystery window after the close to exercise options on expiration.

TRADING BLOCK

VIX: 207k, SPY: 1.7M, SPX: 694k, QQQ: 476k

MVP of the Year:

We've got quite the horse race now to see who will be crowned the most valuable company by the end of the year.

Amazon was briefly number one today, but closed in the second spot. Now we have:

$MSFT at 860.43 billion market cap. - 779.2B on 12/31

$AAPL at 877.04 billion market cap. - Now 748.5B on 12/31

$AMZN at 866.63 billion market cap. - 734B on 12/31

ODD BLOCK

Put love in Avis Budget Group Inc. (CAR)

Call love in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY)

Opening call sale in Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) - from 11/26

STRATEGY BLOCK

Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses selling call spreads.

MAIL BLOCK

#QOTW: Those $AAPL Jan 150 puts that everyone sold in our last poll for $2 are now ITM. So our question is - what do you do now? Do you keep the stock around $148? Sell covered calls to "wheel out?" Roll or close the position? Let us know here

- Happily buy $AAPL at $148

- Wheel out w/ Covered Call

- Roll Put down

- Close position

Question from NN56 - Have you used Robinhood for options? What's your impression? The impressions of your listeners?

AROUND THE BLOCK

Originally published January 30, 2018

Trading Block: VIX is back into the 13 handle.

Earnings this week:

• Wednesday - FB, Microsoft
• Thursday - Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Alibaba
• The ORATS earnings report for 1/29/2018

Odd Block: More Jan 2019 50 "Catastrophe" puts in Tesla Motors (TSLA). Size call diagonal in Anheuser Busch Inbev NV (BUD). Near-term call paper in Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL).

Mail Block: Options question of the week

Earnings Season is upon us once again! It's time for #Tech to put its best foot forward. Which big #tech names are you looking to sling some #options on this week?

• Amazon ($AMZN)
• Microsoft ($MSFT)
• Alphabet ($GOOGL)
• Facebook ($FB)

Listener questions and comments:

• Question from Michael Smith - Any recommendations on where I can find help on calculating implied move into earnings?

Around the Block/Economic Reports this Week:

• Jan 30: Consumer Confidence
• Jan 31: Chicago PMI, FOMC Meeting
• Feb 1: Jobless Claims
• Feb 2: Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment, Factory Orders

Trading Block: A look back at the year in trading

• The worst holiday week ever?
• Dow rallies 1,000 points, logging its biggest single-day point gain ever

2018 YEAR END REVIEW

MVP of the Year: Now we've got quite the horse race to see who will be crowned the most valuable company by the end of the year. Amazon was briefly number one today, but closed in the second spot. Now we have:

• MSFT at 860.43 billion market cap. - NOW 753B
• AAPL at 877.04 billion market cap. - NOW 721B
• AMZN at 866.63 billion market cap. - NOW 693B

Mail Block: Options question of the week.

The final #QOTW for 2018 is a big one! Time to play along w/ #VolatilityViews and dust off your #CrystalBall. Quite simply - where do you think $VIX will close for 2019? Bonus points: Reply/DM/Email w/ your specific pick. Closest (within 1pt) will win Fabulous Prizes.

• Low: 8-11.99
• Normal: 12 -16.99
• Elevated: 17- 23
• Very Elevated: > 23

Around the Block: What to look forward to in 2019?

TRADING BLOCK

Fed raises rates again - hints at slower raises to come, but not enough for the markets. Chair Powell pretty much says the Fed doesn't need to respond to Trump or the market.

Most active:

SPY - 3.54M (ADV 3.72M)

VIX - 177k (584K ADV)

Earnings Highlights:

Thursday - Conagra, Nike

Friday - Carmax

ODD BLOCK

Tesla put summary

Call love in (PG)

Call love in (EXEL)

Put love in (GNW)

MAIL BLOCK

#Options #QOTW - Which upcoming #Volatility product are you most excited about trading in 2019? Or are you content to stay with the original despite lingering issues?

- #SPIKES

- #Realday/ #RealVol

- #Voldex/ #Skewdex

- I'll stick with $VIX

Comment from StockCats - 6 trading days left in the year…

Comment from TinSoldier - RE: Disney - Stock buybacks are not happening, but you have to be blind not to see future growth in every business segment(media, parks, studio)

Comment from Danny_Desert - RE: Disney - I can give a couple trillion why it won't.

Comment from Koopus - Recent market jolts is when fake & bloated stocks like TSLA will race to the bottom!

Comment from PaulDrew2006 - Uncle Mike's comment that this is a market for crazy people - Not really, smart people will be buying a sale

Comment from Scott Somer: 10,000 Jan 18th $XLF 22 puts have traded….$SPY STILL has 5 dollar expected move in Dec 21 cycle.

AROUND THE BLOCK

Trading Block: Looming government shutdown spooks the market.

Most active today:

• SPY - 2.1M (ADV 3.44M)
• VIX - 326k (603K ADV)

Earnings Highlights:

• Monday - Oracle (after bell)
• Tuesday - Darden, Navistar, FedEx
• Wednesday - Rite Aid, General Mills
• Thursday - Conagra, Nike
• Friday - Carmax

Odd Block: Tesla put summary, opening call sale in (ONB), opening call love in (CG) and put love in Macy's (M)

Strategy Block: Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses 1256 contracts and wash sales.

Mail Block: Options qusetion of the week

Which upcoming volatility product are you most excited about trading in 2019? Or are you content to stay with the original despite lingering issues?

• SPIKES
• Realday/RealVol
• Voldex/Skewdex
• I'll stick with VIX

Listener question:

• Question from CodeLife10 - What is your thought on JPM tomorrow?

Around the Block: What's on the radar for the pre-holiday week?

Trading Block: A mixed day today after a crazy week.

Most active today:

• SPY - 1.62M (ADV 3.44M)
• VIX - 332k (603k ADV)

Earnings Highlights:

• Monday - Stitch Fix
• Tuesday - Dave & Busters, American Eagle Outfitters
• Wednesday - Vera Bradley, Peak Resorts
• Thursday - Costco, Adobe

And, Apple falls after Chinese court bans sale of most iPhones

Odd Block: Tesla put summary, put breakdown in General Electric Company (GE), call sale in Tenet Healthcare Corp (THC), and call love in Liveramp Holdings Inc (RAMP)

Mail Block: Options question of the week

Everyone loves trading $AAPL #Options. So the #OpenInterest is always very high. But a few interesting #Options dominate the rest. What do you think is the largest open position in $AAPL right now? No cheating - try to use your #SpideySense.

• Jan 2020 200 Call
• Jan 250 Call
• Dec 180 Put
• Jan 100 Put

Listener questions and comments: Comment from Austyn41: Good shows today. The experienced and animated host makes it very entertaining and interesting to listen to.

• Question from Bjorn L. - You still liking apple 150 puts here?
• Comment from Mark Brant - Bought AAPL 8d/15d Calendar Straddle for $1.40! On a nice streak with this strategy. Multi bagger profit potential if you get lucky. I have come to favor +EV plays that have big upside but uncertainty per trade.
• Question from Max Lee - What do you think about stock replacement in SPY here? How far out would you go?

Around the Block/This Week in the Markets:

• Dec 14 - Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Options news you can use for Tuesday, December 11, 2018

Trading Block: Another day, another selloff

Most active today:

• SPY - 2.71M (ADV 3.44M)
• VIX - 299k (603K ADV)

Earnings Highlights:

• Monday - Stitch Fix
• Tuesday - Dave & Busters, American Eagle Outfitters
• Wednesday - Vera Bradley, Peak Resorts
• Thursday - Costco, Adobe

MVP of the Year: Now we've got quite the horse race to see who will be crowned the most valuable company by the end of the year. Amazon was briefly number one today, but closed in the second spot. Now we have:

• AAPL at 877.04 billion market cap.
• AMZN at 866.63 billion market cap.
• MSFT at 860.43 billion market cap.

Odd Block: Tesla put summary; March put love in Tanger Factory Outlet Centers Inc. (SKT); puts lighting up in HD Supply Holdings Inc (HDS), and; call love in Hydrogenics Corporation (HYGS)

Strategy Block: Uncle Mike Tosaw discusses cash as a position.

Mail Block: Options question of the week.

Everyone loves trading $AAPL #Options. So the #OpenInterest is always very high. But a few interesting #Options dominate the rest. What do you think is the largest open position in $AAPL right now? No cheating - try to use your #SpideySense.

• Jan 2020 200 Call
• Jan 250 Call
• Dec 180 Put
• Jan 100 Put

Listener questions and comments:

• Comment by Austyn41 - You've been nuggeted!
• Question from RTS3 - Mark said he used to trade Activision a lot. Outside of trading it, do you also play their games? If so what's on your playlist these days? Also the Rock Lobster is a cool nickname. B52s?

Around the Block/This Week in the Markets:

• Dec 11 - PPI
• Dec 12 - CPI, Treasury Budget
• Dec 13 - Jobless Claims
• Dec 14 - Retail Sales, Industrial Production

Trading Block: A look back at the week in trading

• Tariff Man spooks the market…again.
• Exchanges were closed on Wednesday, December 5 in observance of a National Day of Mourning for the late George HW Bush.
• Netflix blew $100M on Friends reruns for one year!

Most active this week:

• SPY - 3.01M (ADV 1.43M)
• VIX - 476K

Earnings Highlights:

• Tuesday - Dollar General, HP
• Wednesday - Five Below
• Thursday - The Kroger Co., Broadcom, Michaels, Ulta
• Friday - Big Lots

Odd Block: Tesla put summary, opening Dec put love in Signet Jewelers Ltd. (SIG), opening Jan put love in Teradyne, Inc. (TER), and opening Feb call love in Lennar Corporation (LEN)

Mail Block: Listener questions and comments

• Question from Daleon - Hey! I'm something of an options noob but I'm learning from listening to you guys. Still haven't pulled the trigger on my first trade. My question - what's the best and easiest starting point for noobs? I mostly have SPY in my portfolio right now. Is it selling calls on SPY? Am I correct that those calls would be considered covered? Fun show. Also liking the playbook program.

Around the Block/This Week in the Markets:

• Dec 7 - Unemployment, Consumer Sentiment