The Pollsters

The Pollsters

By Margie Omero & Kristen Soltis AndersonBusinessNewsPolitics
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The Pollsters episodes

  • #88i: Mark Blumenthal from Survey Monkey is our Justin Timberlake

    This week we talk to The Pollsters' version of SNL's Justin Timberlake or Tom Hanks: Survey Monkey's Mark Blumenthal! He updates us on all thinks Monkey.

     
    The Survey Monkey map The Survey Monkey Blog Mark's piece on likely voter modeling More on Survey Monkey's methodology Follow Mark on Twitter

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    27 min
  • #88: Our Senate-sational Special

    It’s your lucky day! We’re doing a special Monday episode since we may not be able to find time later in the week. So check out our Senate-sational special!  Aldo, don't orget  to follow @margieomero & the #walmartmoms hashtag for groups Tuesday night.

     
    Poll of the week
    Is Trump just making excuses, or might the election be rigged? A new ABC poll finds yet another big party divide.
    ABC News poll on Clinton’s double-digit lead  
    The senate!
    The Upshot compares all the the handicappers and forecasters into one giant clip-n-save, or click-n-spin.
    NBC/WSJ poll on congressional preferences The upshot on Senate election forecast The New York Times on Senate election poll  
    Pennsylvania
    The New York Times on Pennsylvania Senate race Politico on Pennsylvania Senate race The New York Times endorsement of Katie McGinty  
    Indiana
    The New York Times on Indiana Senate race Politico on Evan Bayh’s Collapse Associated Press on Bayh and job hunt Politico on Bayh’s Indiana address  
    New  Hampshire
    The New York Times on New Hampshire Senate race Politico on New Hampshire Senate race  
    North carolina
    The New York Times on North Carolina Senate race Politico on North Carolina Senate race  
    Missouri
    The New York Times on Missouri Senate race Politico on Missouri Senate race  
    Nevada
    The New York Times on Nevada Senate race Politico on Nevada Senate race  
    Florida
    The New York Times on Florida Senate race  
    We’ve got issues
    Gallup poll on candidates and key issues Pew Research Center on spouse’s preferences    
    Key Findings
    It’s never too early to prepare for your next campaign, folks. The trump effect downticket may not be as big as people think. But it’s definitely not helping. And if you’re not feeling like you hear enough about the issues, call your spouse.

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    48 min
  • #87: Nasty Woman vs One Bad Hombre

    The “Nasty Woman” vs. the “Bad Hombre.” Kristen & Marge are on west coast time. Now who’s the puppet!?

     
    Poll of the week
    It turns out you are entitled to your own facts. On that we agree, it seems.
    Pew Research Center on candidates and facts    
    The debates! They’re over!
    We made it through the final debate. So, uh, anything change?
    Pew Research center on fact checking CNN/ORC post-debate poll  
    Are you being rigged?
    Yikes! Will people trust the polling results?
    Morning Consult on rigging concerns  
    To Russia, with Love
    Changing views toward Russia among the GOP? What would Reagan say?
    Morning Consult/Politico poll on Russia  
    Tale of the tapes. Again
    Huffington Post on sexual assault Gallup poll on sexual assault NBC/SurveyMonkey poll on Trump’s respect for women Washington Post/ABC News poll on Trump’s treatment of women PRRI on imorality and professionalism  
    If kids could vote
    USA Today on Children’s presidential pick Sesame Street poll on Kindness and kids  
    Key findings:
    We’re almost there everyone! Surely we can at least agree on how many days are left till the election? (fact check: yes!) Is it okay to call someone nasty, or a bad hombre? Or to shout wrong at someone who isn’t wrong? What if you disagree with them on tax policy? (fact check: no!) Is it okay to fantasize about being in a pre-school election, or to daydream about what shows you’re going to binge watch after the election? (fact check: yes!)

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    43 min
  • #86: Stress polling & stress eating

    Well it's pretty crazy out there. Hold onto your crosstabs everyone. And don't forget you can see Margie in LA on 10/20 at the Ace Hotel with the fine folks at KCRW's Left Right & Center. Check it out here.

     
    Poll of the Week
    There's a reason we're going to focus on the tapes & the debate--it's one of the biggest news stories this year.
    Politico/Morning Consult National Poll  
    October Surprises
    The post-debate polling is bleak for Trump, but  not quite as volatile as the news. Maybe.
    Brietbart on post debate poll CNN/ORC poll on the second debate NBC SurveyMonkey poll on the the second debate NBC/WSJ poll on Trump’s tape Politico/Morning Consult on Trump’s tape Huffington Post/HuffPost Pollster on trump’s respect for women SurveyMonkey on Trump’s tapes The Atlantic on Trump and female voters Reuters/Ipsos Poll on Clinton’s marriage FiveThirtyEight poll on gender gap YouGov/Economist Poll on gender gap NBC/WSJ poll on GOP’s action on Trump Politico/Morning Consult on GOP’s action on Trump Morning Consult on Trump’s loyal supporters  
    McMuffin-mentum
    Mmm. McMuffins. Kristen's Muffin-map is driving Twitter crazy.
    Deseret news/Y2 Analytics poll on McMullin  
    Are you going crazy?
    You're not the only one feeling stressed out about this election. But are you the only one who believes a conspiracy theory?
    Washington Post on unproven rumors Washington Post on perceived partisan biases Politico on Trump’s mental health toll NYT Upshot: Your therapist may lean blue  
    Candy binge
    In times like these, we turn to candy.
    Influenster: each state’s Halloween favorite  
    Key Findings
    Let’s not get the message muddled here. The tapes are not about cursing, but about assault. That could explain some of the differences in results we’re seeing. And while the impact on the race is clear--the impact on the GOP’s fortunes...too soon to say. News is moving faster than public opinion, and public opinion moving faster than pollsters. Is the election giving you stress? Are you binge eating candy and McMuffins? Talk to the pollsters. Tell us how that makes you feel.

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    50 min
  • #85: The Taxman Cometh

    Hey we’re on Spotify now! Go check us out. Like ABC/This Week on Facebook so you can see our (mostly) weekly Facebook Live videos. And have you checked out our new website yet?

     
    Poll of the Week: Do you need an information diet
    Clay Johnson, call your office.
    NORC on news consumption  
    The Taxman is coming, just not for Donald Trump
    People care about Trump’s tax returns. But will it change their vote?
    SurveyMonkey on tax returns Quinnipiac on tax returns YouGov/Economist on top news stories  
    Return of the TV dads
    Dads square off, probably not changing the race much.
    ABC/SSRS on VP candidates NBC/SurveyMonkey on VP candidates CBS on Luntz focus group CNN focus group in Richmond CNN/ORC Instant poll Swing kittens say meow  
    The forecast is bleak, and we’re talking Donald, not Matthew
    Huffington Post has a new forecast
    Huffington Post forecast Huffington Post methodology Slate collection of forecasts  
    While the climate is, partisan
    Pew reveals major party differences in views toward climate change. Kristen sees, uh, a silver lining.
    Pew on Climate Change  
    Here’s something really scary
    Get ready for Halloween folks! Basically that means dressing like a superhero.
    NRF on Halloween costumes NRF on Halloween spending  
    Key Findings
    People are looking for more information sources about buying stuff than about politics. And that’s even before last night’s rockin’ VP debate! Even a bunch of kittens could tell you that Clinton’s had a post-debate bounce. The candidates may not be talking much about climate change, but don’t worry, there are still deep partisan divides anyway. You know what’s really scary? That political costumes are going to be pretty popular this year.

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    45 min
  • #84: Snap Polls. Snap Judgments?

    Hey guys! We’ll be on Spotify very soon. Check out our new website www.thepollsters.com & send us very nice emails about how we can make the resource page better!

     
    Poll of the week! Or maybe, “relevant pitch” of the week?
    How might you find independents on radio? Nielsen sent us some answers.
    Nielsen data on CNBC  
    Snap judgment
    So we had a debate. Who are you going to trust to find out who won: the polls? Or the other polls?
    Real Clear Politics on Luntz focus group WP informal focus group CNN/ORC post-debate poll PPP post-debate poll Morning Consult post-debate poll NBC/Survey Monkey post-debate poll Echelon poll YouGov post-debate poll Newer PPP post-debate poll NYT on post-debate polling Donald Trump on post-debate polling Brendan Nyhan on fact checking  
    Transition team
    Is this election bringing out the worst in people? Is it bringing out anyone to vote?l
    Monmouth poll on bringing out the worst Gallup on compromise Gallup on high hopes Gallup on interest in voting Pew on views toward the media Mediaite on media vs putin  
    Grilled cheese, spicy mochas, & the Simpsons
    Does Carl mainsplain to Mrs. Krabapple?
    Washington Post on grilled cheese The Simpsons, graphed on reddit  
    Key Findings:
    Did you have “poll denialism” on your debate bingo card! We will next time for sure. And everyone get your transition team ready. Not for the next president, but for the rest of america. Never mind m or manterrupting during the debate, what has been happening with the  Simpsons? We had no idea. Maybe Homestar Runner is better?  

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    50 min
  • #83: We can't WEIGHT for you to hear this episode!

    Hello new listener! Come for the 2016 polling, stay for the Brangelexit data. Check out our new website and follow us on Twitter or Facebook. We’re constantly pushing out the latest polls, and your reaction helps us figure out what to talk about.

     
    Poll of the week: Millennials & their furbabies.
    Forget about crazy cat ladies, there are now fun catboys. And did you know Kristen wrote the book on Millennials?
    Washington Post on Millennials & pets The Selfie Vote  
    2016
    The polls have tightened, but then maybe they’ve loosened? And new open end data from both Pew and Gallup.
    Slate average Gallup on news recall NYT on Clinton Foundation Pew on how people feel about the election YouGov on candidate extremism Gallup on confidence in government  
    Pollsters weigh in on weighting
    This was super cool! Really excited both of our firms got to be a part of it.
    NYT/Upshot on weighting  
    Brangelexit
    Um, we’re going to need some fresh data here.
    IMDB poll on Brad vs Angie Brangelina as a nickname YouGov Most admired people of 2016 Vanity Fair/60 Minutes who should adopt your children  
    Key findings:
    Who says Millennials are selfish? Half of millennial guys have cats! Maybe for Clinton no news is good news. If the polls are getting a little too tight for comfort, maybe you need to lose weight? If you don’t like the results of your poll. Just wait? Always good to see fellow pollsters weigh in? Who is going to get more of a post-breakup bounce: Brad or Angelina? We’re on it!!   And welcome new listeners!! Tweet us your complaints.

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    54 min
  • #82: Today's forecast: hot with a 100% chance of polls

    Mad-Man style, or Rhoda Morgenstern, either way we love this Medium post & review from Michelle Thomas of Javelina. We forgot all about the cat videos!

     
    Poll of the week: News alerts!
    Are you living in a media bubble? You might be if you think *everyone* is living in a bubble. And how many people get news alerts on their phone?
    Pew on news alerts NYT/Upshot on "echo chamber" Gallup on lack of trust in the media  
    Breaking: Morbid, er, Morning Consult poll
    This new Morning Consult poll leaves no stone unturned on the presidential health issue.
    Morning Consult on candidate health Morning Consult crosstabs  
    2016! Today’s forecast is...
    Today’s forecast looks a lot like yesterday’s forecast.
    Huffington Post/pollster averages Slate's poll of poll of polls The Upshot vs. Princeton vs. 538 FiveThirtyEight forecasts RCP vs. Huffington Post average methodology The "Primary Model"  
    Non-voters & new voters. More myths debunked
    Once you look at these Pew numbers, get ready to re-read The Selfie Vote.
    Pew on changing party compositions NYT/The Upshot on non-voters  
    The one poll in the world you could predict with certainty
    The internet meme that will never die.
    The Daily Mirror on Harambe McHarambeFace  
    Key Findings
    Today’s forecast looks a lot like yesterday’s forecast. But it’s not clear if it’s time yet to get out your umbrella. Lots of myth debunking going on out there. Check your assumptions folks! It’s a good thing we never did an online poll about the name of our show, or it may in fact become those two hens. When 2016 gets a little crazy, reflect on some simpler times, with cat videos, old 70s sitcoms, or back episodes of The Pollsters.

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    45 min
  • #81: A pollster on every corner

    With Labor Day behind us, we need to turn to Satchmo to make sense of the polling. Don’t miss our interview with the Monkey Cage’s John Sides. If you’re looking for some extra-credit reading on gerrymandering, check out this or this story.

     
    Back to school! Hit the books.
    What makes a student love their alma mater? Feeling like a professor “cares about people like you”--almost like in politics. And hit the tablets, or something.
    Gallup - Alumni Giving Pew - Reading  
    2016: Unskew this podcast
    Tuesday wasn’t any ordinary day. It was a day with a lot of new, sometimes divergent, polling. We try to figure out what’s going on.
    Huffpost Pollster - 2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Huffpost Pollster - 2016 General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson CNN/ORC @Pretefunkera tweet Washington Post/Survey Monkey  
    Everyone is miserable
    Is the campaign still getting you down? We feel you. But have you made a headline juicier than your data suggests? Well, we’re going to call you out then.
    Pew - Which candidate they’re against Gallup - GOP which candidate would be good president Ipsos/The Guardian  
    Polling among Latinos
    Lots of new polling among Latinos--are there real differences at work, or differences in methodology?
    Latino Decisions Gallup - Clinton Hispanic Advantage Smaller Among U.S-born Hispanics Washington Post on Latinos Huffpost Pollster - 2016 Florida President: Trump vs. Clinton Huffpost Pollster - 2016 Nevada President: Trump vs. Clinton Washington Post/ABC Poll  
    Is it too late to change our show name to “These Two Hens”?
    Spoiler: yes.
    The Guardian - Baby names  
    Key findings:
    Pollster culture very dominant. It's causing problems. If you don't do something about it, there will be pollsters on every corner. Which, for a lot of people, might be an improvement over following this election. If you really need a break--hit the books, or hit the tablet. Not such a catchy name. But you know what is a catchy name? The Pollsters, and we don’t regret it one bit.

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    41 min
  • #80i: John Sides has the keys to the Monkey Cage

    Media polls not enough data for you? Then you'll want to dig even deeper with John Sides & the crack political science team at The Monkey Cage blog. They're one of the top myth-debunkers around, and we were happy to talk to John about some of his past and future proejcts.

    Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post
    John Sides on Twitter
     

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    30 min

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