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Episode Link: Find this and other episodes at The Conditional Release Program on RedCircle.

Recorded: May 5, 2025 (two days after the Australian Federal Election)

Hosts: Jack the Insider & Hong Kong Jack

In this episode, The Two Jacks dissect the stunning Australian federal election results, explore a surprising political turnaround in Canada, ponder the next Pope, and touch on global political shifts from the UK to Germany, and the latest from Trump's America.

(00:00:00) Introduction & Australian Election: An Orderly Affair Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick off by praising the smooth and festive nature of the Australian federal election, highlighting the efficiency of the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) and the beloved "democracy sausage."

(00:02:21) The Pre-Poll Phenomenon A discussion on the increasing trend of pre-polling, with over half of Australians casting their vote before election day. The hosts debate the merits of shortening the pre-polling period, with Hong Kong Jack lamenting the decline of traditional Saturday voting.

(00:06:06) Betting Blunders & Historic Results Labor's remarkable journey from $15 outsiders to $1.07 unbackable favourites to form government is reviewed. The episode highlights key historical markers:

• Anthony Albanese: The first Prime Minister re-elected since 2004.
• A significant Labor victory, with Albanese leading the first government in Australian political history to increase its majority in a second term.

(00:09:17) Seat Swings, Mea Culpas & The Greens' Tumble The hosts reflect on their pre-election predictions against the reality of significant swings to Labor (e.g., a 10% swing in Bennelong). Labor is projected to win around 90 seats.

• The Greens: A tough election, with leader Adam Bandt likely to lose his seat in Melbourne. Zoe Daniel (Teal) is also in a precarious position in Goldstein. The Greens may lose Ryan back to the Liberals and potentially face no representation in the House of Representatives.

(00:13:38) A UK Perspective & Labor's Resurgence Hong Kong Jack shares insights from the UK, where observers noted Labor's landslide and the "leaderless, rudderless, pointless" state of the Coalition. This challenges the narrative that incumbents always lose, citing recent Canadian and Australian results.

(00:16:27) Liberal Campaign Catastrophe: A "Don't Do This" Case Study A deep dive into the Liberal Party's "dreadful campaign," marked by:

• The ill-conceived work-from-home policy, poorly communicated by Senator Jane Hume and lacking consultation.
• A string of policy backflips and poorly planned announcements (e.g., fuel excise cut, Melbourne airport rail funding announced at a winery).
• Peter Dutton has accepted responsibility for the campaign's failures.

(00:22:46) Trump's Take & The Muted MAGA Effect Donald Trump's reaction to the Australian election (congratulating "Albert" while feigning ignorance of Dutton) is discussed. The hosts agree that MAGA influence was minimal, with Albanese's message of "kindness is not weakness" resonating more strongly.

(00:25:13) The Liberal Party's Existential Crossroads A critical analysis of the Liberal Party's future, having lost traditional heartland seats and failed to broaden its appeal beyond an aging demographic.

• The danger of vacating the political centre and the flawed strategy of chasing a new "working-class" constituency.
• Hong Kong Jack draws parallels to Labor's wilderness years (1977, 1996), emphasizing the need for honest self-reflection for any chance of recovery.
• Labor's structural advantages: benefiting from Green preferences and a more unified progressive base compared to a fragmented right-wing, further diluted by entities like Clive Palmer's party.

(00:39:58) Senate Snapshot: Stability Prevails An overview of the projected Senate makeup across the states:

• NSW & VIC: Likely Labor 3, Liberals 2, Greens 1.
• QLD: Labor 2, Libs 2, Greens 1, with One Nation's Malcolm Roberts likely re-elected.
• TAS: Jacqui Lambie expected to return.
• ACT: Independent David Pocock secures his quota alongside a Labor senator.
• Overall, the Senate composition is unlikely to see dramatic changes. David Pocock is commended for his diligent work.

(00:42:25) Who Will Lead the Liberals? A Party in Search of Direction Speculation on the future leadership of the Liberal Party, with few obvious candidates emerging from a depleted frontbench. Dan Tehan is mentioned as a possible moderate caretaker, though the path back to government looks long and arduous.

(00:45:58) Albanese: The New "Labor God" & Chalmers' Contribution Anthony Albanese is lauded for his historic achievement, with Jim Chalmers highlighted as a key performer and media operator for Labor, despite Hong Kong Jack's gentle ribbing about his lengthy essays.

(00:48:56) Canadian Politics Upended: Liberals' Shock Comeback A look at the Canadian election, where the Liberals achieved a stunning turnaround, with Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre facing a potential seat loss. Donald Trump's inflammatory rhetoric towards Canada is seen as a contributing factor to this shift.

(00:52:12) Vatican Watch: Speculating on the Next Pope With Pope Francis's papacy in its later stages, the hosts discuss potential successors. Italian cardinals like Pietro Parolin are frontrunners, but names from Africa and the Philippines also surface. Hong Kong Jack references Morris West's The Shoes of the Fisherman for insights into papal conclaves.

(00:55:52) Sir Tony Blair on Net Zero & The Reality of Fossil Fuels Former UK PM Sir Tony Blair's call for a rethink of Net Zero policies due to cost implications is examined. Global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise (gas +2.7%, coal +1%, oil +0.8%), underscoring the challenge of the energy transition.

(01:00:24) Trump's First 100 Days (Again): Low Approval, Tariff Troubles & Papal Attire Donald Trump's second term hits the 100-day mark with historically low approval ratings (39%). The economic impact of his tariffs is starting to bite (LA port imports down one-third, US economy shrinking). Adding to the unusual, Trump has been pictured in papal robes on the White House website, even expressing a desire to be Pope.

(01:05:49) UK Political Fragmentation: Reform's Rise, Tories' Fall The UK's political landscape remains volatile. Recent local and by-election results project a national vote share that would see the Reform party at 30% and the Conservatives decimated to around 15% and potentially only five seats.

(01:08:44) Germany Considers Banning Far-Right AFD Germany is contemplating a ban on the far-right AFD party, the largest single party in the Bundestag. The hosts discuss the problematic nature of banning popular political movements, arguing it often backfires.

(01:11:21) Jay Rayner on Media: Mainstream vs. Social Food critic Jay Rayner's comments on the state of media are discussed, questioning the perceived universal informedness of mainstream journalists and acknowledging that both traditional and social media produce "rubbish."

(01:15:29) AFL Round-Up: Carlton's Collapse, Collingwood-Geelong Classic

• Carlton suffers a 10-goal drubbing by Adelaide, with Jack Silvani's absence keenly felt.
• Collingwood vs. Geelong is hailed as a "cracker" game, showcasing great skill and sportsmanship.
• Concerns are raised about key AFL games not being available on free-to-air television, potentially alienating younger fans.

(01:22:18) Cricket News: Indian Prodigy & Vale "The Buzz" A 17-year-old Indian cricketer makes waves in the IPL with a century. The hosts pay tribute to Carlton AFL legend Peter Bosustow ("The Buzz"), who passed away after a battle with cancer, remembering his electrifying impact on the game.

(01:27:27) NRL Update & Women's State of Origin Shines The Bulldogs continue their strong NRL run, while the Panthers finally notch a win. The NRL is praised for its successful promotion of the women's game, with the Women's State of Origin proving highly watchable.

(01:29:51) An Ode to Whale Waste: Ecological Importance Hong Kong Jack shares a fascinating environmental tidbit on the crucial role of whale excrement and urine in ocean ecosystems, highlighting a baleen whale's impressive daily urine output of 950 litres.

(01:32:10) Wrapping Up: A Transformative Election & How to Connect Jack the Insider concludes that Australia has witnessed a significant political transformation, with Anthony Albanese poised to be a long-term, impactful leader.

• Connect with the hosts:
• Jack the Insider: On X (formerly Twitter) @JackTheInsider (DMs open)
• Hong Kong Jack: On Twitter and his Substack.