There are probably right now five teams in a race for three spots. We take a close look at Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, City, Bournemouth and Newcastle and handicap the race. It's a close one!

Simon's projection website: https://analytic-fpl.streamlit.app/

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We wrote an article on financialization and soccer for Bloomberg, and it helped us crystallize our thinking on the state of the business of football. On labor costs and competition, on regulation and financialization, on Covid-era changes in the economic environment, on oligarch and state ownership and what it means for solidarity in the capital class, it's all here.

A whole bunch of links.

Our Bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-01-29/how-football-has-become-a-hotbed-of-financial-engineering

Caley's further thoughts: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/further-thoughts-on-the-business

Interview with Jon Sindreu on Barca's finances: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/14587568-barcelona-finance-with-jon-sindreu

Interview with Jonathan Clegg on the formation of the Premier League: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/2510416

Grace Robertson on the Premier League tv deal: https://www.graceonfootball.com/p/the-premier-league-is-selling-its

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After multiple contradictory developments, Tottenham landed Mathys Tel on loan from Bayern and also signed a deal with Bayern and Tel for an option that remains hard to pin down. We talk about the story here and how it probably went down (we disagree a little on this!) and what kind of player Tel is and what Tottenham can expect. 

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Two big matches between teams in the chase for the Champions League places. What we learned from City's new tactical approach, how Chelsea approached this match, and how Bournemouth won big. 

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Another weekend, another loss, another tumble further into the bottom half of the table for Tottenham and United. We talk about the problem of what a club should do when things are bad and yet there isn't a lot to be done immediately and they really just need a longer-term strategy or better execution of such. 

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Manchester City are adding Omar Marmoush, Abdukodir Khusanov, Vitor Reis in the same window and maybe also Andrea Cambiaso. Will these signings fix the crisis at Man City? 

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Usually when things look a little funky in the Premier League table, you can count on an analytics podcast to tell you it's mostly variance. But this season, the wide open race for top four or five really reflects a pile-up of pretty good teams. We walk through these contenders and how they've gotten here. 

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A new financial fair play / registration crisis at Barcelona as a judge backs La Liga's determination that they cannot register Dani Olmo under La Liga FFP, setting him up for free agency. But Barcelona's financial situation has changed a lot in the last couple years, and the possible negative effects of this are not as stark as they were potentially in the past.

And we talk a little about how Barca lost their lead in the table.

El Confidential on the court ruling: https://www.elconfidencial.com/deportes/futbol/liga/2024-12-31/dani-olmo-inscripcion-juez-cautelar-laporta-laliga_4034860/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=BotoneraWeb

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It is still the most interesting statistical and tactical story in the Premier League. In world football probably. Pep Guardiola is trying some new tweaks on his system and his team keeps dropping points. We talk through what's changed since the slide began, what happened against Everton, and what to expect in the transfer window. 

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Leicester City fired Steve Cooper a few weeks ago, and this weekend the two managers in 19th and 20th place in the Premier League, Gary O'Neil of Wolves and Russell Martin of Southampton, both got the sack. We take a look at the very different stories of these three clubs, what we expect from the relegation race this season, and the trend of defensive possession at the bottom of the table. 

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