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By Theodore Knutson
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... moreThe podcast currently has 37 episodes available.
On this Episode, Ted and Patrick do a deep dive on Brentford's fast starts to game and how teams are undervaluing set pieces. They then move to discussion on playing out of the back, which has caused issues for many teams to start the season. Next, they move to Bayern Munich's recent games and their high defensive line looking fragile. To end, the move to quick hits on Real Madrid's injury situation and their need to spend big in the winter window, Micky van de Ven struggle in Spurs' loss to to Brighton, and Cole Palmer during Chelsea's 1-1 draw with Forest. Enjoy!
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Timestamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:18 - Brentford have solved Football
01:54 - Set Pieces and Ted's history with them and Brentford
06:33 - Brentford has applied this to kickoffs
08:28 - Is it sustainable?
09:22 - Zdeněk Zeman
10:22 - Team's undervaluing set pieces
13:21 - The biggest differences between a corner and a long-throw in
16:17 - How the fast starts have helped Brentford
19:54 - Principles to watch on set pieces
22:49 - Football being influenced by other sports
25:33 - Short goal kick equilibrium
26:16 - Daryl Morey's thoughts on short Goal kicks
28:27 - Forcing other teams to adapt to your style
28:51 - The end of short goal kicks?
33:09 - Teams that adapt faster will benefit
33:17 - Bayern's recent struggles
35:13 - Omar Marmoush's good form
36:24 - Bayern's high line is vulnerable
39:03 - Pep's ability to kill off games
40:39 - Will Kompany be able to learn?
43:04 - Real Madrid's injuries and the Winter window
43:49 - Madrid are missing Kroos
44:15 - Petar Sucic as a Kimmich-like
45:35 - van de Ven and Spurs vs Brighton
47:07 - Mitoma's = Bukayo Saka?
48:45 - The Welbeck winner and 2 amazing assists from the weekend
49:15 - Chelsea vs Forest and Cole Palmer
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 7 picks. Subscribe for more!
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More on Asian Handicap betting: https://www.betshoot.com/betting-guides/asian-handicap-betting/
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:54 Asian Handicap betting explained
4:23 Newsletter
5:39 Crystal Palace v Liverpool
6:42 Leicester City v Bournemouth
7:57 Arsenal v Southampton
9:11 Brentford v Wolves
10:07 West Ham v Ipswich
12:24 Man City v Fulham
14:15 Everton v Newcastle
15:48 Chelsea v Nottingham Forest
17:22 Aston Villa v Man United
19:30 Brighton v Spurs
21:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ravi discuss Arsenal's win over PSG, Dortmund's demolition of Celtic, and Barcelona's loss to Osasuna. They further analyse Dortmund's managerial situation, Barca's incredible youth integration, and Arsenal's defensive tendencies. Enjoy!
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
Timestamps
00:00 Episode Overview
00:23 Intro
2:35 Arsenal v PSG Review
3:08 Lineup Reaction
6:07 Tactical Breakdown
8:35 Absence of Dembele
9:14 PSG creating identity
10:27 Arsenal’s dominant defence
13:15 Are Arsenal too defensive?
17:10 Dortmund v Celtic Review
22:51 Dortmund under Sahin
26:31 Will Dortmund sack Sahin?
28:30 Barcelona’s loss to Osasuna
30:08 How to properly rotate your squad
38:56 Champions League format thoughts
40:00 La Masia player integration
46:58 Are some positions easier to break into?
54:25 Outro
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Patrick and Ted discuss the best way for Manchester United to move on from Erik Ten Hag and debate whether Cole Palmer is currently the best player in the Premier League. They also analyse the Madrid Derby and do a deep dive on Bayern Munich under new manager Vincent Kompany. Enjoy!
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
Timestamps:
00:00 Episode Overview
00:36 Intro
1:46 Bayern vs Leverkusen review
4:30 Bayern going under the radar
6:55 Match breakdown
9:47 Kompany’s impact
11:30 The Pep Guardiola Effect
13:52 Man United vs Spurs Review
18:58 United’s terrible midfield
19:32 Spurs looking dangerous
19:54 Ten Hag and Man United’s summer recruitment
23:56 Man United’s new manager hunt
40:59 Chelsea’s start to the season
43:34 How not to play out from the back
44:43 Nicolas Jackson’s hot start
45:00 Is Cole Palmer the best player in the League?
51:00 James Justin golazo
51:30 Madrid Derby Review
56:17 Outro
57:42 Variance Betting Subscription update
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Patrick and Ravi discuss how Man City can cope without Rodri, potential replacements, and a La Liga Roundup. They analyse Barcelona's strong start to the season, Real Madrid's start studded squad, Atletico Madrid's solid defence, and ownership issues in the league. Enjoy!
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
Timestamps:
00:00 Episode overview
00:37 Intro
1:53 Barcelona’s surprising form
2:30 Ter Stegan’s injury & replacements
9:09 Can Barcelona hold off Real Madrid?
13:16 Real Madrid’s recent form
15:44 Lacking balance in midfield
17:42 Madrid’s stacked attack
20:50 Concerns about defence
22:40 Atletico Madrid’s Strengths & Weaknesses
26:25 Analysing Atleti’s solid defence
29:13 Valencia’s struggles
31:40 Sevilla’s ownership issues
32:56 Valencia under Peter Lim
37:22 Rodri ACL injury
41:40 Impact on Man City
43:15 How can City cope?
47:10 What solution will Pep come up wIth?
50:18 Potential Rodri replacements
1:00:45 Outro
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Patrick and Ted discuss how Pep Guardiola didn't take advantage of Arsenal going down to 10 men, Danny Welbeck's rejuvenation, and Luis Diaz's improvement. They also recap all the other action from this weekend's Premier League games, including West Ham's horrible defence, and a deep dive into Arsenal's set-pieces. Enjoy!
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Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
00:00 Episode Overview
00:30 Intro
1:47 Crystal Palace v Manchester United Review
4:24 Thoughts on Zirkzee
6:33 United’s Improved Defence
7:37 Man City vs Arsenal Review
9:17 Calafiori Golazo
10:51 Gabriel Goal & Arsenal Set Pieces
15:40 Second Half Analysis
18:03 Arsenal Defence
21:38 West Ham v Chelsea Review
22:32 Thoughts on Lopetegui
24:38 West Ham Defensive Issues
27:44 Fulham v Newcastle Review
32:45 Liverpool v Bournemouth
36:00 Luis Diaz Improvement
37:30 Brighton v Nottingham
38:25 Goals Analysis
40:28 Danny Welbeck Rejuvenation
41:40 Refereeing In Premier League
43:28 Brighton Being A Young Arsenal
44:30 Weekend Recap
46:30 Outro
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his Premier League Matchday 5 picks and why he is betting AGAINST Liverpool. Subscribe for more!
Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe
Follow us on our Socials:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
00:45 Last Week Recap
1:12 TheTransferFlow & VarianceBetting
2:13 Closing Line Value
6:11 Why Does It Matter?
7:25 West Ham v Chelsea
9:17 Aston Villa v Wolves
10:41 Fulham v Newcastle
11:54 Leicester v Everton
13:42 Southampton v Ipswich
15:31 Liverpool v Bournemouth
17:59 Spurs v Brentford
19:31 Crystal Palace v Manchester United
21:37 Brighton v Nottingham Forest
22:37 Manchester City v Arsenal
24:45 Championship Betting
25:15 Conclusion
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Ted and Ravi discuss Manchester City and Inter Milan's chances of winning the Champions League, changes to Erling Haaland's role, Barcelona's strong start and their expectations for the season. They then answer some listener questions which include discussions on player stocks, what to do when teams begin to figure you out, and a deep dive into the use of data to overturn some traditional football opinions.
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
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TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Episode Overview
00:33 Introduction
2:38 Man City VS Inter Milan
3:20 Inter in the UCL
6:45 Man City’s UCL Squad
7:45 Man City’s New Style Of Play
12:50 New UCL Format
18:32 Player Fatigue
20:42 Barcelona As Contendors
22:10 Dani Olmo & Barca Injuries
23:35 Hansi Flick’s Bareclona
25:35 Emergence of Youngsters
27:17 Barcelona Expectations
29:05 Biggest Changes Under Flick
32:42 Barca’s UCL Schedule
33:08 Most Entertaining Team
33:42 Hansi Flick vs Xavi
36:25 Players Stocks
39:22 Stocks To Buy
40:14 Bournemouth Under Iraola
40:47 Teams Figuring You Out
43:36 Two Halves of a Season
46:30 Kieran McKenna
47:15 Using Data To Overturn Traditional Opinions
58:45 In Swinging Corners vs Out Swinging Corners
1:03:16 Outro
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Patrick and Ted start the episode by discussing the North London Derby and the weakness that Spurs continue to show in their midfield. Next, they move to Liverpool, who seemed to have fixed there defense, but were unable to get anything going offensively. After touching on City vs Brighton and United vs Southampton, they move to Newcastle's Internal power struggle, as Eddie Howe and Paul Mitchell compete for power. Finally, they end the episode with their thoughts on Chelsea vs Bournemouth (hint: not good) and West Ham vs Fulham. Enjoy!
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Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
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Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
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Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 - Intro
03:28 - Arsenal vs. Spurs
04:47 - The midfield battle
06:30 - Spurs crosses were not effective
07:38 - How teams can get value from crosses
09:23 - Watching the ball vs. the man
10:11 - Spurs' biggest weakness
10:41 - The type of midfielder Spurs needed
11:52 - More opportunities for mistakes
13:40 - The evolution of pressing
14:33 - Alexis Sanchez' pressing ability
15:32 - Arsenal's plan this game
18:39 - The launch of Variance Betting
19:38 - Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
19:53 - High handicaps coming off international break
20:43 - The signs of value of Nottingham Forest
22:22 - Liverpool's defense continues to shine
23:14 - Liverpool's offensive struggles
25:05 - Ryan Gravenberch in a deeper role
27:16 - Brentford vs. City
28:11 - Thomas Frank as Manager
31:12 - Brentford's possession #'s against City
31:28 - City's lack of pressing
32:05 - The problems Pep is facing
34:20 - Manchester United vs Southampton
35:37 - United's set piece goal
36:40 - Tyler Dibling
37:24 - Is Russell Martin's job safe?
40:13 - Newcastle's internal conflict
42:21 - Paul Mitchell vs Eddie Howe
44:24 - Newcastle are doing well in the table
44:46 - How do Newcastle mend things?
46:06 - Chelsea vs Bournemouth
47:17 - Subbing in Neto for Jadon Sancho
48:09 - Bad signs for long-term success
48:55 - Chelsea need a structured attack
50:53 - West Ham vs Fulham
51:37 - Danny Ings
53:21 - Brighton vs Ipswich
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Ted Knutson, former professional gambler, explains his best betting practices and discusses his Premier League Matchday 4 picks. Subscribe for more!
Join Variance Betting: https://www.thetransferflow.com/upgrade
Subscribe to our FREE newsletter: https://www.thetransferflow.com/subscribe
Follow us on our Socials:
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCe1WTKOt7byrELQcGRSzu1Q
X: https://x.com/TheTransferFlow
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thetransferflow/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@transferflowpodcast
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Introduction
1:44 Who is Ted Knutson?
2:20 Working With Pinnacle.com Products
3:26 Working at Brentford/Midtjylland & SmartOdds
4:05 Founding StatsBomb
4:25 Present Day — TheTransferFlow.com
4:58 Variance Betting Principles
5:21 Discount Bookies > Bonuses
8:20 Price Shop
10:37 Working with Models & Knowledge
12:35 Why Early Season is Tricky
13:54 Your Bets are your own
14:47 Market Implied (MI) Model
16:18 Be careful about Promoted Teams
17:18 Expected Goals (xG) Model
18:07 Caveats
21:06 Plugs
20:23 Recreational Sports Betting
22:32 Brighton v Ipswich Bet
23:52 Southampton v Man United Bet
25:11 Crystal Palace v Leicester Bet
26:02 Fulham v West Ham No Bet
26:25 Liverpool v Nottingham Forest Bet
27:25 Man City v Brentford No Bet
28:35 Aston Villa v Everton No Bet
29:46 Bournemouth v Chelsea Bet
31:20 Spurs v Arsenal Bet
32:39 Wolves v Newcastle No Bet
33:31 Recap
33:54 Outro
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The podcast currently has 37 episodes available.