The Double Pivot: Soccer analysis, analytics, and commentary

Caley has built a new projection and team rating model so we talk through what it tells us about the Premier League right now. Arsenal's incredible defense, Newcastle's confusing defense, Liverpool's problem defense, Palace's attack, Spurs not looking entirely terrible, Sunderland looking strong, and more. 

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We are joined by two of the Double Pivot's official correspondents -- Salacious Gossip Correspondent Joel Wertheimer and Financial Shenanigans Correspondent Skanda Amarnath -- for the second annual Premier League worst contracts draft. 

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It's analytics podcasting time. We are table sorting and talking Arsenal, City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Newcastle and Manchester United. 

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We continue to monitor teams and players that are underperforming our expectations, or, perhaps, overperforming and then suddenly dramatically underperforming our expectations in the case of Real Madrid. What went wrong in the Madrid Derby and what does it tell us about Xabi's new-look Madrid? And after Liverpool's underwhelming early season statistics finally translated into dropped points against Crystal Palace, we consider why Florian Wirtz is not producing at his previous level. 

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Ignore the intro, it's a lie.

We take up the big Arsenal - Man City match from Sunday and what it tells us about the two clubs and try to intervene in the high-spirited but somewhat misguided discourse that's arisen from the match. 

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Villa and Liverpool both have underlying numbers are running well behind expectations after four games, but also their slow starts are reflected very differently in the actual table. We get into what's gone wrong so far on tactical and personnel levels, how much we expect things to bounce back, and how much the real points they've taken affect this analysis.

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Nuno Espirito Santo has been sacked by one of the Premier League's more chaotic owners, we talk about that drama and the added factor that Forest hired Ange Postecoglou to replace him, a manager practically his absolute tactical opposite.

Plus we talked USMNT a bit. 

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Most of the headline business on deadline way was as expected, but we found both some unexpected transfers lower down the table to discuss. And we consider what it means that the Premier League, and especially the top of the Premier League, spent so much money this summer. 

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Liverpool struggled badly against Newcastle while City lost to Spurs, and both matches captured the current tactical meta in different ways. We walk through the history of where the extreme control tactics of contemporary football came from and how clubs are now responding to control with different versions of chaos, pressing, athleticism and directness. Looking back on Pep, Jose, Klopp, Tuchel and how their ideas shaped the game and what might come next. 

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Arsenal got the three points, but their close-fought 1-0 victory over Manchester United felt strange to watch and was a major statistical outlier in a number of ways. We are joined by CBS Sports' James Benge to discuss what he saw from Arsenal in their opening match and what it might mean for the season.

Follow James online: https://bsky.app/profile/jamesbenge.bsky.social

And read his article on the match: https://www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/arsenal-were-faster-than-ever-in-win-at-manchester-united-but-is-new-style-here-to-stay-or-circumstantial/

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