On Tuesday night, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will face off in their first debate. It goes without saying that the stakes are very high, as polls now show the two of them effectively tied, with perhaps a slight edge to Harris. Yet some analysts out there have made good arguments holding that the pieces really are in place for her to win this thing. We talked to Lakshya Jain of the data firm Split Ticket, who digs into what Harris has to accomplish at the debate—and why he’s cautiously optimistic that she will ultimately prevail.

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