The Smart Betting Club Podcast

What is it really like running an independent bookmaker in Britain in 2026?

In Episode 108, I sit down with James Lovell, co founder of DragonBet and experienced racecourse bookmaker, to explore life on the other side of the betting counter.

James explains why bigger staking and sharper punters are increasingly returning to the racecourse, as competitive prices, online restrictions and reduced exchange liquidity make the betting ring an attractive alternative.

We also get inside DragonBet, where compliance now requires roughly twice as many people as trading, and discuss sharp bettors, restrictions, regulation and the growing threat from black market bookmakers.

Finally, James explains how increased taxation is affecting smaller operators and why, despite all these pressures, he remains optimistic about the future of independent bookmaking.

KEY TALKING POINTS

• James's journey from growing up in a bookmaking family to becoming a racecourse bookmaker
• Bringing traditional racecourse bookmaking values into an online betting business
• Why bigger staking and price sensitive punters are returning to the racecourse - especially with competitive pricing.
• How online restrictions and compliance friction are influencing where people bet
• The impact of declining exchange liquidity on bookmakers and punters
• How large bets and AML checks are handled on course
• Why compliance is now one of the biggest challenges facing independent bookmakers
• How DragonBet approaches sharp and winning bettors
• Why James believes bookmakers need customers who are trying to beat them
• The competitive threat posed by unregulated and black market betting operators
• Higher taxation, rising costs and why James believes DragonBet needs to grow rather than simply cut costs

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link:

https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• James Lovell and DragonBet: www.dragonbet.co.uk
• James Lovell's article: Turnover on racing is down but its up in the ring: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/turnover-racing-down-its-up-ring-why-happening-what-does-lovell--iibdf/
• Smart Betting Club: smartbettingclub.com

Key Quotes

The Return of Real Bookmaking

“Until a few years ago, you could be really lazy and just track the exchanges. Now you have to pay attention to your surroundings. It’s bringing back that old bookmaking skill again.”

Sharp Punters Are Part of Bookmaking

“I can’t say we want to take on every sharp punter in the world, but at the same time, we are bookmakers and we do want to have a bet. A bookmaker is not a bookmaker unless he’s got punters who are trying to beat him.”

The Time to Worry Is When You Can Get On

“My old man used to say to me all the time, the time to worry is when you can get on. If a bookmaker wants you to bet with them, you’re in trouble.”

Why Punters Are Returning to the Racecourse

“I’m taking the same amount of bets as I was a few years ago, but my average stake has gone up massively. It’s definitely the bigger punters. If you’re having a bigger bet, you’re more likely to shop around and notice the difference in prices.”

Regulation Does Not Remove the Demand to Bet

“The increase in stakes on the racecourse tells you one thing about over regulation. It doesn’t stop the demand. People still want to bet on horse racing. They’re just going to try and find somewhere else to go and do it.”

Compliance Versus Taking Bets

“The biggest shock to me when we launched, going from the racecourse to online, was how much smaller a part of the business trading is. We’re bookmakers. We want to be here taking bets, and it’s very easy to get distracted by other stuff such as compliance.”

Why Bookmakers Ask for Bank Statements

“You ask someone for a bank statement, I wouldn’t want to send my bank statement. I don’t want my missus to see my bank statement, never mind someone I don’t know at a bookmaker. But the truth is, to work within the Gambling Commission guidelines, there are certain instances where you have to ask for certain stuff.”

The Black Market Advantage

“These black market websites, their incentive is to do the opposite (than safer gambling). They want to provide the path of least friction for customers. Their advertising, they’re using no regulation as an advertising tool, and I just think it’s dangerous and wrong.”

You Cannot Cut Your Way to Growth

“You can cut your way to survival for a while, but ultimately you’ve got to grow your way out of it. We’re trying not to become a worse bookmaker and offer worse prices. We’re trying to become a bigger and better one.”

Treating Punters Fairly

“We’re fair bookmakers. We’re fair to punters. I can’t say that we’re going to take on every sharp punter, that would just be wrong. We’re a business trying to make money, but we’ll treat you properly.”

What separates a genuinely profitable football bettor from the thousands trying to beat the same markets?

In Episode 107, I sit down with professional bettor, tipster, football analyst and former elite Danish referee Benjamin Leander to explore his unusual journey.

Benjamin has spent more than 20 years immersed in football, refereeing and betting. He reached elite level in Denmark, won three football pools prizes worth a combined 2.6 million Danish kroner, and has built an impressive record finding value across global football markets.

But his journey has been far from straightforward.

Benjamin speaks openly about his gambling problems, including periods when poker, casino games and undisciplined betting undermined his sports betting. He explains how he regained control and why discipline remains essential.

We also explore how he finds bets. Rather than focusing on efficient markets such as the Premier League and La Liga, he searches for value in Danish Cup matches, youth football, lower divisions, international competitions, cards markets and unusual motivational situations.

Preparation is central to his approach. Benjamin explains how his betting calendar helps identify opportunities weeks in advance, including a Syria versus Palestine draw that moved from around 3.00 to 1.75–1.80.

We also discuss his VIP betting service, reviewed in SBC Magazine Issue 163 and which continues to go from strength to strength with an extensive winning record and at an affordable price point.

Whether you're interested in football betting, finding value in less efficient markets, running a betting service or developing the discipline to bet seriously, this is a fascinating and candid conversation.

KEY TALKING POINTS

• Benjamin's journey from teenage referee to professional football and betting analyst
• How refereeing at elite level shaped his approach to cards and disciplinary markets
• How he won three major Danish football pools prizes worth a combined 2.6 million kroner
• Benjamin's candid account of his gambling addiction and the safeguards he now uses
• Why discipline and bankroll control matter as much as finding value
• Why he avoids highly efficient markets such as the Premier League and La Liga
• How he finds opportunities in youth football, cup competitions, lower leagues and international matches
• Why his monthly betting calendar is one of his biggest assets
• Why pricing matches yourself can expose major bookmaker errors
• What he looks for when assessing motivation, suspensions and unusual circumstances
• The results behind Benjamin's VIP betting service
• Why 96% to 98% of subscriber selections mirror his own bets
• Why detailed written analysis is essential to his betting process
• The dangers of betting FOMO and analysing too many competitions
• Why serious betting requires the preparation and discipline of a professional athlete
• The importance of family, preparation and knowing when to switch off

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link:

https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Benjamin Leander on X, @LeandinhoDK
• Leander's Lucrative VIP betting service: https://www.spilxperten.com/betalingsanalyser/leanders-lukrative/
• Read our full review of Benjamin's betting service in SBC Magazine Issue 163: https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/ex-referee-betting-service-review-13-roi-edge-in-sbc-magazine-163/
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

Key Quotes

• "You can be good at betting, but it doesn't matter if you don't have the discipline or the bankroll to bet on a structured basis."
• "When you have been addicted, whether it's gambling, alcohol, drugs, food, whatever you have been addicted to, I have the belief that you will never be able to completely control it."
• "My way of getting out of this is not a recipe that I would recommend for anyone."
• "The biggest strength of this group is that it is almost a complete mirror of my own betting."
• "96 to 98% of the picks in the group are my own betting."
• "I will never send out a pick where I would just name the pick and not write anything."
• "Betting on this level should be treated the same way athletes are treating their sports. We have to be serious, we have to be prepared, we have to train, we have to work out, we have to be professionals."
• "The odds calendar is my biggest asset, being well prepared and being able to look a step before."
• "Keep in mind that we only have 24 hours a day, so don't suffer from betting FOMO."

Cricket betting has become one of the fastest growing betting markets in the world. In Episode 106, I sit down with journalist, author and cricket betting expert Ed Hawkins to explore why more serious bettors are turning their attention to the sport.

Drawing on more than 20 years covering cricket and betting markets, Ed explains why bookmakers continue to make pricing mistakes, the betting markets he believes offer the biggest edge, and why understanding pitch conditions is often more important than following recent form.

We also discuss the rapid growth of franchise cricket around the world, how the CricStats VIP service identifies value alongside Richard Mann and Paul Krishnamurty, and why discipline remains one of the most underrated skills in profitable betting.

If you've read our recent CricStats review in SBC Magazine Issue 166, this conversation provides an excellent opportunity to hear directly from one of the people behind the service. With an SBC membership, you can also save up to £200 on a CricStats subscription, making it an ideal time to explore one of our highest rated cricket betting services.

Whether you're an experienced cricket bettor or someone looking to explore a growing market, this episode offers plenty of practical insights into finding value where others aren't looking.

KEY TALKING POINTS

• Ed Hawkins' journey from Racing Post journalist to one of cricket betting's most respected analysts
• Why cricket continues to offer value despite the explosion in data and analytics
• How bookmakers still make regular pricing mistakes in cricket markets
• Why pitch reports and playing conditions are often the biggest edge for bettors
• The balance between statistics, cricket knowledge and market pricing
• Why Top Run Scorer, Player Performance and Sixes markets offer consistent opportunities
• Why recent form can be overrated in T20 cricket betting
• The importance of discipline and knowing when not to place a bet
• How the CricStatz VIP team works together to identify value bets
• Why the service only quotes realistic, widely available prices
• The rapid growth of franchise cricket and what it means for bettors
• Why some emerging cricket leagues are avoided because of integrity concerns
• How Test cricket creates unique opportunities for in play betting
• The future of cricket betting and where Ed believes the biggest opportunities still exist

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link: https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Ed Hawkins on X: https://x.com/cricketbetting
• CrickStatz: https://telegram.cricstatz.ai/
• Read our full CricStatz review in SBC Magazine Issue 166
• SBC members can save up to £200 on a CricStatz subscription
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

Key Quotes

"The bookmakers do not have the resources to spend enough time on cricket. I think you get plenty of mistakes in cricket prices."

"The pitch report is absolutely vital. I wouldn't be betting heavily on a game unless I was convinced I knew what the wicket was like."

"Cricket is about failing the majority of the time. The trick is working out when someone is going to hit their sweet spot."

"Good form doesn't necessarily exist in T20 cricket."

"Cricket never stops. There's almost always another game tomorrow."

"The growth of franchise leagues means there are betting opportunities almost every day of the year."

"Years ago you could only really bet on match odds or Top Batsman. Now you've got player runs, player performances, wicket markets and total runs."

"The money swirling around cricket betting is still absolutely huge." "The Indian betting market is so vast that it props up everything else."

Making over £1 million from betting is enough to grab anyone's attention. The real story, though, is how my guest in Episode 105, Harry, got there.

In this episode, Harry lifts the lid on two decades of professional betting, from exploiting early Betfair markets and building successful betting syndicates, to finding value on today's betting exchanges, managing variance, surviving losing years and continually adapting as betting markets have evolved. He also explains why exchanges now form the backbone of his betting, how he identifies inflated prices, and the practical challenges of funding accounts in an era of affordability checks.

If you've ever wondered what separates long term winning bettors from everyone else, this is an honest and fascinating insight into the mindset, discipline and decision making required to stay ahead.

KEY TALKING POINTS

• Harry's journey to more than £1 million in betting profits
• Why he still works in the legal profession despite betting professionally
• How early Betfair markets created opportunities that no longer exist
• The transition from trading and shop betting to exchange based value betting
• Building and operating successful betting syndicates
• How syndicates calculate expected value and split profits fairly
• The evolution of bookmaker promotions, Lucky 15s and shop betting opportunities
• Finding value through exchanges, inflated markets and probability modelling
• Using Bookie Bashing alongside personal research to validate prices
• Why adapting to changing markets is essential for long term success
• Managing variance, losing years and maintaining confidence in expected value
• The psychological benefits of working with trusted betting partners
• The impact of affordability checks, exchange funding and bookmaker restrictions
• Examples of betting "unicorns" and market inefficiencies that generated exceptional returns
• Harry's biggest betting wins and lessons from twenty years as a professional bettor
• His advice for anyone looking to build a sustainable betting career from scratch

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link: https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Harry on Twitter(X): https://x.com/bazapeps
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

In Episode 104, Pete sits down with Juan, founder of Bet Hero, the value betting platform recently reviewed and recommended in SBC Magazine 164.

Juan explains how his journey into betting began not through gambling, but by identifying inefficiencies in other markets. From building software to profit from sneaker releases, GPUs and collectibles, his background in computer science and automation naturally led him into arbitrage and eventually value betting.

The discussion explores the difference between arbitrage and value betting, why expected value is the foundation of long term success, and how Bet Hero evolved from a simple Discord alert bot into a platform covering more than 400 sportsbooks worldwide.

Pete and Juan analyse SBC’s review of 16,488 bets producing a 4.06% ROI, explaining why ROI alone can be misleading, the importance of closing line value, and how successful users maximise returns through volume, discipline and focusing on EV rather than short term results.

Finally, Juan discusses Bet Hero’s unique pricing model using multiple sharp sources, alongside Kelly staking, middle betting, and the ongoing battle to stay ahead of increasingly sophisticated bookmakers.

SBC members can also access an exclusive 20% discount on Bet Hero plans, saving up to €215 when joining before the end of June 2026. Full details at https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/bet-hero_review/

Topics covered include

• From sneaker reselling and software engineering into sports betting
• How arbitrage introduced Juan to value betting
• Why expected value is more important than individual results
• Learning to ignore short term variance and think long term
• Building the first Bet Hero Discord bot
• Growing from a personal tool into a platform covering 400+ sportsbooks
• Why underserved betting regions create opportunities
• How SBC analysed 16,488 Bet Hero bets and recorded a 4.06% ROI
• Why ROI must be viewed alongside turnover and betting volume
• Using EV filters to improve performance
• Why closing line value is a key measure of success
• The habits of Bet Hero’s most successful users
• Why higher odds and lower strike rates can still offer excellent value
• Building fair odds using multiple sharp sources rather than only Pinnacle
• The role of exchanges and prediction markets in modern pricing
• Kelly staking versus level stakes
• Adding middle betting and future Bet Hero developments

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook.

Get 150 days commission free via this link:

https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Bet Hero: https://betherosports.com
• Bet Hero on X: @betherosports
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/
• SBC's review of Bet Hero: https://smartbettingclub.com/blog/bet-hero_review/

Key Quotes and Pull Outs

On discovering value betting

“I always heard that less than 5% of bettors actually make money. The moment I understood how sportsbooks set odds and bake in a margin, everything changed.”

“In the long run, value betting is more profitable (than arbitrage) because you don’t need to hedge and sacrifice some of the profit.”

On mindset and handling variance

“If you start getting anxious about short term performance, it’s going to play you mentally.”

“I don’t even check how the games are doing anymore. I place as many bets as I can and look at the results later.”

“The top users only care about expected value. It doesn’t matter if the bet has a 1% chance of winning or a 70% chance of winning. As long as it’s positive expected value, that’s all that matters.”

On building Bet Hero

“In the beginning, my idea was to build it for myself to take advantage of my local sportsbooks.”

“There was no website, no dashboard. It was just a Discord bot sending me alerts when a value bet was found.”

“Once I saw the product was working for me and for my friends, I decided to make it public.”

On the reality of value betting returns

“Even if you’re getting a 1% ROI, it’s daily. It compounds very quickly.”

“I find there is a misconception when people compare betting ROI to the stock market. It’s like comparing apples to oranges.”

On finding the best betting opportunities

“We usually recommend users start with over 3% expected value because you have a safe margin.”

“Beginners care too much about winning probability. They filter out a big chunk of volume where value exists.”

“There is no sportsbook that is the sharpest at everything.”

On the future of betting markets

“Prediction markets provide valuable data because you can see where the money is flowing and in what magnitude.”

"This is a constant battle. The sportsbooks get better with time and we also get better.”

“We continue improving the software every day.”

Recorded live at Smart Bash 2026, Pete Ling is joined by Phil Smith, Jeevan Jeyaratnam and Varun Sudhakar to explore one of the biggest challenges facing profitable bettors today: not finding value, but actually getting money down.

The panel discusses how AI driven risk management, affordability checks and increasingly sophisticated customer profiling have changed the betting landscape. Topics include account longevity, timing of bets, market selection, exchange betting, accumulators, player props and the practical realities of avoiding restrictions while still maximising value.

Drawing on experience from both sides of the industry, the conversation offers actionable insights for bettors looking to improve their returns, preserve access to bookmakers and make more from the edges they already have.

Key topics:

• Why finding value alone is no longer enough, and how to make sure you can actually get meaningful stakes on your best bets
• What modern bookmakers are really looking for when profiling customers, and how AI is changing the way winning bettors are identified
• Practical ways to improve account longevity and reduce the risk of restrictions, affordability checks and stake reductions
• How accumulators, player props and other market types can help serious bettors maximise opportunities and stay under the radar
• Why the timing of your bets can be just as important as the selection itself, and how to avoid common execution mistakes
• How betting exchanges can provide greater flexibility, better scalability and an alternative route when bookmaker limits become an issue
• Actionable advice for £50 to £100 stake bettors looking to increase profits, preserve accounts and build a more sustainable betting operation

Support The Podcast
You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link: https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Phil on Twitter(X): https://x.com/philbetting
• Jeevan: https://x.com/JeevesOdds
• Varun: https://x.com/svarun91
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

Key Quotes

"Finding value has become much more democratised. Getting your money down is now 50% of the problem, if not more. The real challenge these days is execution."
Varun

"Every Monday morning I'll be at my desk looking at my deposits for the week and making sure I don't go over £500 per week because the affordability check will tend to trigger if you're depositing five grand a month."
Phil

"It's about not what wins, but what wins you the most."
Pete

"I've realised that I need to spread the staking across various different accounts. When I do it on one or two accounts, that's when the affordability check triggers."
Phil

"We're seeing algorithmic AI solutions that will do this job much faster, much better and at a greater scale than human traders can do."
Jeevan

"You can prime an account, but AI will pick up your bet as soon as you put the good bet on."
Jeevan

"You can have the biggest edge in Romanian tennis, but if you can't get down, it just doesn't matter."
Varun

"If you value the account, you've got to be very careful betting on niche markets where there's little liquidity."
Jeevan

"The worst thing that you can do is keep getting accounts locked with big cash balances in. You don't know when you're going to get paid out. It's just a nightmare."
Phil

In Episode 102 of the SBC Podcast, I’m joined by Jesse May and Simon Nott to preview Smart Bash 2026, which is taking place on May 27th and 28th in London, England. 

You can grab your tickets and save 10% on the cost by using the SBC discount code: SBCSBASH10 when purchasing via www.smart-bash.com

This special episode breaks down why Smart Bash has quickly become one of the standout betting events in the UK, bringing together everyone from aspiring bettors to some of the sharpest operators, traders and professional gamblers in the industry.

We discuss what makes the event different from a traditional gambling conference, why the networking side is such a huge part of the experience, and how many of the best conversations happen away from the stage, between bettors sharing ideas, edges and experiences that rarely get discussed publicly.

We also preview the major workshops and panels taking place across the two days, including:

• World Cup betting and trading angles
• Prediction markets and exchange betting
• The growth of the black market
• Tax and syndicate structures
• Bookmaker restrictions and sustainability
• Racecourse betting and bookmaker insights
• The evolution of betting edges
• Why “getting money down” has become one of the biggest modern advantages

Alongside the betting discussions, the episode also explores the wider challenges facing bettors today, from affordability checks and regulation through to the growing importance of execution, timing and account management.

Whether you are looking to sharpen your edge, meet like minded bettors, or better understand where the betting industry is heading next, this episode explains exactly why Smart Bash has built such a strong reputation within serious betting circles.

Support The Podcast
You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link: https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions
Smart Bash Tickets: www.smart-bash.com
Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

On what makes Smart Bash different
“It was the brainchild of people who wanted something that was just for bettors, just serious bettors.”

On betting being a lonely pursuit
“Professional gambling, or the attempt to become a professional gambler, is a lonely road.”

On the networking side of Smart Bash
“They only met that day at the event, but they were talking as if they’d known each other for years.”

On hidden betting talent
“There’s quite a lot of people who attend that have no profile publicly, but are big bettors or run big betting operations”

On Jose’s workshop
“Too many people just think they have a bet and always bet a single instead of looking at multiples and parlays.”

On execution and betting strategy via the SBC Panel planned
“If you can 2x how much money you can make from every account, that’s worth that edge alone.”

On why people should attend
“If you have a passion for taking betting seriously, just come. You’ll have fun.”

Today, I’m joined by Phil Smith, a full time football bettor specialising in antepost (futures) markets and exchange trading.

Phil shares his journey from early losses and trial and error, through to building a profitable approach combining Betfair trading and more recently, antepost betting. We go deep into how antepost betting works in practice, where the real edge comes from, and why volume, structure and discipline are key to long term success. The conversation also explores the growing challenges facing bettors today, including Phil’s own experiences, from being permanently removed from Betfair after years of activity, to being locked out of funds and bets for months during an affordability check with Sky Bet.

These real world examples highlight the realities of modern betting, where getting money down, accessing funds, and even maintaining accounts has become as important as finding value. Bettors everywhere are experiencing woeful levels of customer service and significant hurdles depositing money for betting due to the failure of affordability checks and overbearing regulation. Phil's story captures and explains those frustrations in full for all to hear.

This is a practical, honest discussion about modern betting, where theory often takes a back seat to execution, access and adaptability.

KEY TALKING POINTS

1. Phil’s journey from early losses to going full time in 2020
2. Transition into antepost betting and building a profitable edge
3. Turning a £3k bankroll into £12k through structured betting
4. Betfair trading as the foundation of his bankroll
5. Impact of affordability checks, account closures and restrictions
6. Being removed from Betfair after years of activity.
7. Being locked out of funds and bets for months with Sky Bet
8. Evolution of his antepost strategy and staking approach
9. Managing variance through diversification and structured betting
10. Combining short term income with long term ante post returns

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook.

Get 150 days commission free via this link

Resources & Mentions

• Phil on Twitter(X): https://x.com/philbetting
• Telegraph article featuring Phil "The professional sports gamblers being hunted down by the bookies"
• Chris Fawcett's SYC Suggestion 
• Smart Betting Club

KEY QUOTES

On early struggles:  “There was a lot of going through bankrolls and going around in circles. “It took me about 10 years before I went full time.”

On finding an edge in antepost betting:  “I realised there was a lot more to learn and a lot more angles to cover.”

On building a bankroll:  “I turned three grand into about twelve grand, that was a big bank builder.”

On going full time:  “I wasn’t happy in my job, so I decided to take the risk and go for it.”

On Betfair challenges:  “Betfair staff don’t really understand how people trade and operate. I never expected to get kicked off, it definitely caught me by surprise.”

On Sky Bet issues: “It was six months of no access to my funds, no access to my bets. You can’t even speak to the people actually dealing with your account.”

On volume and variance:  “If you don’t place enough bets, you can easily get caught out.”

On long term success: “If you can combine day to day profit with long term systems, that’s the way to go.

In Episode 100 of the SBC Betting Interview series, Pete welcomes a special guest to mark the milestone, Antonino (Ant) De Rosa, a former Pinnacle trader and now operator of a large scale professional betting group.

This episode goes deep into the reality of sharp betting. Not theory, not models in isolation, but how markets actually move, how sportsbooks react, and why execution is often the biggest edge in the modern game.

Ant shares his unique journey from elite level Magic: The Gathering player to being recruited by Pinnacle, where he specialised in live NBA trading. He explains how his edge was never about knowing sport better than others, but about predicting behaviour, understanding where the next bet would come from, and how the market would react.

The conversation then shifts into the mechanics of running a serious betting operation today. From scaling across multiple sports, managing hundreds of accounts, and handling real world challenges like liquidity, restrictions, and non payment.

Ant is clear that having a strong model or idea is not enough, if you cannot get money down, the edge has no value.

This is a rare, honest look at the sharp end of betting in 2026, where success comes from combining insight, discipline, and the ability to execute at scale.

Support The Podcast

You can support the SBC Podcast by visiting our podcast sponsor, Matchbook. Get 150 days commission free via this link: https://welcome.matchbook.com/SBC150

Resources & Mentions

• Avoid The Trap Podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/3VXIHNAv3HS9738ZeS0mKu
• Ant De Rosa on X/Twitter: https://x.com/DeRosa_Antonino
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

Topics covered include

• From Magic: The Gathering to Pinnacle trader
• How Pinnacle identified and used sharp bettors
• Predicting where the next bet comes from
• Why market movement is driven by respected money
• The difference between “cold” and “hot” bets
• How sportsbooks actually set lines and limits
• Building and scaling a multi sport betting operation
• Managing hundreds of accounts and execution challenges
• The reality of getting bets on and getting paid
• Why liquidity defines what is worth betting
• How edges evolve and disappear over time
• Where opportunities still exist in modern betting

Key quotes 

On what made him successful at Pinnacle “I was able to predict where the next bet was coming from."

On market dynamics “If nothing is happening and a sharp bets you, you have to move. If they bet after you move, that means something completely different.”

On sportsbooks and pricing “Opening lines don’t matter. Within 15 minutes you’re at the right number taking bets.”

On timing of bets “Why did they bet now and not later, that’s the question you should be asking.

On betting reality vs theory “If you can’t get money down on it, it’s worthless.”

On execution challenges “I had no idea how hard it was to bet until I started doing it myself.”

On scaling and liquidity “For us to get 10k down on a challenger match, 300 people might have to see the bet.”

On building an edge “Start with an idea, then test it. Don’t start with a sport and hope to find one.”

Pete sits down with Graeme Acheson, founder of Sports4Cast, the data driven modelling platform recently reviewed in SBC Magazine 161.

Graeme explains how a background in accountancy and risk analytics evolved into building forecasting models across rugby, football and baseball. What began as a passion project tracking rugby rankings developed into a fully automated betting model designed to identify bookmaker mispricing through probability accuracy.

The discussion centres on rugby, where the model has produced a double digit ROI over the past 12 months, and why thinner, less efficient markets can offer opportunity for disciplined bettors. Graeme breaks down the distinction between prediction and probability, how his dynamic system adapts to market movement, and why timing can matter as much as selection.

The conversation then moves beyond betting, exploring how the same ranking methodology has been used by football clubs such as Sunderland to help shortlist managers and guide season level decision making.

Finally, Graeme outlines plans to expand into further sports, the challenges of modelling sharper markets like football, and why simple principles, applied consistently with good data, can still uncover edges in 2026.

Topics covered include

• From chartered accountant to sports modelling founder
• How rugby rankings evolved into a betting model
• Why rugby markets are less efficient than football
• Why early week pricing can offer stronger edges
• Liquidity trade offs and closing line efficiency
• Using A, B and C bet gradings to manage risk
• Fully automated modelling and hourly odds updates
• Working with betting syndicates vs retail bettors
• Applying ranking systems to football manager recruitment
• Data driven shortlisting at Sunderland
• Season targeting models and decision support for clubs
• Expanding into football, baseball and future sports
• Why probability accuracy matters more than picking winners

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Resources & Mentions

• Sports4Cast: sports4cast.com
• Smart Betting Club: https://smartbettingclub.com/

Key quotes and pull outs

On how it started

“I didn’t start doing it for betting. I just enjoyed making the predictions and seeing how accurate they were.”

“The first question everybody would always ask was, do you use these for betting?”

On rugby as a betting market

“There’s always something going on in rugby, and it’s not priced as efficiently as football.”

“The mispricings in some of the smaller rugby leagues are almost farcical.”

“Three or four days out you’ll see plenty of good opportunities. The trade off is limits.”

On Using The Sports4Cast Service

"The system is constantly updating. Every hour the recommendations can change.”

“Different users will see different opportunities depending on when they log in.”

On Syndicates and Scale

“I speak to a couple of syndicates who take the responsibility of getting the bets down. That allows you to get some skin in the game without the admin of keeping accounts open.”

“If you have the execution in place, there is definitely scale there in rugby.”

On working with football clubs

“If a manager consistently joins clubs and leaves them at a much higher ranking, they must be doing something right.”

“You never blindly follow the data. You match the quantitative with the qualitative.”

“It just gives clubs a grounding. You’re not sticking your finger in the air.”