The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

There is so much football to discuss that this podcast could not contain it all and part two will be a subscriber episode. Here we get to the acknowledgement of Tottenham and a much more in-depth discussion of both PSG - Chelsea and Real Madrid - Man City, two matches that were much more similar than the scores and the ensuing narratives might suggest.

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We discuss the Round of 16 and why it seems like there are fewer and fewer new matchups in the Champions League knockouts and what might have to be done to address this.

And then, it's time for the return of Bible History Corner and, neither a review nor a summary of Jason Staples new book Paul and the Restoration of Israel but a preparation for it with extended background first on the history of Pauline Studies, and second on the history of Ancient Judaism, the Kingdoms of Israel, the Babylonian and Assyrian conquests, and tying all of this back around to Paul so we can talk about the book. 

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There have been many dramatic results recently and the title race in the Premier League is indeed on between Arsenal and Manchester City. Nonetheless, the Double Pivot take remains the boring analytics answer that sometimes results happen without new or particularly interesting causes.

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With the Analytics Dead Zone fully underway in league football, we step back, take a question from the mailbag, and play "Squad Player or Star Player?" with James Garner, Joao Pedro and Gabriel Martinelli. 

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That's right. For the Winter Olympics we have a whole podcast dedicated to biathlon, joined by Jordan and RJ of the Penalty Loop Podcast to teach us all about how to watch biathlon like an expert, understanding the different events as well as the kinds of data and analysis used in biathlon, the players and teams to watch at the Olympics, and we did not skimp on the biathlon drama either. 

Check out the Penalty Loop Podcast: http://penaltyloop.com/penalty-loop-podcast/

And Biathlon Analytics: https://biathlonanalytics.com/

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The Double Pivot has introduced a term into the football vernacular and we talk through the set pieces story, Caley's study, and Jonathan Northcroft's column in the Times. And then we talk transfers including Marc Guehi, Antoine Semenyo and Ademola Lookman, which leads naturally into a discussion of private equity in football. 

The Northcroft column: https://www.thetimes.com/sport/football/article/premier-league-goalkeepers-set-pieces-ft66m8hn5

Set pieces study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolution

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We had a goofy final day of the Champions League and a few thoughts on Benfica and Real Madrid and the joy of whiparound soccer.

And then we get into Caley's new study on The Set Piece Revolution and the evidence that the game-changing insights here are mostly just chucking it into the mixer and crowding the keeper. We disagree(!) about some likely responses and we discuss what is likely to come next as set piece thought continues to spread.

Read the full study: https://www.expectinggoals.com/p/the-set-piece-revolution

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With seven weeks of the Champions League League Phase complete, it is properly all to play for in the chase for qualification to the knockouts and especially in the chase for top eight and a bye into the round of 16. We go through the table and the impossibility of precisely gaming out all the scenarios.

Also! The Deloitte Money League data is out and it shows both the current financial dominance of the Premier League and the low rate of growth in inflation-adjusted football revenue since 2019. 

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The attempt to reform Real Madrid concludes, and it is reported that it probably was never really an attempt to reform Real Madrid in the first place. We discuss the distinct highs and lows of Xabi's tenure in Madrid, why we are (relatively!) down on the club from here, what we learned about Alonso as a manager, and what may be next for him. 

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Ruben Amorim actively got himself sacked by Manchester United. We talk about how we ended up here, why nothing about the process looks well-handled, what's next for United and why United's management structure makes it nearly impossible to predict what's next. 

On Ratcliffe and Ineos with Ben Walsh: https://www.buzzsprout.com/819853/episodes/16787734-united-ratcliffe-ineos-and-cycling-with-ben-walsh

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