The Simple Handicap: NFL Betting Podcast with Adam Chernoff

A short form information session looking at the difference between 2.5 and 3, point spread to money line and some talk about margins. 

DFSJoeBrown asks, 

"Is there a given juice that a book will charge when moving numbers around the key 3, like -3 +100 or -2.5 -125, which line is actually better?"

I answer the question, touch on pricing to 100, knowing your margins and why the money line comes before the point spread. 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Cincinnati Bengals. The 31st favourite to win the Super Bowl has been hit with under money all preseason. Is there any upside in taking the win total over 5.5 or 6? 

A brand new coaching staff has the betting market down on the Bengals, but one player on the team may threaten for most yards gained at his position. What with the Zac Taylor playbook look like? Why is the Bengals personnel similar to the Rams? Is this a buy low, or stay away? 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Chicago Bears. The defending NFC North Champions exceeded their win total in 2018 by one of the largest margins in NFL history. With their price in 2019 scattered between 8.5 and 9.5, what is the best bet?  

The difference between the preseason and week to week handicap with Chicago is enormous. Find out what matters on a week to week basis, and why bettors should not get caught up in the season handicap. How will Pagano be different from Fangio? Is the increased amount of tape enough to derail the scripted play calling of Matt Nagy?

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

A short form information session looking at one of my favourite topics, handicapping into buckets. 

When betting NFL today, it is more important to approach the markets as bettor vs bettor and not bettor vs bookmaker. I revisit the buckets approach entering preseason and provide a starting point for all bettors to build a case for making a bet and finding an edge each week. 

You can read the original article here, https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-articles/Betting-Strategy/handicapping-into-buckets-can-help-with-betting/9ZK25EL26CD8P858

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Carolina Panthers. Bettors continue to sell the Falcons and Saints in the NFC South and buy the Panthers. One of the biggest win total moves sees a split between 7.5, 8 and 8.5. Which is the best number to take? 

Do the Panthers have the best offence in the NFC? Is the media misplaying the Cam Newton shoulder injury? How smart was Norv Turner to anticipate things last season and set up the Panthers for 2019? Don't get caught up in handicapping the offence - the defence is a HUGE liability. 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Buffalo Bills. After consistently selling the Bills last offseason, the market is optimistic about their chances this season. Split between 6.5 and 7.5, find out which is the better price to take if betting the season win total. 

Brian Daboll established an identity for the Bills offence and enters 2019 with a number of new weapons. Will Josh Allen fix his accuracy issues? Can the offensive line stay healthy? How will the market price one of the best secondaries in the league? Are the Bills a great buy low, or is the hype enough to sell the team throughout the season? 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Baltimore Ravens. The market has been opposing the Ravens in the offseason and their win total is split between 8.5 and 8, but which is the better price to take?

The Ravens are all in on Lamar Jackson and brought in Greg Roman who has a spectacular resume of coaching up mobile quarterbacks. Did Gus Bradley set the blueprint for the league to defend this run heavy attack? How can the Ravens change entering 2019? Is this the easiest team to handicap and price in the NFL?

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

NFL Team Previews continue with a look into the Atlanta Falcons. The market has been selling the Falcons all offseason despite the best group of receivers and a whole lot of name value attracting attention on offence. Is it better to look at betting under 9 or 8.5? 

Will the return of Dirk Koetter revert Atlanta into play calling that is too traditional? How much influence does Mike Mularkey have over the play book? Is Atlanta the least equipped team in the NFL to compete within their division? 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

The first of the 2019 NFL Team Previews begins with the Arizona Cardinals. A team with a lot of question marks leaves a lot of uncertainty in the betting market with win totals of 4.5, 5 and 5.5 available on the board. Which is the best number to take?

How far will Kliff Kingsbury go with the Air Raid concept? What personnel are we likely to see? How can teams defend the offence and when is a good time to bet the Cardinals who are underdogs in every look ahead price this season? 

NFL Season prep continues each day in The Simple Handicap Slack Channel. Over 100 pages of team by team betting breakdowns, preseason bets and 24 hour discussion with other bettors and professionals from around the world. Open for all to join at www.thesimplehandicap.com 

Players are in preseason form as well as myself...A rusty return to the podcast looks at the do's and do not's of betting the NFL Preseason as well as a little house keeping on upcoming content in August and throughout the regular season. 

The Simple Handicap Slack is up and running for the second year. If you would like to join the channel, you can do so here: https://www.thesimplehandicap.com