National security Republicans' "theory of security" might just kill us all in the name of deterrence.  House Democrats pass a defense budget that George W. Bush would be proud of.  China is decoupling from the US whether we like it or not.  Arms control is unravelling because the Trump administration is all neocons, ethno-nationalists, and multi-millionaires.  Also this episode: What the heck do foreign policy advisers do on presidential campaigns?  

World Politics Review Newsletter: https://about.worldpoliticsreview.com/undiplomatic/ 

Prediction Market:

• Will the U.S place meaningful sanctions on Turkey in response to their purchasing of Russian arms before the end of 2019? | No. 
• Following the Russian-Ukraine peace deal, will Russia withdraw active duty troops before the end of 2019? | Not a peace deal - it’s a ceasefire. No. 
• Will North Korea test an ICBM before the end of 2019? | No 

Notes and Sources:

• Ross Douthat on Republican foreign policy credibility: https://twitter.com/DouthatNYT/status/1201574412018950147
• Ankit Panda on international institutional revisionism: https://mobile.twitter.com/nktpnd/status/1204986200228089856
• Shadi Hamid on meritocracy and McKinsey: https://twitter.com/shadihamid/status/1203416084189196288
• Goose Lee on the Hong Kong protests and sex: https://twitter.com/Lee_Cobaj/status/1202209651665723396?fbclid=IwAR128MOLpR3C-YSKmnmN6Wn1Mwp_MqPwtL7grJwArCP68I_O0kn4-UWpVA4
• Jeffrey Lewis on nuclear weapons treaty: https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/inside-the-new-global-arms-race-washington-us-russia-china-nuclear-weapons-cyberwarfare