The Conditional Release Program podcast

July 27, 2026 The Two Jacks - Episode 165 - From Crimea to Canberra: Putin Cornered, One Nation Rising, and an Economy Out of Ideas

This weeks ai slop is served up by DeepSeek v4 Pro. I tried to use Kimi but it got stuck generating the notes. So now you get this. Could be worse.

Episode Summary

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack return for a wide-ranging conversation that spans the turbulent state of Australian politics and the precarious state of global affairs. The episode opens with striking Redbridge polling data suggesting One Nation could pick up as many as 19 seats in the upcoming Victorian state election -- a result that would leave neither major party able to form government in its own right. The Jacks explore the mechanics of minority government, the prospect of a marriage of convenience between the Liberals and One Nation, and whether Labor voters in protest mode could deliver One Nation unexpected inroads into heartland seats.

The domestic focus then shifts to the Australian economy. Drawing on former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty's recent analysis, the hosts dissect a bureaucracy more concerned with treating symptoms than causes, lamenting squandered billions on unused quarantine centres, infrastructure costs among the highest in the world, and a housing crisis driven by a failure to train enough workers. The conversation turns to political courage -- or the lack of it -- comparing today's risk-averse governing class with the Hawke-Keating reform era, when fringe benefits tax was meant to kill the long lunch but somehow did not.

A spirited defence of Emerge Australia -- an advocacy group training GPs to diagnose and treat myalgic encephalomyelitis (chronic fatigue syndrome) -- highlights the government's decision to cut a mere $400,000 in funding, a move Jack the Insider brands disgraceful for an organisation serving an estimated 250,000 Australians. Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme reform also gets a hearing, with pharmaceutical companies increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials.

Internationally, the Jacks confront the escalating dangers of the Russia-Ukraine war. With Ukraine making Crimea increasingly uninhabitable and Vladimir Putin backed into a corner, the prospect of an attack on a NATO or NATO-aligned state looms. The conversation covers Russia's cancelled bond sale, the shifting power dynamic between Putin and Xi Jinping, and thousands of Russian passports arriving in Moldova -- a familiar prelude to intervention. On Iran, the hosts reflect on the Trump administration's military strikes, oil climbing past USD 100 a barrel, and the political consequences for the upcoming US midterm elections.

The episode closes with sport: the FIFA World Cup (and Argentina's remarkable ability to unify the football world in mutual disdain), the AFL's handling of the Nicky Winmar domestic violence case and questions of consistency, the end of the Bazball era in English Test cricket, a warm tribute to the late Sir Garfield Sobers, and rugby union's new Nations Championship format.

Timestamped Highlights

(All timestamps adjusted +25 seconds to account for theme music.)

00:00:26 -- Introduction and Banter Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack open the show trading observations on air conditioning, long lunches, and the perils of sitting directly beneath the vent.

00:01:32 -- One Nation's Victorian Polling Surge Redbridge polling data indicates One Nation could win as many as 19 seats in the Victorian state election. In an 88-seat legislature, that would make a majority for either major party almost impossible.

00:02:52 -- Minority Government Mechanics Hong Kong Jack explains the constitutional pathway: if no party wins a majority, the sitting Premier gets the first conversation with the Governor and may be recommissioned to form government.

00:04:20 -- A Three-Cornered Contest Jack the Insider argues the Allan government is at the end of the road, but the Liberal alternative inspires little confidence. One Nation may poll well in Labor heartland seats as protest voters look for an outlet that is not the Liberal Party.

00:06:33 -- The Polling vs. the Pencil Hong Kong Jack predicts One Nation's polling numbers will soften once voters are alone in the booth with an HB pencil hovering over the ballot paper.

00:08:32 -- Commonwealth Games Land in Glasgow The hosts acknowledge the Commonwealth Games have begun -- in Glasgow, not Victoria. The opening ceremony featured King Charles and Queen Camilla emerging from a Doctor Who TARDIS.

00:10:50 -- Pauline Hanson and the Tommy Robinson Interview The Jacks dissect Hanson's decision to interview the controversial British figure, with Hong Kong Jack arguing the motivation is straightforward: publicity, good or bad.

00:12:12 -- Factions Within One Nation Barnaby Joyce's visible discomfort with the Robinson interview signals internal tensions. Jack the Insider warns One Nation risks veering further towards the "lunar right."

00:13:30 -- Two Australias: The Great Dog Divide A detour into the changing culture of pet ownership. Jack the Insider contrasts the utilitarian farm dogs of his Reservoir childhood with the multi-billion-dollar industry of designer dog beds, pushchairs, and booties.

00:15:59 -- Bill Kelty's Economic Diagnosis Former ACTU Secretary Bill Kelty delivers a blunt assessment: Australian governments have spent decades treating symptoms rather than causes -- quarantine centres never used, infrastructure costs at world-record levels, a housing crisis born of under-investment in skills.

00:17:59 -- The Courage Deficit Hong Kong Jack argues the current government, like its recent predecessors, lacks political boldness. The Prime Minister's Labor conference speech seemed "spooked by One Nation" rather than offering a growth narrative.

00:19:22 -- The Keating Comparison Jack the Insider revisits the Hawke-Keating reform era, noting the howls of outrage that greeted early reforms -- including fringe benefits tax, which was meant to "kill lunch" but somehow did not. The difference today: social media amplifies every backlash.

00:23:02 -- Chronic Fatigue Syndrome Funding Cut An urgent segment on the defunding of Emerge Australia, an advocacy group that has trained roughly 10% of the nation's GPs in diagnosing and treating ME/CFS. The cut amounts to approximately $400,000 -- a sum Jack the Insider describes as negligible in public expenditure but catastrophic for the 250,000 Australians living with the condition.

00:26:37 -- The PBS and Australia's Clinical Trial Problem Pharmaceutical companies are increasingly bypassing Australia for clinical trials, leaving patients with rare conditions to raise extraordinary sums for overseas treatment. The Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's pricing structure may require root-and-branch reform, particularly for newly developed drugs.

00:29:50 -- What Should Labor Do About One Nation? Hong Kong Jack's prescription is simple: fix the economy and stop saying silly things. One Nation will wither on the vine if economic growth returns.

00:30:17 -- Derryn Hinch: The Human Headline Remembered The former broadcaster, senator, and Justice Party founder has died aged 82. The Jacks reflect on a complicated legacy -- a man who transformed Melbourne talkback radio and tabloid television, was twice married to Jacki Weaver, and whose profound impact on the media is tempered by a deeply troubling intervention in the justice system.

00:32:00 -- The Glennon Case: When a Headline Cost Children Their Safety Jack the Insider recounts in detail how Hinch's decision to publicly name convicted paedophile priest Michael Glennon during an active trial led to the suspension of proceedings, an eventual overturned conviction, and a four-year window in which Glennon continued operating camps and abusing children -- as many as 20 additional victims.

00:38:14 -- Hinch's Media Legacy Despite the Glennon tragedy, Hong Kong Jack credits Hinch with changing the sound of Melbourne radio. The talkback format he pioneered arguably saved stations like 3AW.

00:40:32 -- Ukraine and the Battle for Crimea The Ukrainians cannot hold Crimea, but they are making it unliveable. Water, electricity, and supplies have been cut. Crimeans are fleeing en masse. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has effectively ceased to exist.

00:42:13 -- Putin Backed Into a Corner Jack the Insider warns that Vladimir Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally. The spectre of an attack on a NATO country -- perhaps a Baltic state -- or on Moldova is real. Putin cannot sue for peace; it would mean the end of him.

00:44:21 -- Russia's Economic Pressure Points Hong Kong Jack notes that Russia cancelled a regular bond sale last week after failing to find buyers. The economic squeeze is mounting. Putin and his deeply unpopular party are now being fused together ahead of elections.

00:47:13 -- Russian Passports Arrive in Moldova Thousands of Russian passports have been shipped to Moldova -- the same playbook used in Crimea and eastern Ukraine before intervention.

00:49:32 -- Iran, the Houthis, and Oil Above USD 100 US strikes on Iran continue. Houthi attacks in the Red Sea have struck oil tankers. The price of crude has pushed past USD 100 a barrel -- a politically dangerous number for Donald Trump four months out from the midterms.

00:50:33 -- The Netanyahu Pitch for Regime Change Jack the Insider recounts the scene from Swan and Haberman's book: Benjamin Netanyahu presenting a case for US-Israeli combined bombing to achieve regime change in Iran. Trump was impressed; Marco Rubio and the CIA director were not.

00:52:56 -- US Midterms: The Democratic Candidate Problem The Democrats' prospects are muddied by candidate issues including the withdrawal of Graham Plattner over sexual assault allegations and the party's persistent inability to select candidates who genuinely connect with the white working class.

00:54:40 -- Tim Waltz, John Kerry, and Authenticity Hong Kong Jack contrasts the Democrats' clumsy attempts to project authenticity -- Tim Waltz hunting, John Kerry windsurfing -- with the reality that Kerry was an ice hockey player who once attended a White House meeting with two black eyes from a congressional game.

00:58:19 -- The Sickness in American Democracy Jack the Insider argues the two-party lock on presidential politics -- achieved partly by keeping third-party candidates off ballots in roughly 30 states -- is profoundly undemocratic. With 40% of voters now registering as independents, millions have no candidate who represents them.

00:59:43 -- Can Trump Disrupt the Midterms? Hong Kong Jack analyses the constitutional limits on presidential interference in state-run elections. Any attempt to use emergency powers would go straight to court.

01:03:43 -- Marine Le Pen: France's Next President? Polling around 67%, Le Pen is the frontrunner for the French presidential election. Her felony conviction for misusing EU funds appears to be no impediment.

01:05:09 -- Andy Burnham's Fast Start as UK Prime Minister The new PM has hit the ground running with popular measures: a GBP 2 bus fare cap across England, 20% business rate cuts for pubs, clubs, and live music venues, and the scrapping of VAT on domestic electricity bills.

01:07:36 -- Britain's Investment Challenge The biggest test for Burnham will be attracting investment. The UK has 11 million working-age citizens on benefits -- a figure now exceeding tax receipts.

01:09:03 -- FIFA World Cup: Argentina Triumphs, Trump Photobombs Argentina are world champions, but not before a petition signed by millions demanded their exclusion from the final. Donald Trump appeared on the podium; the Spanish commemorative photos, the Jacks note, did not include him.

01:11:07 -- The Refereeing and the Expansion The officiating was patchy, but the expanded tournament format was vindicated. Seeing Cape Verde, Australia, New Zealand, and Iran compete gave the event a genuinely global feel.

01:14:23 -- Nicky Winmar, the AFL Hall of Fame, and Domestic Violence The Jacks grapple with the AFL's removal of Winmar from the Hall of Fame following a domestic violence conviction. Jack the Insider questions the consistency: Wayne Carey and Gary Ablett Sr. remain honoured. Hong Kong Jack suggests a suspension rather than permanent expulsion would have been more appropriate, arguing that football cannot be reserved for choirboys.

01:19:06 -- Bazball's End: The McCallum Era Concludes Baz McCallum is out as England's Test coach after 49 Tests: 27 wins, 20 losses. Ten of the first eleven were victories; seven of the last nine were defeats. The hosts debate whether Bazball added to cricket's audience even if it could not sustainably win Test matches.

01:23:20 -- Sir Garfield Sobers: The Greatest of All Time A warm tribute to the late West Indian legend. Jack the Insider recalls meeting Sobers at the Hilton in Barbados. Hong Kong Jack shares the story of Sobers -- completely ambidextrous -- playing golf off scratch left-handed and off two right-handed.

01:27:53 -- Rugby Union's Nations Championship A new format pits Northern Hemisphere sides against Southern Hemisphere sides, culminating in finals at Twickenham. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical anyone will care which hemisphere wins. The 2027 Rugby World Cup in Australia, however, is selling tickets strongly.

01:30:00 -- Sign-Off Jack the Insider thanks listeners and apologises for the previous week's absence due to illness. The hosts promise to return on or around 31 July, though Hong Kong Jack advises against buying "20-year futures in us."

Social Media PostsTwitter / X

Post 1: One Nation could win up to 19 seats in the Victorian election. On this week's episode, we break down what a three-cornered contest means for the major parties -- and why minority government may be coming to Spring Street. Listen now.

Post 2: "Putin, when cornered, does not act rationally." This week we examine the escalating dangers in Ukraine, Russian passports in Moldova, and why oil above USD 100 spells trouble for Trump. New episode of The Two Jacks out now.

Post 3: $400,000. That is what it costs to train GPs across Australia to diagnose and treat ME/CFS -- and the government has cut it. We discuss why this quiet defunding of Emerge Australia is a disgrace. Full episode linked.

Post 4: Derryn Hinch transformed Australian media. He also, by his own grandstanding, gave a paedophile priest four more years of access to children. This week we examine the complicated legacy of the Human Headline.

Post 5: Bazball is dead. Garry Sobers is immortal. Nicky Winmar is out of the Hall of Fame. Our sport segment this week covers the big calls in cricket, AFL, rugby, and a World Cup final that unified the planet -- against Argentina.

Facebook

This week on The Two Jacks: Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack navigate a political landscape where the old rules no longer apply.

Redbridge polling has One Nation on track to become kingmaker in Victoria. We explore what minority government would actually look like -- and whether Labor can cling to power even if it finishes second.

Bill Kelty says Australia's bureaucracy treats symptoms, not causes. We ask: where has political courage gone, and could anyone sell reform the way Keating did?

From a USD 400,000 funding cut that will devastate chronic fatigue sufferers, to pharmaceutical companies abandoning Australian clinical trials, to a PBS in need of root-and-branch reform -- the domestic agenda is packed.

Internationally, the picture is darker. Putin is cornered in Ukraine. Iran burns. Oil has passed USD 100. And the US midterms are shaping up as a referendum on Trump's foreign policy.

Plus: Derryn Hinch's complicated legacy, Argentina's World Cup, Nicky Winmar and the AFL's consistency problem, the death of Bazball, and a toast to Sir Garfield Sobers -- the greatest cricketer who ever lived.

Listen wherever you get your podcasts.

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Caption for episode artwork: Episode 165 is live. This week: One Nation's Victorian moment, Putin's dangerous corner, the Hinch legacy, and why a $400K funding cut matters more than you think. Link in bio. 🇦🇺

This week's episode of The Two Jacks tackles the intersection of politics, economics, and accountability.

We analyse Redbridge polling showing One Nation could secure up to 19 seats in the Victorian state election -- a result that would fundamentally reshape the state's political architecture. The discussion raises serious questions about how minority government would function in practice and what protest voting in Labor heartland seats means for the major parties' long-term strategies.

Bill Kelty's recent economic commentary provides the framework for a broader conversation about bureaucratic inertia, infrastructure cost blowouts, and the housing crisis. The comparison with the Hawke-Keating reform era is instructive: today's political class appears to lack both the courage to pursue structural reform and the narrative skills to sell it.

Other topics include the defunding of Emerge Australia (a case study in the real-world impact of line-item budget decisions), the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme's growing tension with global pharmaceutical companies, and the deteriorating geopolitical situation across Ukraine, Iran, and the broader Middle East.

...more