Ai slop as usual for shownotes. If HKJ pays me some of those HKDs then I'll maybe make an effort. Until then, eat your robot kibble and enjoy the show!
Also: there are mentions of construction noise in this episode and longtime listeners will remember that early episodes were plagued with banging and carrying on. Adobe podcast managed to filter this out very effectively and it just sounds a bit like they are moaning about nothing. But it was probably awful at the time.
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Australia Day tensions at home and political shocks abroad drive this packed episode of The Two Jacks. Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack unpack the Liberal–National implosion, leadership manoeuvring, hate‑speech laws and neo‑Nazi “martyrs” springing from Australia Day rallies and a near‑catastrophic device in Perth. They then cross to the US for the fallout from the ICE killing of Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretty, Kristi Noem’s precarious future, Trump’s political instincts, and Mark Carney’s Davos warning that we now live in a world with “no rules.” Along the way they dissect Brexit’s economic hangover, EU over‑regulation, India’s Republic Day contrast with Australia’s low‑key national day, and finish with sport: Premier League title nerves, Australian Open heat controversies, bushfires, and a final detour through film censorship trivia in Ireland.
00:00 – Theme and intro
00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks; Joel (Jack the Insider) in Australia and Hong Kong Jack set the scene for episode 142, recorded 27 January, the day after Australia Day.
Australian politics and the Liberal–National implosion
00:40 – Coalition “no more”: the decoupling of Liberals and Nationals, and whether Anthony Albanese is the Stephen Bradbury of Australian politics or a quiet tactician.
01:10 – How Labor’s racial vilification moves and 18C history boxed the opposition in; Susan Ley’s failed emergency‑sitting gambit on antisemitism laws.
02:00 – Firearms law changes and new powers to ban hate groups like Hizb ut‑Tahrir and the National Socialist Network, and the role of ASIO referrals and ministerial discretion.
03:10 – Canavan’s “slippery slope” fears about bans being turned on mainstream groups, and what that reveals about the Nationals’ hunger for anti‑immigration rhetoric under pressure from One Nation and Pauline Hanson.
Centre‑right parties in a squeeze
04:00 – The Nationals as the “five‑percenters” who pull the coalition’s agenda with a small vote share; listener Bassman calls them the “un‑Nationals.”
05:00 – Global “tough times” for centre‑right parties: the pincer between moving to the centre (and leaving a vacuum for far‑right populists) or moving right and losing the middle.
05:40 – Hong Kong Jack’s argument for broad churches: keeping everyone from sensible One Nation types to inner‑city wets under one tent, as Labor did with its far‑left “fruit loops” in the 1980s.
07:00 – Decline of small‑l liberals inside the Liberal Party, the thinning ranks of progressive conservatives, and the enduring “sprinkling of nuts” on the hard right.
Leadership spills and who’s next
07:20 – Susan Ley’s lonely press conferences, Ted O’Brien’s silence, and the air of inevitability about a leadership spill before or by budget time.
08:20 – Why the leadership needs “strength at the top”: the Gareth Evans line to Hawke – “the dogs are pissing on your swag” – as a metaphor for knowing when to go.
09:20 – Conversation about Angus Taylor, Andrew Hastie, Ted O’Brien and even Tim Wilson as possible leaders, and why the wrong timing can make almost anyone opposition leader.
10:40 – History lesson: unlikely leaders who flourished, from Henry Bolte in Victoria to Albanese, once dismissed by his own colleagues as a long shot.
11:40 – Albanese’s long apprenticeship: learning from Howard’s cautious style and the Rudd–Gillard chaos, and his instinct for the national mood.
Listener mail: Nationals, Barnaby and “public bar” politicians
13:00 – Listener Lawrence compares One Nation to Britain’s Reform Party; asks if Barnaby Joyce’s baggage (drought envoy rorts, “Watergate,” drunken footpath photo) undermines his retail skills.
14:20 – Debating whether Barnaby ever was the “best retail politician” in the country; why he works brilliantly in rural and regional pubs but is “poison in the cities.”
16:10 – The “public bar” politician ideal: Barnaby as hail‑fellow‑well‑met who genuinely likes the people he’s talking to, contrasted with Whitlam and Fraser looking awkward in 1970s pub photo ops.
17:20 – John Howard scrounging a fiver to shout a round, Barry Jones dying in Warrnambool pubs, and why Bob Hawke and Tony Abbott always looked at home with a schooner.
Australia Day, antisemitism and street violence
18:00 – Australia Day wrap: The Australian newspaper’s “social cohesion crisis” framing after antisemitism, violence and extremist rhetoric.
19:10 – Perth’s rudimentary explosive device: ball bearings and screws around a liquid in a glass “coffee cup” thrown into an Invasion Day crowd at Forrest Place; police clear the area quickly.
21:00 – Melbourne: small March for Australia turnout, scuffles between their supporters and Invasion Day marchers, arrests likely to follow.
22:10 – Sydney: March for Australia rally of around 2,000 ending at Moore Park, open mic session, and the selection of a man wearing a Celtic cross shirt who launches into a vile antisemitic rant.
23:20 – His subsequent arrest in Darlinghurst and the Section 93Z charge (publicly threatening or inciting violence on racial or religious grounds), with possible three‑year jail term and $11,000 fine.
24:40 – Why the speech appears to meet the elements of the offence, and how such defendants are quickly turned into martyrs and crowdfunding heroes by the extreme right.
26:10 – The psychology of self‑styled martyrs seeking notoriety and donations; parallels with “Free Joel Davis” signs after threats to MP Allegra Spender.
Australia Day vs India’s Republic Day
27:20 – Australia Day clashing with India’s Republic Day: Joel only just realises the overlap; Jack has known for years.
28:00 – History recap: Australia Day as a 1930s invention, not a national holiday until Keating’s government in 1995; its big cultural take‑off in the 1988 Bicentennial year.
29:10 – India’s enormous Republic Day parade: 10,000+ guests, missiles and tanks on show, EU leaders in attendance, congratulations from President Trump and President Xi – easily out‑shining Australia’s low‑key day.
30:00 – Why big military parades feel culturally wrong in Australia; the discomfort with tanks and squeaky‑wheeled machinery rolling down main streets.
30:30 – The 26 January date debate: protests by Invasion Day marchers vs “flag shaggers,” plateauing protest numbers, and the sense that for most Australians it’s just another day off.
31:20 – Arguments for a different nation‑building day (maybe early January for a built‑in long weekend), and the need for a better way to celebrate Australia’s achievements without performative patriotism.
32:40 – Local citizenship ceremonies, Australia Day ambassadors and quiet country‑town rituals that still work well in spite of the culture war.
Minneapolis outrage, ICE shootings and US politics
34:20 – Turning to the United States: the shooting of ICU nurse Alex Pretty by ICE agents in Minneapolis and the shock it has injected into US domestic politics.
34:50 – Video evidence vs official narrative: Pretty appears to be disarmed before being shot; the administration initially claiming he was planning a massacre of ICE agents.
35:40 – Trump’s early blame of Democrat officials and policies, then a noticeable shift as outrage spreads more broadly across the political spectrum and the Insurrection Act chatter cools.
36:20 – Tom Homan’s deployment to Minneapolis, the demotion of Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino, and reports that Homan will now report directly to President Trump rather than Kristi Noem.
37:10 – Internal GOP friction: suggestions Noem relished confrontation, while Homan did not; speculation Noem may be the first cabinet‑level casualty.
38:00 – Use of children as bait in immigration operations, American citizens detained, and two civilians shot dead by ICE; discussion of likely multi‑million‑dollar compensation exposure.
39:00 – Allegations of bribery and “missing 50 large,” the checkered backgrounds of some ICE agents and rumours about extremist links and failed cops finding a home in ICE.
40:00 – A snap YouGov poll: 46% of respondents wanting ICE disbanded, 41% opposed, and how this feeds the narrative that Noem will be thrown under the bus.
Sanctuary cities, federal power and Pam Bondi’s letter
41:10 – Trump’s boastful but error‑strewn talk on Article 5 of the NATO treaty, and his correction that still belittled allies’ sacrifices in Afghanistan.
41:40 – Casualties by nation: US 2,461, then significant losses from the UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Australia, Poland, Spain and others – disproving Trump’s “America alone” framing.
42:30 – Sanctuary cities vs federal supremacy: recalling the 2012 Arizona case where the Supreme Court confirmed immigration enforcement as a federal responsibility, and how that collides with sanctuary policies.
43:10 – Pam Bondi’s letter to Minnesota’s governor after the second ICE killing: reported threat to pull ICE agents in exchange for electoral records, and the ominous implications of such demands.
Greenland, Davos and market games
44:00 – Trump’s Greenland obsession revisited: from bluster at Davos about tariffs on European allies to a supposed “deal” that no‑one, including the Danes, can define.
44:40 – How tariff threats knocked markets down, then his Davos announcement walked them back and sent markets up; Ted Cruz warning Trump that crashing 401(k)s and high inflation would make the midterms a bloodbath.
45:40 – Japan and the US bond market: a brief panic in Japanese bonds, a Danish super fund’s sale of US Treasuries, and the longer‑term vulnerability given that Japan, China and the EU hold so much US debt.
46:30 – Trump’s relentless pressure on the Fed for lower rates in an inflationary environment, and the comparison with Erdogan’s disastrous low‑rate, high‑inflation experiment in Turkey.
Davos speeches and a world with no rules
47:10 – Mark Carney’s standout Davos speech: we now live in a geopolitical environment with “no rules,” and the post‑WWII rules‑based order has largely broken down.
47:50 – Carney’s planned March visit to Australia and likely address to a joint sitting of Parliament, plus his reputation as a sharp, articulate central banker.
48:20 – Hong Kong Jack’s scepticism about “international law” as more fiction than practice; non‑Western powers paying lip service while ignoring it in reality.
49:00 – The German Chancellor’s more consequential Davos speech on EU failures, competitiveness, and the need to reinvent Europe, backed in by Italian PM Giorgia Meloni.
49:40 – The “Sir Humphrey” view of the EU: you can only reform Brussels from the inside, not from outside as Brexit Britain is discovering.
Brexit’s economic hit
50:10 – Chancellor Mertz’s critique of EU over‑regulation and the “world champions at regulation” line; the EU as an anti‑competitive behemoth that lost its free‑trade roots.
50:50 – Why countries like Spain struggle alone but “pack a punch” within the EU’s collective GDP; Brexit as a decision to leave the world’s biggest trading bloc.
51:20 – UK Office for Budget Responsibility analysis: since the 2016 referendum, estimated UK GDP per capita by 2025 is 6–8% lower than it would have been, with investment 12–18% lower and employment 3–4% lower than the “remain” counterfactual.
52:10 – How these losses emerged slowly, then accumulated as uncertainty persisted, trade barriers rose and firms diverted resources away from productive activity.
52:40 – Jack challenges the counterfactual: notes that actual UK GDP growth is only a couple of points below EU averages and doubts that UK governments would have outperformed Europe even without Brexit.
53:20 – Joel’s rejoinder that the OBR work is widely accepted and that Brexit has created profound long‑term impacts on Britain’s economy over the next 5–10 years.
Sport: cricket, Premier League and Australian Open heat
55:20 – Australian cricket’s depth: promising leg‑spinners and other talent juggling Shield cricket with gigs in the Caribbean Premier League, Pakistan Super League and more.
55:50 – Premier League title race: Arsenal’s lead cut from seven to four points after a 3–2 loss to an invigorated Manchester United that also beat City in the derby.
56:30 – The “sugar hit” of a new coach at United, reverting to a more traditional style and the question of how long the bounce will last.
57:10 – Australian Open “Sinner controversy”: oppressive heat, the heat index rules for closing the roof, Jannik Sinner cooked at one set all before a pause, roof closure and air‑conditioning – and then a comfortable Sinner win.
58:00 – Accusations about coach Darren Cahill lobbying tournament boss Craig Tiley, and why the footage doesn’t really support conspiracy theories.
58:30 – Djokovic’s soft run after a walkover, the emergence of 19‑year‑old American Tien with Michael Chang in his box, and Chang’s devout‑Christian clay‑court glory at Roland Garros.
59:20 – Heatwave conditions in southern Australia, fires in Victoria and the Otways/Jellibrand region, and a shout‑out to firefighters and residents under threat.
Final odds and ends
01:00:20 – Closing thoughts on Australia’s weather extremes, hoping for a wind change and some respite for the fireys.
01:00:50 – Jack’s trivia nugget: Casablanca was once banned in Ireland for not being “sufficiently neutral” and not kind enough to the Nazis, segueing to bans on Lady Chatterley’s Lover and Australian censorship history.
01:02:00 – Sign‑off from Joel (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack, promising to track the Perth bombing case, hate‑speech prosecutions, Canberra leadership moves and the unfolding Minneapolis/ICE scandal in future episodes.
