The Space Show Presents Sarah Scoles, Friday, 1-30-26

Quick Summary”

Our program initially focused on discussing the status and challenges of the Breakthrough Starshot project, including its cancellation and implications for interstellar travel research through Sarah’s Oct 2025 Scientific American story. Participants explored the technical and financial aspects of space exploration, including the development of laser propulsion technology, the importance of mechanical engineering in different gravity environments, and the role of commercial space companies in pharmaceutical development and national security. The group also discussed space budget allocation, the challenges of evaluating space companies, and the geopolitical implications of space exploration, with participants expressing optimism about space’s potential contributions to global progress.

Summary

David and Sarah discussed the status of the Breakthrough Starshot project, which Sarah had recently written about in Scientific American. David noted that several previous guests who had been involved with Breakthrough, including Worden, Phil Lubin, and Zach Manchester, had been unable to return for updates. Sarah’s article revealed that the project had become dormant, which came as a surprise to David, who had been discussing it as a real possibility for years on his Space Show program.

In introduced the Wisdom Team for this program including Dr. James Benford, who argued that the Breakthrough Starshot project was successful in achieving its Phase 1 objectives, which involved investing in high-risk, high-reward research to de-risk technology and identify potential showstoppers. Others highlighted the importance of designing equipment that functions in microgravity or zero-gravity environments, a topic that is often overlooked in space exploration discussions. Later in the program the team discussed the need for mechanical engineering specialists tailored to different gravity conditions, such as those on Mars, and considered the possibility of writing an article on this topic.

David discussed the cancellation of Breakthrough’s interstellar flight project and its impact on the show’s guests, noting that Pete Worden and others had not been Space Show guests in the past few years. He introduced Sarah Scoles, a science journalist who wrote an article about the project’s demise in Scientific American. Sarah explained that Breakthrough’s plan to send wafer-sized spacecraft to Alpha Centauri at a quarter the speed of light had been abandoned, highlighting the risks of billionaire-funded science projects. David and Sarah discussed the reasons behind the project’s cancellation and its implications for future interstellar missions.

Sarah’s article explored the demise of Breakthrough Starshot, a $100 million project aimed at developing laser propulsion technology for interstellar travel. Despite significant progress in laser and spacecraft technology, the project faced challenges such as high costs and technical difficulties, leading to its quiet discontinuation. Jim Benford, a key figure in the project, clarified that the concept predates Breakthrough Starshot and has a long history, including his own laboratory work on microwave sails in the 1990s. He criticized the article for not consulting with major project participants and emphasized the secretive nature of the Breakthrough team.

Jim discussed the Starshot project’s Phase 1, which aimed to assess the feasibility of interstellar travel using a sail propelled by a laser. The phase was successful in determining that there are no showstoppers to the concept, which is technically and financially viable. The project addressed four key challenges, including building a coherent laser array, finding a suitable material for the sail, ensuring stable beam riding, and transmitting data over vast distances. Phase 2, which would involve laboratory and in-orbit demonstrations, is now seeking funding to continue the work, with an estimated cost of $100 million.

The group discussed Sarah’s article about Breakthrough Starshot, with Jim and David expressing appreciation for her thorough coverage of the project’s four main challenges and progress made. Jim, who is 85 years old, explained that Breakthrough Starshot’s communication issues have been a significant problem, particularly regarding the final report that was completed over a year ago but has not been released. Jim announced he would be writing a two-part series on Centauri Dreams about Breakthrough Starshot, with the first part focusing on Sarah’s article and the second part providing a technical review of the project’s achievements.

The group continued discussing Sarah’s recent article about the Breakthrough Starshot project, with Sarah defending her reporting approach and acknowledging she spoke to key researchers but not top executives due to their secrecy. Jim explained that Yuri Milner, the project’s financier, is secretive and avoids public attention, which contributes to the organization’s poor internal and external communications. Marshall inquired about the appropriate budget allocation for R&D project publicity, and Jim shared that Kevin Parkin had modeled the system’s costs, estimating $10 billion for construction if laser costs decrease, with half the budget going to the beamer and the rest split between the aperture and power.

Sarah discussed her overall experience covering space and technology, highlighting the rapid development of low Earth orbit satellite constellations for communications and Earth observation. She noted that companies are increasingly using space data for various applications, including national security and weather monitoring. David inquired about Sarah’s views on the progress of space development, particularly in areas like human spaceflight and the shift of commercial space companies towards defense and national security work.

The group discussed the current state of space companies and their funding. David expressed concern about the high failure rate of entrepreneurial space ventures, noting that many companies may not be able to sustain themselves due to technological limitations or financial constraints. Joe agreed, emphasizing that founders often focus more on technology than fundraising. The discussion also touched on the challenges of distinguishing between credible and fraudulent space companies at conferences, with Sarah and David sharing their approaches to evaluating potential stories or investments.

Sarah discussed her experience covering space news, including her interest in space policy and UAP topics. Ajay brought up Russia’s development of a nuclear-powered missile, which sparked a debate between Ajay and Jim about the feasibility and implications of such a weapon. John suggested that Russia’s development might be a response to the U.S. pulling out of the ABM Treaty and deploying its own missile defense system.

The group discussed the development and implications of nuclear-powered cruise missiles, with Ajay emphasizing their strategic significance regardless of whether they have a “Golden Dome” capability. Marshall raised concerns about evaluating economic claims and technical feasibility of such projects, leading to a discussion about methods to verify claims, including Sarah’s approach as a physics-major journalist and Phil’s description of the Atlantis Project’s evidence ledger system for crowdsourced peer review. The conversation concluded with David inquiring about Sarah’s media work, learning that she primarily focuses on print media and is developing a podcast called “What I Left Out” about journalists’ omitted article content.

The group discussed the state of medical research and drug development in space, with David expressing skepticism about private space stations replacing the ISS’s national lab. Sarah shared her experience writing about the major private space station projects, noting limited transparency and detailed information from the companies. Jim and Ajay agreed with David’s concerns about the technical challenges of building and maintaining private space stations, particularly regarding power requirements and vibration control. The conversation concluded with a brief discussion about fusion research, where Sarah noted that while fusion companies often receive significant funding, technical progress remains uncertain.

The group discussed the status of commercial space tourism, with David noting that true commercial space tourism is still 2 years away as it requires tickets to be sold without specific reservations. Joe shared his investments in Axiom and Voyager, highlighting VAST as an interesting single-purpose space station company that aims to launch in 2027 and is entirely privately funded without federal money. Jim shared his expertise on fusion, predicting that Tri-Alpha Energy will succeed with a 100-megawatt reactor in the early 2030s, while most tokamak-based fusion companies are unlikely to succeed. The discussion concluded with Sarah expressing interest in space stations for pharmaceutical development, while Marshall mentioned potential uses for satellite maintenance and astronomy.

The program addressed the allocation of space budgets between commercial and scientific endeavors, with Sarah and Jim agreeing that commercial space activities, including pharmaceutical development in orbit, are important alongside scientific research. David highlighted the geopolitical implications of space exploration and emphasized the need for a balanced approach that considers both commercial and scientific interests. The discussion concluded with Jim and David expressing optimism about space’s potential to contribute to global peace and progress, while acknowledging challenges posed by political leaders and educational systems.

Special thanks to our sponsors:American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Helix Space in Luxembourg, Celestis Memorial Spaceflights, Astrox Corporation, Dr. Haym Benaroya of Rutgers University, The Space Settlement Progress Blog by John Jossy, The Atlantis Project, and Artless Entertainment

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