We take a mailbag question on the math of goal difference, projecting points from goals, and what it tells us about the game of soccer.

This one is for the nerds. 

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Four big teams, two big games, Arsenal vs PSG, Barcelona vs Inter, it's a soccer analytics podcast. 

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We are joined by Dan Davies, author of the fantastic new book The Unaccountability Machine, to talk about the book and the new ways of thinking about business and capitalism that he introduces, and then to discuss how this model of thinking can help explain why European football is the way it is.

The Unaccountability Machine: https://press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/book/chicago/U/bo252799883.html

Dan Davies' newsletter, Back of Mind: https://backofmind.substack.com/

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We break down Arsenal's big win, Real Madrid's toothlessness, Inter's away result, and why we continue to see PSG and Barcelona as the best remaining teams in the tournament, probably the best teams in the entire world. And that brings us to Lamine Yamal, who is good.

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No football just literature and history.

A Drop of Corruption: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/735559/a-drop-of-corruption-by-robert-jackson-bennett/

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Tactics Tom is in charge for England the results were the same and the football was not scintillating but it was tactically distinct and interesting to discuss. So we had Grace Robertson of graceonfootball.com join us to discuss it. 

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We are joined by the Athletic's Adam Crafton to discuss his and his colleagues' reporting on Manchester United, what's happened since Jim Ratcliffe took over, what they claim they're doing and what it means for the club. And then we also discuss the increasingly explicit American political context of the upcoming World Cup and international soccer competitions and his reporting on that topic as well. 

Crafton et al on the most recent round of layoffs: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6157358/2025/02/25/manchester-united-job-cuts-details/

And on US VISA policy and the World Cup: https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6163959/2025/02/28/2026-world-cup-usa-visa-wait-trump-fifa/

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We are joined by financial journalist (and soccer and cycling fan) Ben Walsh to learn about the great sport of road racing, the background of INEOS as a sports ownership group, and how fans of cycling were well ahead of the curve on what to expect from Ratcliffe at Manchester United. 

Check out Ben's newsletter, The Bender: https://bendwalsh.substack.com/

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Big matches in the Serie A title race get their due and then we talk about the team with the best underlying numbers in the Premier League recently, which as you surely all know is Crystal Palace.

Palace:  https://bsky.app/profile/scott.cannonstats.com/post/3ljdm73v3wn2o

Ovalle: https://bsky.app/profile/lawsonsv.bsky.social/post/3ljjheamocs26

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Huge six-pointers all around and we take stock of the teams we covered last week (City, Forest, Newcastle, Chelsea, Bournemouth) and ask how much we need to think further about Brighton and Villa after they made up ground. 

Simon Tinsley's PL projections: https://analytic-fpl.streamlit.app/

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