Is the 4% rule actually causing people to work 5 to 10 years longer than they need to?

In this episode of The Planning for Retirement Podcast, Kevin Lao breaks down a series of real historical 40 year retirement backtests using withdrawal rates of 4%, 5%, 6%, and even 7%, and the results are shocking.

Using Portfolio Visualizer, Kevin tests how different withdrawal rates would have performed starting in 1986 through 2025, and then compares those results to what happens when you retire into a tougher market environment like the lost decade (starting in 2000).

This episode is all about the real retirement planning lesson most people miss:

👉 The market you retire into matters more than the rule you follow.

And having a flexible withdrawal strategy beats blindly following any one “safe withdrawal rate.”

In this episode, you’ll learn:

• Why the 4% rule was never meant to be personalized

• How a higher withdrawal rate can work in some retirement scenarios

• Why sequence of returns risk can destroy even a “safe” retirement plan

• How Social Security timing can reduce long-term portfolio risk

• Why spending often declines in retirement (go-go, slow-go, no-go years)

• How taxes and account types (taxable vs IRA vs Roth) impact retirement withdrawals

• Why guardrails and flexible income planning are the key to retiring confidently

If you're approaching retirement and trying to determine your safe withdrawal rate, this episode will help you understand what really matters, and why retirement planning isn’t about following one rule of thumb, it’s about building a plan that adapts.

Resources:

• Guardrails, 4 Decision Rules

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

What if you live to be 100 years old?

A lot of retirement plans assume your portfolio needs to last 15–25 years… maybe 30 if you’re being conservative. But if you retire at 60 (or earlier) and live to 100, that’s a 40-year time horizon in retirement — and it changes everything.

In this episode, I walk through five retirement planning considerations to address longevity risk for retirees in 2026 and beyond, including:

• How to build paychecks in retirement (not just a portfolio)

• Why getting too conservative can quietly increase risk over a long retirement

• How to think about Social Security, pensions, and annuities as guaranteed income tools

• Why long-term care planning is a logistics problem (that can become a money problem)

• Spending phases: go-go, slow-go, no-go

• And a legacy concept I love: giving with a warm hand instead of a cold one

📌 Free resource: I’m including a PDF in the show notes on the Guyton-Klinger “guardrails” decision rules (inflation rule, prosperity rule, portfolio rescue rule, portfolio management rule).

Guyton and Klinger Decision Rules

👍 If this was helpful, subscribe and leave a 5-star review on Spotify/Apple Podcasts — it helps us reach and impact more people.

Kevin Lao

Links:

Guyton and Klinger Decision Rules

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

Elon Musk went on the Moonshots podcast and said you don’t need to save for retirement anymore because AI + robots will make work optional and money won’t matter.

If you’re 55+, sitting on seven figures in a 401(k)/IRA, and you’re trying to figure out when you can stop working, travel more, and play more golf — this episode is for you.

In this video, I’ll:

• Play Elon’s quote and explain what’s going on

• Break down the key takeaways from the full interview (energy/solar, longevity, UHI)

• Explain why it’s a terrible idea to change your retirement plan based on a viral clip

• Give you 3 smarter moves you can make right now

The 3 smarter retirement moves:

1. Plan for longevity (modern medicine + AI could mean a longer retirement)

2. Plan for higher taxes (UHI / Social Security / Medicare strain = tax risk)

3. Plan for earlier retirement (AI disruption + layoffs could push you out sooner than expected)

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

Susan is 65, recently widowed, and has saved $2.1 million for retirement.

On paper, she’s more than fine… but emotionally, she doesn’t feel fine.

After watching her husband pass away, Susan is ready to retire five years earlier than planned so she can enjoy her “go-go years” while she still has her health.

But she’s terrified of one thing:

👉 Becoming a burden on her adult children.

In today’s episode, I walk you through Susan’s retirement plan inside our financial planning software and stress-test her biggest goals:

• Retiring ASAP

• Maximizing Social Security

• Traveling extensively for the next 10 years

• Gifting during her lifetime (“giving with a warm hand”)

• And protecting against the risk of long-term care later in life

By the end, you’ll hear the 7 key takeaways Susan needs to consider and how you can apply them to your own retirement plan.

✅ What We Cover In This Episode

Susan’s Retirement Goals (And The Real Conflict)

Susan wants to:

• retire immediately so she can travel now

• delay her own Social Security until age 70 to maximize lifetime income

• gift to her adult children (including down payment help)

• give to charity during her lifetime

• and still maintain full financial independence

Baseline Expenses + Go-Go Travel Plan

We build Susan’s plan around:

• $6,500/month baseline retirement spending

• healthcare cost assumptions (inflated higher than normal inflation)

• $20,000/year travel spending for 10 years (her go-go years)

Social Security Strategy for Widows

Susan may be able to:

• claim survivor benefits first

• delay her own benefit until age 70

• then switch to her maximum benefit for long-term protection against longevity and inflation

The Portfolio Reality (And Risk Tolerance vs Risk Capacity)

Susan’s portfolio was built around her late husband’s investing style:

• more aggressive than she’s comfortable with

• which creates stress right as she enters retirement

We walk through how shifting allocations can impact:

• success probability

• legacy potential

• and long-term-care resilience

The Monte Carlo Results (And What They Actually Mean)

Susan’s baseline plan is extremely strong — but as we add:

• $50,000 down payment gifts per child

• ongoing annual giving

• reduced investment risk

• and a long-term care event

…the plan changes fast.

And I explain why Monte Carlo “probability of success” is better framed as:

✅ “Probability of never needing to make an adjustment.”

The Long-Term Care Risk That Changes Everything

The biggest threat isn’t whether Susan can retire…

…it’s whether a long-term care event later in life hits during a market downturn.

This is why long-term care is often less of a “number” problem and more of a sequence-of-returns risk problem.

We discuss why long-term care insurance may give Susan something priceless:

➡️ permission to spend confidently now.

Roth Conversions + Tax Strategy (Without Getting Too Deep)

Susan has a potential Roth conversion window between retirement and RMD age.

We also talk about:

• the tax problem of leaving large IRAs to adult children

• why the kids’ tax bracket matters more than your own

• and how strategies like QCDs (Qualified Charitable Distributions) can play a role

I hope you find this episode useful. Make sure to share this video / podcast with someone else who is in a similar situation.

-Kevin

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

2025 reminded us of something important: markets don’t move based on headlines or how we “feel” about the economy — they move based on earnings, inflation, interest rates, and policy.

And if you’re close to retirement, the goal isn’t to predict the market perfectly.

The goal is to know what actually matters and build a plan that works whether markets are great, average, or ugly.

In today’s episode of the Planning for Retirement Podcast, I start by recapping what we said to watch in 2025, what actually played out… and then I walk through six key themes that could drive markets in 2026.

✅ We’ll cover:

• How tax policy could act as a tailwind (or a temporary sugar high)

• Why the labor market matters more than the unemployment rate

• What the Fed is likely to do next — and why Powell’s replacement could be a big deal

• Why AI is fueling earnings growth and margin expansion (and what that means for markets)

• Why bonds are back — and why fixed income matters even more for retirees

• Why international stocks outperformed in 2025, and the danger of recency bias

By the end, you’ll have a clear framework for what to watch in 2026 — and how to stay focused as a long-term retirement investor.

I hope you enjoy it!

-Kevin

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

PFR Nation,

We are rewinding the tape ALL the way back to the very beginning! Here, I’ll break down the common Tax Traps of traditional 401ks and IRAs. This was episode #2, so there’s a good chance you haven’t heard this one! I hope you find it useful and drop a comment with your thoughts. How do you navigate these tax traps in retirement?

Happy New Year!

-Kevin

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

Do you ever wish you could get inside the minds of existing retirees to ask them what their experience has been?  Or, ask them what they wish they would have known before they quit their day job?  This episode is for you!

In this episode of the Planning for Retirement podcast, I’ll share 50 truths that retirees wish they knew before they quit their day jobs.  Some of these are straight from the horse’s mouth, some are my observations in serving retirees for more than a decade, and some are research-based that I uncovered during this process.  I’ll cover a range of topics including finding purpose in retirement, the misconception of retirement expenses going down, the importance of exercise and brain stimulation, the high costs of healthcare in retirement, tax traps, and much more. 

Thanks for tuning in!  Make sure to subscribe to give me a follow on social media and company newsletter below.  We’re also getting the YouTube side of things going and I’ll be posting one offs in bet

Links Referenced in Episode:

• ⁠⁠50 Truths Retirees Wish They Knew Before They Quit Their Day Job⁠

• ⁠⁠Purpose and Successful Retirement Transition Questionnaire⁠⁠

• ⁠Shocks and the Unexpected:  An Important Factor in Retirement⁠ 

• ⁠The life expectancy of older couples and surviving spouses⁠ 

• ⁠How to plan for rising healthcare costs⁠

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

PFR Nation,

In this Q+A edition of the podcast, we are going to tackle some key common issues:

• Underspending in Retirement and how to prepare for this mentally.
• How do annuities fit in your retirement income plan?
• Should I contribute Pre-Tax or Roth funds for retirement?

I hope you enjoy this one! Let me know if you have any thoughts about my takes.

Thank you for tuning in.

-Kevin

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

If you are retiring before you turn 65, the healthcare gap is probably top of mind. In today’s episode, I’ll talk about 6 paths to healthcare coverage to bridge the gap until you are eligible for Medicare. I hope it helps.

FYI, I am NOT a health insurance expert! This episode was made possible because my current premium was skyrocketing 70% next year, so I decided to shop it. However, each state will have its own complexities and nuances. Nonetheless, I hope this gets you started in the right direction.

Kevin

Resources:

• Roth Conversion Trap on ACA Premium Tax Credits (video)

• Don’t fall off the cliff. Explaining the cliff for ACA premium tax credits in 2026 and beyond (video)

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This is for general education purposes only and should not be considered as tax, legal or investment advice.

Advisor’s Alpha is Wrong!

Vanguard, the King of NO fees, puts out an annual study where they attempt to quantify the value of a comprehensive financial advisor. I can attest to many of the services mentioned, but it is very difficult, if not impossible, to determine the exact % of additional value added those services can provide. In any event, I think Vanguard actually misses the mark on a few of these, particularly because of WHO you are (PFR Nation).

I also believe Vanguard fails to include one of the MOST important factors when considering the value of a financial advisor. And yes, I acknowledge that I am a VERY biased source on this topic. However, you might find it surprising where I land on some of the points Vanguard makes.

I hope you find it useful!

Kevin

Resources:

• Vanguard Advisor’s Alpha

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