The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

By Adam ChernoffSports News Sports News Football

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The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff episodes

April 07, 2025 NFL Draft Update: How will AFC Teams Pick Round 1?
Adam Chernoff goes through each AFC Team discussing how they may use their first round pick and gives and update on the odds for each.

Welcome! 0:00

AFC East 4:10

AFC North 11:41

AFC South 19:59

AFC West 27:50

Questions 37:30
44 min
April 04, 2025Which NFL teams *actually* got better this offseason? - With Kevin Cole of Unexpected Points
Kevin Cole joined the show to break down his offseason Improvement Index, a data-driven tool used to evaluate how NFL rosters have improved (or declined) year-over-year. His work at UnexpectedPoints.com has become must-read material for analytically-minded fans, bettors, and even NFL front office staff. Here are the key insights from our conversation:

What is Unexpected Points?

Kevin describes the site as catering to the "nerdy, numberier football fan." His content draws from past experience at PFF and DFS sites like RotoGrinders, focusing on analytics that aren't always directly tied to betting or fantasy, but absolutely inform both. In-season, he does deep game reviews and quarterback analysis. In the offseason, he shifts toward roster value, draft strategy, and team improvement projections.

How the Improvement Index Works
Core concept: The Index projects a team's upcoming season based on the prior year's roster, then adjusts for offseason changes using a plus-minus metric similar to the NBA.
Player value is measured using EPA-based on/off-field impact, smoothed through clustering of similar players.
Participation data (i.e., snap counts) is used to weight contributions, with additional considerations for injury risk, coordinator changes, and scheme tendencies.
Point differential: Each team has a point differential in the index. A +43 improvement doesn't mean the Patriots will score 43 more points. It means their projected point differential is 43 points better than if they had kept their 2024 roster intact. That's worth about 1.3 wins this year.
Roster Modeling Nuance
Rotational players are harder to model, so Kevin smooths out usage based on prior snaps and coaching history.
Fullbacks, centers, and low-snap positions get context-specific adjustments depending on scheme and replaceability.
Coaching changes don't radically shift the projection unless it's a QB or team-level philosophy shift.
Team-Level Highlights
Patriots: The biggest gainers, with upside tied to improved depth and variance at QB. Diggs only ranks as their 5th most valuable addition.
Bears: Interior OL upgrades (Jackson, Dolman) don't rate as highly, but the total picture (especially adding Joe Thuney) is strong.
Panthers: Ranked 3rd in improvement. Key reason? They didn't lose much valuable talent, and the draft well based on surplus value.
Browns: Gained ~5 points mostly from marginal improvements at QB (Pickett vs. projected backups). Still volatile due to QB uncertainty.
Raiders: Geno Smith is a clear upgrade at QB, but the rest of the roster is roughly flat. Some natural regression expected after underperforming last year.
49ers: Losses overhyped due to player reputation rather than projected value. Comp picks help long-term roster strength.
Jets: Show significant drop-off. Fields isn't rated as an upgrade over Rodgers, and they lost valuable supporting pieces like Davante Adams.
Seahawks: Metcalf loss hurts more than Kupp helps. Darnold is a mid-tier projection (QB18–25 range), though he did flash top-5 efficiency last year.
Eagles/Chiefs: Bottom tier in improvement, largely due to difficulty sustaining elite rosters. Kevin notes he had Ravens and Bills power-rated higher than the Chiefs pre-Super Bowl.
Undervalued Teams?
Colts: Slightly improved, with potential upside from Anthony Richardson or even Daniel Jones (yes, really).
Browns: Again undervalued in the betting market due to lingering QB pessimism, despite a strong supporting cast.
What's Next from Kevin?

Expect more work pre-draft and post-draft:
Updated Improvement Index
"Analytical big board" using surplus draft value
Post-draft evaluations factoring positional value, trade value, and reach vs. value metrics
59 min
March 24, 2025 Previewing the UFL 2025 Season with Jake Tribbey of FantasyPoints
Follow Jake this UFL season at FantasyPoints and on X at @JakeTribbey
31 min
March 24, 2025 Previewing the 2025 UFL Season with James Larsen of ProFootballNewsroom
Follow James all season for UFL updates at https://pfnewsroom.com/author/james-larsen/ and on X @JamesLarsenPFN
26 min
March 24, 2025 Previewing the 2025 UFL Season with Cody Main from Establish The Run
Follow Cody for all his UFL content this season at www.establishtherun.com and on X @cmain7
34 min
March 12, 2025 NFL Free Agency Breakdown: Winners, Losers & Surprises - Q&A
NFL Free Agency is in full swing! Which teams made the best moves? Which ones flopped? And most importantly—how do these signings impact betting markets? Join me, Adam Chernoff, for a live Q&A where I'll break down the biggest signings, grade team performances, and answer your questions about futures, win totals, and more.
1 hr 6 min
March 05, 2025 NFL Headline Reaction: Darnold, Deebo, Stafford, Higgins, Bears OL, Adams, Saquon, Fields and More!
Football Bettors newsletter: http://www.footballbettors.com

Offseason: 0:00

Deebo Samuel traded to Washington: 2:45

Sam Darnold tagged by Minnesota: 8:40

Matthew Stafford given a raise by LA: 12:43

Tee Higgins tagged by Cincinnati: 16:59

Justin Fields expected to be QB1 in Pittsburgh: 22:31

Davante Adams released by New York: 26:23

Saquon Barkley extended by Philadelphia: 28:38

Jonah Jackson & Joe Thuney added by Chicago: 29:27

Newsletter: 35:10

Seattle Seahawks run game increase: 38:21

Washington Commanders in 2025: 48:29
53 min
January 28, 2025 Super Bowl Betting Preview - Thank You For Listening This Season!
The final episode of the season is here! Super Bowl betting preview with my final score prediction and favorite prop bet.
38 min
January 20, 2025 Championship Weekend Opening Lines Reaction
Adam Chernoff reacts to the Championship Weekend opening lines
48 min
January 16, 2025 NFL Playoff Divisional Round Predictions: Chiefs/Texans, Lions/Commanders, Rams/Eagles, Bills/Ravens
The NFL Divisional Round is here, In this video, sports bettor Adam Chernoff breaks down each matchup of the weekend's most anticipated games. We'll take a deep dive into the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans, Detroit Lions vs. Washington Commanders, Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles, and Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens, analyzing team strengths, key players, and what to expect from each matchup.

Divisional Weekend! (0:00)

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs (2:54)

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions (12:05)

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills (27:46)

LA Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles (41:07)

Questions (51:23)
1 hr 1 min

About The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

From the publisher's feed

New episodes every Monday and Friday. Monday previews the upcoming week of NFL games by reacting to opening betting lines. Friday is final thoughts with key news, notes, market info and matchup stats.…