We are back with a classic news episode. We lead with Epstein - the thorn in Donald Trump's diaper. Did he suck off Bill Clinton? Probably not. Does he really give off a 'generous lover' aura?

We also check out how old Tredders is going. It's not great. To summarise, Port Adelaide asked him to apologise for his comments on our Jewish friends and he said no.

We take a quick look at the mountain of nazi news that has recently developed and bask in the schaudenfreude of the post Macquarie Street consequence festival. We recorded on Sunday so I have added a bit of an update on Matty Grutes who has had a absolute shit of a week. We look at some of the other dummies who thought the time was right to take off the mask. The time is never right to take off the mask! Get off twitter and touch some grass. People still hate nazis.

In SovCits we look at a previous SovCit who remains a bit SovCitty - Andrew Morton Garrett who is a very funny boy. A winemaker who may have sampled too much of his own product. He now owns Australia. Geez. Better not laugh at him I suppose. We mentioned him in episode 156 and hopefully we will pump out an episode on him. He really is hilarious.

And of course we have Pete - a man who recently dared go to the shops without shoes or a shirt, likely after a swim at the beach, and then made the truly sinister motion of putting his hands in his hair. As someone with very little hair this offends me on several levels, so I think it's completely reasonable what news.com.au decided to say about this tawdry affair. At the shops. Near a beach.

Enjoy!

Recorded: November 6, 2025 (Oaks Day)

Hosts: Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) & Hong Kong Jack

Join Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack as they dissect the Coalition's spectacular implosion, the Nationals' abandonment of net zero, and why Dennis Shanahan called this opposition "the worst in 40 years." Plus: Trump's approval hits rock bottom, US midterm election results send shockwaves, and why Ireland elected a grim president who toured Syria with Assad.

00:00:25 - Welcome & Oaks Day Chat

The Jacks kick off discussing Melbourne's Oaks Day and why it was always better than the Cup for racing enthusiasts. Hong Kong Jack shares a memorable story about a judge who mysteriously adjourned court so everyone could hit the track.​

00:02:39 - Coalition in Crisis: Net Zero Abandoned

The National Party abandons net zero emissions targets, putting enormous pressure on the Liberal Party. Dennis Shanahan declares this the "worst opposition in 40 years" after a horror question time where Alex Hawke couldn't understand basic parliamentary procedures.​

00:05:38 - South Australian Liberal Party Mass Exodus

Over 200 members quit the SA Liberal Party in protest of Susan Ley's leadership and failure to abandon net zero. The state branch, dominated by hard-right figures like Senator Alex Antic, has a history of internal bloodshed.​

00:07:33 - What Does Net Zero Actually Mean?

The Jacks discuss how net zero has become an "article of faith" for enough Australians to matter politically, even if most people can't define it. It essentially represents action on climate change in voters' minds.​

00:12:29 - Can Susan Ley Survive to Christmas?

Hong Kong Jack predicts Ley might not survive until Christmas as Liberal leader, noting the killing season is upon us with the last parliamentary sitting coming up. Her best chance? That nobody else wants the awful job.​

00:14:38 - The James Patterson Problem

Senator James Patterson is described as a rising star who actually reads his briefs, but he's stuck in the Senate. Finding him a safe House seat in Victoria is virtually impossible with Monash (the safest Liberal seat) held by only 4%.​

00:16:58 - Liberal Party: From Major to Minor

Jack the Insider argues we're witnessing the Liberal Party's descent from major to minor party status, not unlike what happened to the United Australia Party in 1943. With only 26 members in parliament and 24% primary vote, the party faces potential oblivion.​

00:18:34 - One Nation's Rise: 15-16% and Growing

One Nation's support has surged from 6% to 15-16%, with the party establishing branches across NSW and Queensland. The biggest threat isn't to the Liberals, but to the Nationals in mining-based seats like Hunter and Capricornia.​

00:21:46 - COP in Adelaide: A Billion Dollar Boondoggle?

The proposed Conference of the Parties climate summit in Adelaide carries a $1 billion price tag. Hong Kong Jack questions who would notice if it didn't happen "apart from the grifters."​

00:23:27 - National Anti-Corruption Commission Troubles

Commissioner Paul Brereton faces serious conflict of interest issues due to his Army Reserve role and involvement in Afghanistan war crimes inquiries. The commission operates largely in secret, disappointing those who wanted an ICAC-style public inquiry.​

00:28:23 - RoboDebt: Why No Criminal Charges?

Discussion of the SBS documentary on RoboDebt and why senior public servants who knew the scheme was illegal haven't faced criminal charges. Some even got promoted despite their roles in the scandal.​

00:30:19 - Bureau of Meteorology Website Disaster

The BOM's new website launched right before severe Queensland storms, leaving users unable to understand warnings. The acting CEO was dragged before Minister Murray Watt for a ritual flogging and awkward video apology.​

00:35:52 - "Free" Solar Power Announcement

Chris Bowen announces three hours of free solar power daily for homes with smart meters in NSW, SE Queensland, and SA. Hong Kong Jack calls it "smoke and mirrors" - really just an attempt to shift demand to low-usage periods.​

00:38:16 - Streaming Services Must Fund Aussie Content

New laws will require streaming platforms to invest 10% of expenditure or 7.5% of revenue in Australian content. Hong Kong Jack immediately asks if 98% can go to true crime documentaries.​

00:41:56 - Coalition Support Crashes to Record Low 24%

Newspoll shows Coalition primary vote at just 24%, down from 40% in February. Combined with Labor's 33-34%, less than 60% of voters support the major parties - down from 80% in 2004.​

00:44:39 - Andrew Neil: The Death of Centre-Right Parties

Discussion of Andrew Neil's speech to the Centre for Independent Studies about how conservative parties have lost the metropolitan, educated "lanyard class" who were once their base. The UK Conservatives now hold just 9 metropolitan seats.​

00:48:34 - The Great Inversion: Rich Counties Vote Democrat

In the 1950s, Republicans won 56% of America's richest counties. In 2024, Democrats won 190 of the 200 richest counties. The establishment institutions - universities, judiciary, civil service - have all shifted centre-left.​

00:51:19 - US Employment & Immigration Crackdown

US unemployment sits at 4.3%, but labor shortages are emerging as ICE sweeps up workers and visa costs skyrocket to $100,000. Meanwhile, Trump's disapproval rating hits 63% - the highest of either term.​

00:52:53 - Virginia & New Jersey: Democrats Dominate

Tuesday's elections saw Democrats win overwhelmingly in traditionally blue areas, with every single county shifting toward Democrats - the complete reverse of 2024's presidential election pattern. Latino voters showed 30% leads for Democrats.​

00:59:28 - Cost of Living Kills Administrations

Both Trump and Biden made the same mistake: telling Americans inflation is under control while grocery bills say otherwise. The New York mayor-elect won by focusing relentlessly on reducing childcare and living costs.​

01:02:21 - Trump Has the World's Biggest Laser Pointer

Discussion of how Trump controls the news cycle while Americans struggle with real costs. "Trump has the biggest laser pointer in the world and all the media are cats" chasing wherever he points it.​

01:03:23 - Millennials Aren't Becoming Conservative

Unlike previous generations, millennials in their 40s with mortgages and kids aren't shifting right. They continue voting left, with Liberals only leading in the 65+ demographic (52-48). Housing affordability drives cynicism and socialist sympathies.​

01:07:20 - New York's New Socialist Mayor

Mandami wins NYC mayor's race with strong support from new arrivals who feel they'll never get a fair go. Long-time residents still voted for the corrupt Andrew Cuomo, knowing what a "terrible human being" he is.​

01:09:13 - News in Brief

European firms create $6.5B SpaceX rival - Hungary begs for Russian oil exemption - Israeli startup raises $60M for sun-reflecting climate tech that could disrupt weather - Gaza rebuilding cost hits $70B - Trump companies made $1B in crypto profits - North Korea builds museum for Ukraine war dead - Ireland elects grim anti-NATO president who toured Syria with Assad.​

01:13:55 - Supreme Court Tariff Showdown

SCOTUS hears arguments on Trump's emergency tariff powers - a 50-50 call that could force refunds of all tariff money collected and potentially save the presidency by making him walk it back.​

01:16:45 - Government Shutdown & Dick Cheney's Death

The shutdown continues as 9 of 10 states most reliant on food assistance are red states. Dick Cheney dies at 84, described by critics as someone who should have been tried as a war criminal and by W as "among the finest public servants of his generation."​

1. "The Coalition's 24% Problem"
2. "Net Zero to Hero: How the Nats Torpedoed the Libs"
3. "Worst Opposition in 40 Years: Coalition Chaos"
4. "Millionaires, Millennials, and the Death of Conservative Politics"
5. "The Laser Pointer Presidency: Trump's Media Circus"
6. "From Major to Minor: The Liberal Party's Long Goodbye"
7. "Cost of Living: The Killer That Never Misses"
8. "Susan Ley's Impossible Choice: Net Zero or Political Oblivion"

Next Episode: Episode 134

Produced by: Joel (currently surviving law school exams)

Thanks for listening to Two Jacks - where Australian and international politics get the analysis they deserve.

AI slop shownotes as usual. Apologies for delay.

Episode recorded: October 31, 2025

Hosts: Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) and Jack (Hong Kong Jack)

1. "Halloween, Heists, and the House of Windsor"
2. "From Prince Andrew to Patriotism: A Global Round-Up"
3. "The Great Unraveling: Royals, Republics, and Rock T-Shirts"
4. "Crown Jewels, Cricket, and Cultural Appropriation"
5. "Episode 132: When Privilege Meets Reality"

00:00:26 - Welcome & Halloween Celebrations

The Jacks kick off with a discussion about Halloween and All Souls Day, debating whether it's an American import or a genuine cultural celebration. Hong Kong Jack describes the costume-clad children heading to school and the refreshing lack of political correctness in Halloween dress.

00:03:15 - Americanisation of Culture Debate

Jack challenges the hypocrisy of those who complain about American cultural influence while wearing blue jeans, sneakers, and listening to rock and roll.

00:04:16 - Prince Andrew's Downfall

Deep dive into Prince Andrew's stripping of royal titles and exile to Sandringham. The hosts discuss the ongoing Epstein scandal, alleged misconduct, and the monarchy's survival strategy. Jack the Insider argues this is about protecting the institution itself, not just managing Andrew's behavior.

00:08:25 - Royal Entitlement & The Succession

Discussion of Andrew's bloated sense of entitlement, his eighth place in line to the throne, and comparisons to Edward VIII. The hosts debate whether the Royal Family can truly cut Andrew adrift or if he remains a necessary burden.

00:12:36 - Copyright, Paywalls, and Making a Dollar

Analysis of a copyright controversy involving an aggregator charging $100/month to over 100 prominent Australians for content stolen from behind paywalls. The Australian media's response and the broader implications for journalism funding.

00:20:30 - AI and Copyright Protection

The Albanese government's move to enshrine copyright protections against tech giants like Meta/Facebook, which pirated millions of books to train AI models. The Productivity Commission's controversial position favoring tech companies over creators.

00:24:48 - Can the Left Be Patriotic?

Joe Hildebrand's campaign questioning left-wing patriotism sparks a broader conversation about what Australian values actually mean, the "Build Back Australia" movement, and why we can't manufacture cars anymore.

00:32:27 - The Anzac Day Revival

Tracing how Anzac Day went from near-extinction in the 1970s to becoming a major cultural touchstone, with young Australians traveling to Gallipoli, the Kokoda Track, and other war memorial sites.

00:35:47 - Immigration and Cultural Strength

Jack's powerful argument that the true test of patriotism is whether new arrivals see themselves as Australian and whether our culture is strong enough to absorb them—contrasting with Europe's struggles with multiculturalism.

00:40:13 - Organized Crime and the Tobacco Black Market

Coles announces a 57% drop in cigarette sales as Australia's tobacco excise policies create a multi-billion dollar black market. Discussion of whether reducing excise is the only way to combat entrenched organized crime.

00:47:46 - Stamp Duty as a Housing Barrier

Reserve Bank Governor Michelle Bullock criticizes stamp duty as preventing retirees from downsizing and workers from relocating. Analysis of how $65,000 in stamp duty on a $1.5M property creates market paralysis.

00:50:46 - One Nation Rebrands

Pauline Hanson drops her name from the party as One Nation polls at 15% and builds electoral infrastructure. Comparisons to the Australian Democrats' evolution and discussion of whether they can become a serious second-tier party.

00:54:29 - The Great French Jewel Heist

Updates on arrests following the $150M Louvre heist of French crown jewels—were they criminal masterminds or idiots without an exit plan?

00:55:50 - Japan's First Woman Prime Minister

Japan's impressive new conservative Prime Minister, her Margaret Thatcher connection, and the challenges of governing in Japan's volatile political environment.

00:57:12 - Argentina's Milei Wins Big

Javier Milei's landslide midterm victory (41% of the vote) raises questions about Trump's financial bailout and the role of foreign aid in domestic politics.

00:59:15 - Gaza Ceasefire and Hamas Control

Analysis of the fragile Gaza ceasefire, Hamas reasserting control, and the impossible dilemma of who will enforce peace when no country wants the casualties.

01:02:17 - Anthony Albanese's Joy Division T-Shirt

The controversy over the PM wearing a Joy Division band t-shirt (with Nazi concentration camp origins) off the VIP plane. Jane Hume's dismissal: "Anyone wearing a rock band t-shirt is a bit naff."

01:05:32 - APEC Conference in South Korea

Trump's meetings with Xi Jinping and other Pacific leaders, with results to be determined in the coming months.

01:06:41 - Politicians and Fake Backstories

From George Santos to Gavin Newsom claiming he lived on "Wonder Bread and mac and cheese" despite being from wealthy Getty-connected family. Kevin Rudd's "homeless" car story and Malcolm Turnbull's Double Bay childhood. The Jeanette Howard story: insisting her train driver father be called a "locomotive engineer."

01:11:30 - Iran's Hijab Retreat

After executing protesters over headscarf enforcement, Iran suddenly pulls back on restrictions. Are US and Israeli strikes forcing the regime to moderate for survival?

01:13:47 - The Richest Counties Flip

Andrew Neil's observation: In Eisenhower's era, Republicans won 190 of the 200 richest US counties. In 2024, Kamala Harris won 190 of the 200 richest counties—a complete reversal showing the transformation of party alignment.

01:15:40 - Women's Cricket World Cup

Australia's women lose to India in a thrilling semi-final despite Phoebe Litchfield's brilliance. The hosts argue it's good for the sport to not have one team dominate indefinitely.

01:17:21 - Ashes Selection Speculation

Debate over Australia's top six for the Perth Test: Khawaja and Manus to open, with Smith, Head, Green, and Webster rounding out the batting order. Steve Smith's incredible captaincy stats: averaging 70 with 16 centuries.

01:22:16 - England's Jofra Archer Problem

Questions about whether England will risk selecting injury-prone Archer despite no first-class cricket since July and missing New Zealand ODI games.

01:23:02 - Manchester City's Penalty Drama

Erling Haaland's bizarre penalty miss against Sporting Lisbon becomes an instant meme as City struggles through another challenging season.

01:24:50 - NBA & NHL Updates

Round-up of basketball and hockey action, including standout performances and playoff implications.

01:26:08 - Oasis Reunion in Crisis

Liam Gallagher's voice problems threaten the reunion tour. Discussion of whether the band can survive without Liam's vocals and Noel's brilliance.

01:29:18 - Music Recommendations

The hosts share their latest musical discoveries, from classic rock to contemporary artists making waves internationally.

01:34:24 - Vegetarian Beef Wellington

Jack's bemusement at a restaurant advertisement for "vegetarian beef Wellington"—perhaps a bit too soon after recent cultural controversies.

01:35:10 - Closing & Next Week's Preview

Sign-off with promises of more Trump administration coverage, US job figures, corporate layoffs, and the Democrats' failure to deliver on "jobs, jobs, jobs."

• Royal family crisis management
• Copyright in the AI age
• Australian patriotism and immigration
• Unintended consequences of prohibition policies
• Political authenticity vs. manufactured backstories
• Sport as cultural common ground

Two Jacks returns next week for Episode 133 with deep dives into Trump's White House, US economic indicators, and more global affairs analysis.

The Conditional Release Program - Live from Skepticon 2025! Well, almost. We did a re-record. We were limited to an hour and we had some issues getting the audio file right. So we just did the script again!

You won't hear the riotous laugher and rapturous applause from the audience but if you make believe you might just hear us being funny and getting a reaction.

Skepticon was a lot of fun - next year it will be in Sydney and any folks that want to check out the Skeptics should head over to https://www.skeptics.com.au/ and go meet some likeminded folks!

In this episode we look at the Ozenkadnook Tiger, Joel's cooked upbringing and the miracles of drinking piss. But we also revisit the important condition known as ME/CFS which has so far been terribly mismanaged by conventional medicine. Sometimes they get it wrong too.

Hope you enjoy this one as much as we enjoyed crafting it. Normal programming to resume in full soon - good things ahead :-)

Just FYI there is no @thetwojacks account on 'social media' - well, not that I know of. How good is AI! We will surely be replaced. Soon. Definitely worth the water usage.

• "Diplomacy, Deadlines & Drama: The Two Jacks #131"
• "Cargo Plane Crashes, Canberra Intrigues: The Two Jacks #131"
• "Political Punchlines and Parliamentary Plots — Two Jacks Podcast"
• "Mineral Deals & Media Moments: Episode 131"

In this episode, The Two Jacks break down a tumultuous week in global politics, aviation, and Australian parliamentary affairs. Highlights include a fatal cargo plane crash at Hong Kong airport, Prime Minister Albanese’s high-stakes visit to Washington, DC, and the shifting sands of party leadership in Canberra. Lively debate, incisive commentary, and recurring humor fill an hour packed with analysis—from the fate of Prince Andrew to the fallout of Brittany Higgins’ legal battles.

TimestampTopic/Segment

00:01Greetings; episode intro and context00:16Hong Kong airport cargo plane crash — causes, casualties, aftermath01:32Anthony Albanese, Trump, and Australia’s US delegation — diplomatic exchanges04:32US-Australia $8.5B critical minerals framework agreement, Waggerup & Arafura09:27Coalition criticism: Kevin Rudd’s role, embarrassment, media moments12:14Internal Liberal Party analysis—Paterson, Taylor, Lay, women’s vote, future18:41Barnaby Joyce’s future: One Nation rumors, role of minor parties25:25Expansion of the House of Representatives — numbers, constitutional effects33:15Senate comparisons: Australia vs US, anecdotes about Ricky Muir44:42Higgins-Lehrmann-Reynolds fallout: legal actions, media fatigue53:24Australia in global happiness rankings, comparison to Scandinavian countries58:30Closing remarks and preview for next episode

• Subscribe, rate, and review on your podcast platform of choice.
• Send feedback or questions via the show's website or email.
• Follow @TheTwoJacks on social media for updates and more content.

What's for dinner? AI slop shownotes! Sorry for the delay in uploading the episode. Life is coming at me HARD AND FAST. All the proposed titles were shit so I went with this one. The others are in the slop pile!

Enjoy!

Welcome back to Two Jacks, episode 130, with Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack. This episode covers a wide range of timely political and global issues, with the usual mix of keen analysis and witty commentary.

• Australian Prime Minister's Leave and US Rare Minerals Deal: The PM is on leave ahead of a notable meeting with President Trump in Washington, discussing a rare minerals trade deal to boost Australia-US relations amid China tensions.
• Polling on AUKUS Support: Discussion on recent polling showing declining Australian support for the AUKUS alliance, attributed to mixed feelings about the Trump administration.
• Superannuation Tax Policy Backdown: Analysis of Treasurer Jim Chalmers' policy retreat on superannuation taxation for balances over $10 million, the political fallout, and implications for affected Australians.
• Senator Lydia Thorpe AFP Investigation: Coverage of Lydia Thorpe's controversial speech calling for parliament to be burned down, leading to an AFP probe and censure motions, with commentary on political theatrics.
• Gaza Peace Deal and Middle East Geopolitics: The multi-stage peace process including hostage-for-prisoner exchanges, disarmament challenges, regional powers' roles, and the strategic shift in Middle East alignments.
• Nobel Peace Prize and Donald Trump: Reflecting on Trump's recent peace efforts and lap of honour, juxtaposed with the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize to Maria Corina Machado.
• US-China Soybean Trade and US Farm Bailout: The collapse of US soybean exports to China and the Argentine bailout, and their impact on American farmers and politics.
• Lawfare and Political Investigations: Updates on legal cases involving James Comey and Letitia James, touching on the politicization of investigations.
• Male Circumcision and RFK Jr's Autism Claim: Debunking claims related to circumcision and autism, highlighting misinformation spread by RFK Jr.
• Tory Party Leadership and UK Politics: Thoughts on new Tory leader Babcock, political instability in France, and Britain’s prime ministerial history in polls.
• Miscellaneous Topics: Lifestyle trends like youth reviving old technology, a documentary recommendation on John Candy, and Australian sports including the Women's ODI Cricket World Cup and AFL trade week.

• Insightful takes on the high-stakes geopolitical shifts involving the US, China, Middle East, and Australia.
• Candid political analysis of Australian domestic policy battles on superannuation.
• A balanced view on political spectacle versus substance in issues like the AFP probe into Lydia Thorpe.
• Commentary on the complexity behind the Gaza peace deal and the roles of regional players.
• Humorous moments including commentary on Boris Johnson’s antics and John Candy documentary reflections.

• Get professional financial advice on superannuation, especially if nearing retirement.
• Consider watching the John Candy documentary "I Like Me" on Amazon Prime.
• Keep an eye on ongoing developments in trade politics and international diplomacy.

Listeners are encouraged to drop comments, questions, and suggestions for future topics. The hosts thank the audience for their continued support and sign off until next week.

1. "Rare Minerals, AUKUS Woes & Gaza Peace: Two Jacks Episode 130"
2. "Superannuation Shakeup and Middle East Moves with Two Jacks"
3. "Politics, Peace, and Protest: The Latest with Two Jacks"
4. "From Canberra to Sharm El Sheikh: Two Jacks on the Global Stage"
5. "Tax Battles, Hostage Deals & Political Spectacle – Two Jacks 130"
6. "Australia, Trump, and Turmoil: The Two Jacks 130 Deep Dive"
7. "Power Plays in Politics and Peace – Two Jacks Legendary 130"

While we are busy preparing for Skepticon here's a rerun from the good old days when life was simpler and all we had to worry about was a bit of a pandemic. Here's the Skepticon blurb:

Attention Melbournians - SKEPTICON IS ON THIS WEEKEND!

Yes folks we are finally doing a live podcast. Time to crack out the snake oil dispenser and drink a pint of piss - it's time to make Melbourne healthy again. Will it work? Probably not. But there will be:

Merch giveways

CBCo vouchers

A vaguely funny podcast recording which may or may not actually make the main feed

Visual gags (hopefully) that won't be funny on the audio (if you even get to hear it)

Bent spoons

We will be on at 1.45pm Saturday after the lunch break.

If you are feeling particularly skeptical, get a weekend ticket and come watch some other (inferior) sessions. Come sit next to me! I'll be the bald guy sitting with all my mates (alone).

Otherwise day tickets are on sale and for people who can't make it (or want to save a few bucks) - a Zoom ticket is also available.

There's also a dinner Saturday night - come eat with us!

Skepticon is a not for profit in the genuine sense - it costs nerds money to make it happen at all. So tickets go to a good cause - keeping this thing going.

And hey, you might get some free beer vouchers and exclusive limited edition merch!

Tickets are available here: https://skepticon.org.au/tickets/

Hope to meet some of you fine folks on the day.

And here's the podcast blurb!

Got vaccinated? That's bad. You better get that sorted. How about some IV bleach? 

Feeling a bit too clean and slightly under the weather? Eat some mud. 

Grifters gonna grift and honestly they'll go to wild lengths to get your money. This episode we look at some incredibly awful ways people are attempting to remove the vaccine, to save their souls from the devil jab. It's not good. 

Merry Bleachmas!

• Personal catch-up between the hosts
• Hong Kong Jack celebrates a major birthday in Macau with surprise family visit
• Discussion of Hong Kong-Macau travel via new bridge/tunnel (1 hour 20 minutes door-to-door)

Key Points:

• Polling disaster: Coalition at 27% approval rating, Labor leads 58-42 two-party preferred
• Electoral wipeout: Liberal Party holds minimal metropolitan seats across major cities
• Party structure collapse: Lack of grassroots organization compared to historical ALP branches
• Demographic breakdown: Libs losing women, young people, multicultural communities (except 65+ voters)
• Leadership pressure: Susan Ley facing potential challenge, comparisons to "Brendan Nelson months"
• Policy tensions: Net zero commitments causing internal fractures

Notable Quote: Troy Bramston - "There is no guarantee the Liberal Party will survive"

Key Points:

• National Climate Risk Assessment Report findings:
• 400% increase in heat-related mortality in Sydney
• 2.7 million work days lost by 2061 due to heatwaves
• $600 billion property value losses by 2050
• $40 billion annual natural disaster costs
• Public opinion: 77% of Australians want government climate action
• Political implications: Andrew Hastie threatens to quit front bench over net zero policy
• International context: UK Tories' experience with climate policy costs

Key Points:

• Philip Davis survives challenge from Greg Mirabella for Liberal Party State Director
• Discussion of Labor government vulnerabilities despite Liberal Party dysfunction
• Analysis of "machete bins" controversy and opposition messaging failures

Key Points:

• Tyler Robertson (22) charged with Kirk's murder
• Discussion of political discourse breakdown in America
• Social media radicalization of young men
• Criticism of premature political speculation (Barry Cassidy example)

• ICE raid on 300 South Korean workers in Georgia battery facility
• Only one Korean worker chose to stay after offered return
• Implications for US foreign investment attractiveness

Major Topics:

• Tommy Robinson Rally: 100,000+ protesters in London
• Immigration tensions: 50,000 asylum seekers annually
• Starmer's crisis: Peter Mandelson appointment controversy (Jeffrey Epstein connections)
• Leadership challenges: Calls for Starmer's resignation from both left and right
• Conservative Party collapse: Danny Kruger defects to Reform UK

• Sébastien Le Corneau named new PM after confidence vote
• Budget crisis and spending control issues

• Netanyahu takes responsibility for Al-Yudid airbase incident
• Discussion of Arab neighbors' role in regional solutions
• Qatari investment commitments to US ($3.3 trillion over decade)

• Discussion of Melbourne Cup preparation and "pagan fertility festival" atmosphere

• Raiders vs Broncos "golden point" thriller described as exceptional rugby league
• Melbourne, Sharks, Panthers, and Brisbane assessment for finals

• Preliminary Finals Preview:
• Hawthorn vs Geelong (favor Geelong by 20 points)
• Collingwood vs Brisbane (favor Collingwood)
• Praise for Josh Weddle (Hawthorn) and Jai Newcombe's finals performances

H.L. Mencken Epitaph: "If after I depart this vale, you ever remember me and have thought to please my ghost, forgive some sinner and wink your eye at some homely girl"

Spike Milligan Epitaph: "See, I told you I wasn't well"

1. "Coalition Collapse: The Liberal Party's Existential Crisis"
2. "From Polls to Protest: Democracy Under Pressure"
3. "The Unraveling: Political Upheaval Across Three Continents"
4. "27% and Falling: When Political Parties Face Extinction"
5. "Net Zero, Net Loss: Climate Politics Reshaping the Right"

• Twitter: @JacktheInsider
• Email: [email protected]

Episode Duration: 1 hour 22 minutes

These AI slop shownotes are very funny. Third and final part of the series. Enjoy!

PS - apologies for the delay on this release. It's still well worth the listen. I wanted to give it a proper edit but life is on ultra hard mode at the moment so it's going up in all its unvarnished glory!

Joel Hill welcomes listeners to the Condition Release Program, substituting for the usual "Jackless" format by interviewing Dave about his weekend attending the controversial "March for Australia" rally in Sydney. The episode explores ground-level observations, organiser controversies, the interplay of far-right and conspiracist groups, and reflections on the fractured dynamics between organisers, attendees, and broader communities. The conversation highlights the worrying normalisation of Nazi participation in Australian street movements and the lack of timely mainstream media coverage or understanding.

Character & Alias Mapping

Alias/Nickname Real Name or Role Brief Description

Joel Hill Joel Hill Host

Dave Dave Guest/interviewee and rally attendee

Beck/Beck Freedom Likely Rebecca (rally organiser) Central organiser, alleged to enable Nazis

Monica Monica Smith Flip-flopping public figure

Jesse Jesse Stewart, son of Tim Delivered rally banner

Cossack Unspecified Figure in rally controversies

NSN National Socialist Network Australian neo-Nazi group

Guru Unspecified (conspiracist influencer) Referenced by attendees

MGG Michael Gray-Grope Noted attendee, post-heart attack

Dr. Nino ("Dr. Dan") Video/clip maker Influencer in the reporting scene

Bozy/Hoodie/Onyx/Mark Mack Various minor far-right figures Referenced as speakers or organisers

Episode 126 delivers comprehensive analysis of Australian and international news, politics, and sport. The hosts tackle everything from sovereign citizen movements and government policy disasters to AFL finals and international political chaos, maintaining their trademark blend of serious analysis and wry humor.

• NRL Trainers on Field: Criticism of excessive trainer presence during games, particularly Alfie Langer's extended field time with Broncos and Queensland Origin teams
• Media Language Issues: Channel 9's problematic "Exonerated Child Murderer Folbigg" banner - classic oxymoron
• International Travel: Amusing encounter with Collingwood supporters in the Sahara Desert, Libya (2010)
• Bike Lane Safety: Melbourne bike lanes creating pedestrian hazards, particularly for country visitors unfamiliar with urban cycling infrastructure
• AFLW vs Netball: Questions about potential impact of women's AFL on traditional netball participation and viewership

• Community Support: Concerns about significant local support for Paul Punker and Desi Freeman in high country communities
• Hidden Numbers: Unexpected prevalence of sovereign citizen ideology among seemingly ordinary citizens

• Geographic Clusters: Identified hotspots including Gladstone/WA Wheatbelt, Albury-Wodonga, Northern Rivers, SW Queensland
• Police Risk: Increased threat assessment protocols required for warrant services
• Historical Context: Long-standing anti-establishment culture in remote eastern Victoria dating to 1970s
• Freeman Manhunt: Police belief in community assistance for Desi Freeman; rugged Buckland Valley terrain complicating search

• Sentence: Life imprisonment with 33-year non-parole period (eligible 2056)
• Judge's Reasoning: Justice Chris Beale noted extensive premeditation required for crime
• Solitary Confinement: 22 hours daily due to case publicity
• Community Impact: Butchers no longer selling mushroom-based products; "Beef Wellington" renamed "Beef en Croute"

• Appeal Failure: Federal Court unimpressed with Lehrmann's challenge
• Fiona Brown: Only figure emerging with reputation intact despite career destruction
• Compensation Disparity: Call for equal treatment compared to Brittany Higgins settlement

• ABC Interview Controversy: Claims about Labor's immigration strategy targeting Indian community votes
• Liberal Response: Julie Bishop apologized on Price's behalf; Price refused personal apology
• Business Backlash: Harris Park businesses refusing Liberal engagement until unconditional Price apology
• Electoral Strategy: Cos Samaras noted elections won/lost in NSW/Victoria, not through minority group alienation

• Market Indicators: Small country town (25,000) now has five tobacconists - unprecedented
• Policy Failure: Excise increases creating massive black market, including Iraqi cigarette factories serving Australian market
• Price Comparison: Legal cigarettes $55-60 per pack vs $120 for carton of 10 packs illegally
• Law Enforcement: Hundreds of millions spent on policing sophisticated black markets
• Historical Parallel: Ignoring 20th century prohibition lessons from alcohol and betting
• Respectability of Law-breaking: Creating acceptance of illegal activity, similar to SP bookmaking era

• Joint Failure: Bipartisan decision ignoring harm reduction evidence
• Unregulated Danger: Current black market vapes potentially more dangerous than regulated alternatives

• Petition Numbers: 117,000+ signatures on Change.org for neo-Nazi leader deportation
• Legal Challenges: New Zealand citizenship complications; military service precedent (Bertie Kidd case)
• Current Charges: Violent disorder, assault by kicking, discharge missile, police intimidation

• Birthday Book Evidence: House Oversight Committee confirms Trump birthday message to Epstein
• White House Response: Claims of forgery; potential legal battle with Wall Street Journal
• Economic Concerns: US jobs market weakened (22,000 jobs vs expected higher), unemployment 4.2% to 4.3%
• Tariff Impact: Goldman Sachs reports 86% absorbed by importers, unsustainable long-term
• John Deere Warning: Agricultural equipment manufacturer's poor results concerning for rural Trump base

• Confidence Vote: PM François Bayrou lost 364-194, far-right and far-left coalition
• Spending Cuts: Proposed welfare caps and public holiday removal triggered downfall
• Fiscal Crisis: 5.8% GDP deficit, 114% debt-to-GDP ratio
• Political Paralysis: No major party willing to make necessary hard economic decisions

• The Boris Files: Leaked data reveals post-PM profiteering from office connections
• Greensill Echoes: Similarities to David Cameron lobbying scandal
• Labour Leadership: Keir Starmer faces deputy leadership election, working-class voters moving to Reform
• Polling: Reform UK leading but insufficient for parliamentary majority
• Immigration Policy: Dublin Agreement unavailable post-Brexit; family reunion advantages drawing Channel crossings

• Cologne Agreement: All parties except AfD pledge only positive migration discourse in local elections
• Strategic Error: Likely to entrench support for far-right AfD by dismissing legitimate concerns

• Bob Carr & Dan Andrews: Attending 80th anniversary of Japanese defeat in China
• Photo Opportunities: Andrews pictured with Kim Jong-un and Vladimir Putin
• Commercial Motivations: Unnamed political friend claims Andrews "making millions" from China connections
• Influence Trading: Xi Jinping meetings providing significant business leverage

• Marina Hyde Quote: "The path to peace still goes through politicians with power. Many of them are still terrible people. They will still have to have unpleasant and even toxic conversations in which horse trading and moral compromise are inevitable"
• UN Role: Defense of UN as necessary forum for engaging "terrible people" while criticizing corrupt agencies

• Matchups: Raiders v Broncos (Canberra), Storm v Bulldogs (Melbourne), Warriors v Panthers (Auckland), Sharks v Roosters (Shark Park)
• Venue Criticism: Shark Park described as "disaster" with rat problems, unfit for purpose
• Form Analysis: Storm struggling after losses to Roosters and Broncos; Raiders in strong form

• Geelong Dominance: Cats looking "head and shoulders" above competition
• Umpiring Controversy: AFL acknowledged mistake in Geelong v Brisbane Lions match; three-goal turnaround from questionable decisions
• Upcoming Matches: Hawks v Crows, Suns v Lions at Gabba
• Jai Newcombe: Hawks midfielder top-rated in all three finals appearances
• Charlie Curnow: Carlton star's ordinary finals performances raising trade speculation

• Wallabies Form: Positive signs despite slow starts; exciting brand attracting attention
• Lions Tour Revenue: Significant funds from upcoming British & Irish Lions tour
• Scheduling Issues: Argentina match poorly timed at 2pm North Queensland

• Anne Althaus Insight: Children funny because not yet socialized, willing to take risks
• Comparison: Ricky Gervais model of saying "unsayable" things
• New Yorker: Magazine quality decline noted, but cartoons "back in form"

• Stewart Lee: Ricky Gervais' favorite comedian; unconventional style
• Queen/Paddington Joke: Stewart Lee's material about marmalade sandwiches and Prince Andrew

• The Free Press Sale: Bari Weiss publication acquired by Paramount/CBS for $100-200 million
• Editorial Control: Weiss reportedly getting "free reign" over CBS political coverage
• Alternative Media Success: Examples include Claire Lehmann's Quillette, Megyn Kelly's expansion
• Democratization Concerns: Tendency toward sensationalism in independent media

• Jack the Insider: X/Twitter DMs @JacktheInsider
• Hong Kong Jack: hongkongchat.substack.com
• Email: [email protected]