We had a goofy final day of the Champions League and a few thoughts on Benfica and Real Madrid and the joy of whiparound soccer.

And then we get into Caley's new study on The Set Piece Revolution and the evidence that the game-changing insights here are mostly just chucking it into the mixer and crowding the keeper. We disagree(!) about some likely responses and we discuss what is likely to come next as set piece thought continues to spread.

Read the full study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolution

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With seven weeks of the Champions League League Phase complete, it is properly all to play for in the chase for qualification to the knockouts and especially in the chase for top eight and a bye into the round of 16. We go through the table and the impossibility of precisely gaming out all the scenarios.

Also! The Deloitte Money League data is out and it shows both the current financial dominance of the Premier League and the low rate of growth in inflation-adjusted football revenue since 2019. 

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The attempt to reform Real Madrid concludes, and it is reported that it probably was never really an attempt to reform Real Madrid in the first place. We discuss the distinct highs and lows of Xabi's tenure in Madrid, why we are (relatively!) down on the club from here, what we learned about Alonso as a manager, and what may be next for him. 

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Ruben Amorim actively got himself sacked by Manchester United. We talk about how we ended up here, why nothing about the process looks well-handled, what's next for United and why United's management structure makes it nearly impossible to predict what's next. 

On Ratcliffe and Ineos with Ben Walsh: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/16787734-united-ratcliffe-ineos-and-cycling-with-ben-walsh

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The long midtable in the Premier League is exceptionally competitive and just plain good. We talk about the underlying economic and game-structural reasons this has happened, and then we get into (most of) the 6th to 14th place clubs—Manchester United, Spurs, Palace, Brighton, Brentford, Newcastle and more—and their chances at making a run for the Champions League. 

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What's going on with Antoine Semenyo's transfer market and what sort of analytics are we using to evaluate him? Has Xabi Alonso saved his job at Real Madrid? And can the boys squeeze three topics into a single podcast? Listen to find out!

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Set pieces are making up an unprecedently large percentage of Premier League goal-scoring. At the same time, open play goal scoring is down significantly. We work through the data on tactical changes in the Premier League and European football since 2010 and the shockingly quick shift in goal-scoring this season. 

Is it something that the powers that be will have to intervene to fix in the rules of the game? As always, the Double Pivot answer is "maybe, but we would like a larger sample size."

Set piece goal scoring graph: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelcaley.bsky.social/post/3ma5anvdgr22e

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Mohamed Salah decided to make some news this week. We walk through how and why his unload-the-clip statement on the club and the manager happened and what comes next for Liverpool, for the front office and for the manager and players, who still need to figure out a set of tactics that get the most out of their stars, with or without Salah. 

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There has been a lawsuit filed against Tony Bloom and his sports gambling syndicate alleging, well, the lawsuit is actually just asking for money. But it is also about how sports gambling syndicates work and specifically how the one owned and run by the owner of Brighton works, and we wanted to talk about that and about Premier League gambling policy. 

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A hot start on points masked underlying problems, but a blowout loss to Arsenal and what should have been a blowout loss to Chelsea have brought focus back to what seems to be wrong at Tottenham. We break it down. 

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