Jake and Mark look into the crystal ball and predict breakouts and busts for the 2024 MLB season. Who will exceed expectations, and who will fall short? What kind of data do Jake and Mark value when it comes to predicting this season's performances? On this episode, we create our Mt. Rushmore of breakouts and busts, giving our top 4 candidates for each category. Tune in for a look into the future!

(0:00) Intro

(2:19) Grayson Rodriguez

(6:08) Aaron Nola

(13:50) Cole Ragans

(17:07) Anthony Volpe

(21:54) Cody Bellinger

(24:36) Jordan Montgomery

(28:14) Blake Snell

(33:49) Nolan Jones

(37:28) Ending on a High Note

Jake and Mark sit down with Ryan Prager (@ryanprager10), an imposing southpaw for Texas A&M University. Ryan has recovered from Tommy John surgery and is ready to lead the Aggies back to Omaha. We discuss data-driven approaches to the rehab process and the importance of being a mature athlete to make a complete recovery.

(0:00) - Intro

(2:06) - Ryan's Background

(5:56) - TJ Surgery: Highs and Lows

(10:38) - The Mental Toll of Injuries

(13:26) - Using a Radar Gun to Monitor Workload

(18:57) - Advantages of Driveline Pulse

(23:39) - Introducing Trackman for Bullpens

(29:09) - Blending "Feel" with Data

(32:13) - Integrating Back Into Daily Practice

(36:50)- Injury Prevention with Biomechanics

(40:50) - Advice for Athletes in TJ Rehab

(43:22) - Aggies Prediction and Closing Remarks

Jake and Mark sit down with R.J. Michaels (@rj_michaels), former Director of Analytics and Assistant Coach for the University of Rochester Baseball Team. R.J. transitioned from a player to a coach after his freshman year, and helped lead the team for several years. We focus on the data that R.J collected and how he communicated his insights to coaches and players to create more wins.

(0:00) Intro

(2:27) R.J.'s Baseball Career

(4:31) Navigating the End of One's Playing Career

(6:38) R.J.'s Role as Director of Analytics

(9:17) Building Trust Through Success

(18:13) The Simplicity and Utility of Linear Regression

(23:05) Data Visualization (No Disrespect to Gerrit Cole)

(24:14) From Data Driven Insights to Creating Change

(25:59) Communication and Impact

EMERGENCY POD! On this episode, Jake and Mark dive into the controversial 4th down decisions made by Detroit Lions Head Coach Dan Campbell. While we're usually a baseball podcast, the opportunity to discuss the sweet spot between data analytics and human decision making in this year's NFC Championship Game was just too good to pass up. What do Jake and Mark think about the decision, and -- perhaps more importantly -- the rhetoric regarding the topic?

(0:00) Intro

(2:09) Initial Reactions

(4:48) "The Analytics Say..."

(7:26) All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful

(10:55) Considering Momentum

(14:13) Signal-To-Noise Ratio & "Playoff Factor"

(18:45) Our Thoughts on Campbell's Decisions

(20:41) Hitting a 16 Against a 7

Jake and Mark discuss the history of the Moneyball era in baseball. How did it start? What was it all about? How did teams such as the Rays and Astros continue to find success after the "secret" of OBP and OPS was exposed? Where is the industry headed in the next decade with respect to analytics? In this episode, we focus on select sabermetrics as well as specific examples of how teams have had success by playing the numbers.

(0:00) Intro

(1:50) Bill James & the Origin of Sabermetrics

(6:08) Jake's Gold, Silver, & Bronze of Advanced Metrics (WAR, DRS, FIP)

(18:49) The Moneyball Story

(26:00) Modern Day Moneyball

(40:32) The Future of Analytics

Jake and Mark sit down with Matt Riebesell (@riebs9), Assistant Coach and Recruiting Coordinator at Franklin & Marshall. Matt has been a coach at the D1 to D3 levels during his coaching career. We discuss the utilization of data at the NCAA level and focus on key attributes that Matt looks for as a recruiter.

(0:00) Intro

(2:23) Matt’s Career Path

(6:50) Evolution of Data in College Baseball

(10:58) Making Decisions with Minimal Data

(13:02) Recruiting Catchers

(17:58) Offense vs. Defense

(24:12) Velocity vs. Movement in Recruiting and Coaching

(27:52) Discrepancies in Data Usage Across D1/D2/D3

(30:34) How to Be More Recruitable

Jake and Mark sit down with Nick Kuzia (@kuzpitching), professional pitcher and performance coach. Nick has played in the Rockies, Tigers, and Padres organizations.

Topics include Nick's path to the pros, Tackman & Rapsodo and the pros and cons of each technology, the discrepancy in data gathering and utilization across teams within the minor leagues, the importance of velocity, the influence of biomechanics on pitch design, the trade-off between the eye test and technology, and exploiting vertical and horizontal axes to maximize deception.

We introduce the “sweet spot” - what is it, why does it exist, and why are we interested? We discuss specific examples where intuition should have played a larger role (Blake Snell, Jose Berrios), as well as some of the fundamental limitations of using any sort of data modeling when it comes to sports. We also touch on how recent studies have been able to quantify certain players’ intangibles that they bring to the table (David Ross, Carlos Beltran).