The Conditional Release Program

Oh my god don't get RSV it's so shit. We will be back with TCRP soon. My brain has been goats cheese. It's been a hell of a fortnight but there's a lot going on and it must be laughed at. In the meantime, here is a plethora of Jacks to satiate your auspol cravings.

This week the shownotes are slopped to you by GPT 5.5 - which seems to have done an okay job and also sounds a lot less 'chatGPT' which is nice. The titles are way less shit than usual. Maybe that sociopathic compulsive liar Sam Altman is onto something.

Nah.

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In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, recorded on 2 July 2026, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take a wide-ranging look at the political, economic and sporting stories shaping Australia and the world.

The episode opens with Australia’s housing market, including recent house price falls, the risks facing first home buyers using the 5 per cent deposit scheme, and the dangers of negative equity. The Jacks then turn to the striking rise of One Nation, debating whether the surge is a genuine long-term disruption in Australian politics or partly a mirage fuelled by social media, disinformation and dissatisfaction with the major parties.

Victorian politics comes under close scrutiny, with discussion of Moira Deeming, the Matthew Guy allegation, Jess Wilson’s leadership, and Jacinta Allan’s handling of the Big Build controversies. Internationally, the episode covers Andy Burnham’s likely move into Downing Street, Keir Starmer’s defence spending announcement, Trump-era decision-making as explored in Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman’s book, congressional stock trading in the United States, and the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The show wraps with sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement from international cricket, England’s reckless loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another World Cup final.

00:00:25 — Welcome to Episode 163

Jack the Insider opens the show and marks the start of the new financial year in Australia. Hong Kong Jack joins from Hong Kong, where the previous day marked Reunification Day, the anniversary of the handover to the People’s Republic of China.

00:01:10 — Housing Prices, First Home Buyers and Negative Equity

The Jacks begin with Australia’s housing market and recent reports of price declines in suburbs with strong uptake of the 5 per cent deposit scheme. They unpack the risk of highly leveraged first home buyers falling into negative equity, where the debt on a property exceeds its current market value.

Hong Kong Jack recalls the early 1990s Melbourne housing market, when banks were reluctant to sell distressed inner-suburban properties because doing so would have further damaged the market. The discussion compares that period with the global financial crisis in the United States and Ireland, where property crashes led to widespread foreclosures.

00:04:00 — Can Australian House Prices Keep Rising?

The conversation turns to whether Australian housing can continue producing the large capital gains many homeowners have come to expect. Jack the Insider argues that prices in Sydney and Melbourne cannot keep rising at the same pace without locking younger buyers out of the market.

Hong Kong Jack makes the broader point that Australia’s tax and investment settings have made owner-occupied housing unusually attractive compared with other investments, contributing to long-term affordability problems.

00:06:36 — Could Money Shift from Housing to the ASX?

Jack the Insider speculates that if housing becomes less reliable as an investment vehicle, more money may flow into equities and the Australian share market. The discussion also touches on the weak outlook for CBD commercial property, with work-from-home trends continuing to affect demand.

00:07:25 — The 5 Per Cent Deposit Scheme

The Jacks assess the Albanese government’s 5 per cent deposit scheme for first home buyers. Hong Kong Jack says it may provide some help for young people trying to enter the market, but it is not a magic solution to housing affordability.

They discuss the practical challenge of borrowing large sums with very little equity, especially if prices flatten or fall. The risk for banks and borrowers is that buyers may end up with little or no equity for some time.

00:10:41 — The One Nation Surge

The episode moves to One Nation’s rise in the polls. Jack the Insider notes that One Nation polled around 6.5 per cent nationally at the previous federal election but is now polling far higher, with some figures placing the party in the 20s.

The Jacks discuss possible reasons for the surge, including public dissatisfaction with the major parties, the political aftermath of the Bondi terror attack, and the way right-wing voters are shifting away from the Coalition.

00:11:48 — Social Media, Bots and the “Mirage” of One Nation

Jack the Insider raises concerns about foreign influence, AI-generated videos, disinformation and bot-like social media activity targeting Australian politics. He cites examples of fake or misleading material involving Natalie Barr, Anthony Albanese and claims about Labor figures selling property after the budget.

He argues that some of the online activity appears designed to attack both the government and the Coalition while indirectly benefiting One Nation. He describes part of the One Nation surge as a “mirage”, while acknowledging that real-world results, such as the South Australian election and the Farrar by-election, show the party has genuine support.

00:18:20 — Is One Nation the Biggest Political Disruption Since World War II?

Hong Kong Jack argues that, even allowing for some mirage factor, One Nation’s polling makes it the biggest disruption to Australian politics since World War II. He compares the party’s current position with the historical performance of the DLP, Australian Democrats and Greens, none of which reached similar national polling levels.

Jack the Insider counters that One Nation’s rise appears to be splintering the right-wing vote rather than pulling substantial support from Labor or the left. The Jacks agree the Liberal Party has a major strategic problem: it must rebuild its primary vote while deciding how directly to confront One Nation.

00:21:56 — What Should the Liberal Party Do?

The Jacks discuss the Liberal Party’s path back to competitiveness. Hong Kong Jack says the party should stop obsessing over polls and focus on hard policy work, local campaigning and the basics of politics.

Jack the Insider argues the Liberals will eventually need to attack One Nation directly. His view is that conservative voters must be told clearly that a vote for One Nation is likely to help return Labor to government or create instability.

00:23:38 — Pauline Hanson, Policy Uncertainty and Senate Attendance

Jack the Insider criticises Pauline Hanson’s policy understanding and parliamentary work ethic, citing her position on maternity leave and Senate attendance. He argues that One Nation’s shifting policy framework and uncertainty will become more apparent under greater scrutiny.

The Jacks also discuss preference flows and whether the Coalition can rely on One Nation preferences if the right-wing vote remains fragmented.

00:26:51 — Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy and the Victorian Liberals

The conversation shifts to Victorian Liberal politics. Jack the Insider discusses Moira Deeming, who is likely to face disendorsement, and says Jess Wilson appears to be handling internal party discipline more effectively than previous Liberal leaders.

The Jacks examine Deeming’s allegation involving Matthew Guy and the CCTV footage that emerged afterward. Jack the Insider argues that the Victorian Liberals must deal firmly with internal destabilisation if they are to present themselves as a credible alternative government.

00:31:00 — Don Farrell on One Nation and the Bondi Attack

Hong Kong Jack notes that Labor frontbencher Don Farrell has attributed One Nation’s rise partly to Coalition division and partly to a post-Bondi surge. Jack the Insider questions whether the Bondi attack will become a lasting voting determinant, suggesting it may prove to be a temporary political factor.

The discussion also covers One Nation and the Greens voting against proposed bans on hate preachers, despite rhetoric about the issue after Bondi.

00:33:08 — Newspoll, Labor’s Position and Coalition Trouble

Jack the Insider discusses polling showing Labor improving, One Nation slipping slightly and the Coalition struggling. He argues that the Coalition must win back a large share of One Nation’s support if it is to become competitive.

The Jacks consider whether One Nation has reached its high watermark or whether the movement has deeper staying power. They also note that Labor and the Greens together remain in a strong position if the conservative vote continues to fracture.

00:38:08 — Jacinta Allan and Victoria’s Big Build Problems

Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan comes under scrutiny over the Big Build projects and allegations surrounding inflated costs and union influence. The Jacks discuss reporting by The Age’s investigative unit and Nick McKenzie, including claims about contractors being asked whether they could do deals with unions.

Hong Kong Jack says Allan’s position looks increasingly terminal, while Jack the Insider says there is widespread anger among Victorians toward the government. They agree the timing of the controversy is politically damaging for Labor.

00:41:07 — Could Victorian Labor Replace Jacinta Allan?

The Jacks debate whether Victorian Labor has the courage or capacity to replace Allan before the election. Jack the Insider argues that taking over now would be a political kamikaze job, given the scale of Labor’s problems.

They compare Allan with Daniel Andrews, whom Jack the Insider describes as a much stronger communicator and political operator. The discussion also considers whether Labor still has a narrow path to victory if the right-wing vote splits between the Liberals, One Nation and other parties.

00:45:35 — The Age, “Uniparty” Claims and Victorian Labor’s Defenders

Hong Kong Jack shares a social media post attacking The Age as part of a supposed One Nation-Liberal-National “uniparty” media operation. The Jacks use it to illustrate the type of rhetoric surrounding Victorian politics and the difficulty Labor faces as corruption and governance issues dominate the debate.

00:46:46 — Joh Bjelke-Petersen Comparisons and Victorian Corruption

The conversation touches on comparisons between Victoria’s current political troubles and the corruption scandals that brought down Joh Bjelke-Petersen in Queensland. Jack the Insider notes commentary suggesting that corruption can become the defining factor that ends a long-running government.

They also discuss the relationship between Victorian Labor and sections of the union movement, including the role of unions in major construction projects.

00:50:30 — Andy Burnham’s UK Program

The Jacks move to UK politics and Andy Burnham’s expected rise to the prime ministership. Hong Kong Jack outlines Burnham’s program, including a proposal to govern partly from Manchester and devolve more power to regions and councils.

Jack the Insider frames this as part of a broader devolution agenda. Hong Kong Jack is sceptical, arguing that devolution has not clearly succeeded in Scotland or Wales and may not deliver the growth Burnham is promising.

00:53:59 — Keir Starmer’s Defence Spending Announcement

Keir Starmer’s proposed defence spending boost comes under scrutiny. Hong Kong Jack argues the numbers do not add up and describes the announcement as “smoke and mirrors”.

The Jacks also discuss Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch’s performance at Prime Minister’s Questions and how she may find Burnham a tougher opponent than Starmer.

00:56:59 — “Died” or “Passed Away”?

In a lighter aside, the Jacks discuss euphemisms around death, particularly the increasingly common use of “passed” or “passed away”. Hong Kong Jack says he prefers plain language and warns Jack the Insider not to say he has “passed” when the time comes.

00:58:28 — Jonathan Swan, Maggie Haberman and Trump’s Decision-Making

The conversation moves to the United States and the book by Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman. Jack the Insider discusses material about Trump’s decision-making style, particularly the tendency to favour gut instinct even when advice from officials points in another direction.

The Jacks discuss US decision-making around Iran and the dangers of ignoring structured advice in favour of personal instinct.

01:04:11 — AI, Congress and Insider Trading

The Jacks discuss claims that AI tools have exposed widespread conflicts between congressional stock trades and the legislative work of US politicians. The system described cross-references stock purchases with bills and committee activity.

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack stress that this is a bipartisan problem, not confined to one party or one administration. They note that the STOCK Act was intended to address congressional trading conflicts but has not produced meaningful enforcement.

01:08:47 — Trump, Crypto, Wealth and Corruption

The discussion broadens to Donald Trump’s personal enrichment, including crypto ventures, the Qatar jet issue and business opportunities involving Trump family members. Jack the Insider argues that Trump appears to be benefiting heavily from his second term.

Hong Kong Jack says the presidency is difficult to regulate in this area, while Congress has shown little willingness to police itself.

01:13:36 — Russia-Ukraine War Update

Jack the Insider discusses Ukrainian drone strikes near Moscow, including attacks on fuel infrastructure and refineries. The Jacks note reports of fuel shortages, long queues and unrest at Russian service stations.

Hong Kong Jack explains that Ukraine appears to be targeting specific refinery components that Russia cannot easily replace. The Jacks also discuss reports of Russian troop movements, the pressure on Crimea, and the possibility of political instability inside Russia if the war continues to turn against Moscow.

01:18:34 — Drone Warfare and Moscow’s Vulnerability

The Jacks reflect on how drone warfare has transformed modern conflict. Jack the Insider describes footage of Ukrainian drones reaching Moscow while Russian air defences fired ineffectively.

They note that when the invasion began, few expected Ukraine to hold out for years, let alone gain the upper hand in key areas through targeted strikes and technological adaptation.

01:20:15 — Ben Stokes Retires from International Cricket

The sports segment begins with Ben Stokes’ surprise retirement from international cricket. Jack the Insider describes watching the announcement unfold during England’s Test against New Zealand and says the moment shifted the entire atmosphere of the match.

The Jacks argue that England’s focus turned into a farewell lap for Stokes rather than a serious attempt to win or save the Test.

01:22:10 — England’s Reckless Chase and New Zealand’s Great Win

The Jacks criticise England’s approach to the run chase, including the decision to open with Stokes and the reckless batting that followed. They praise New Zealand for a disciplined, hard-fought victory and highlight Daryl Mitchell’s courageous century on a difficult wicket.

Hong Kong Jack says New Zealand’s series win deserves major recognition, especially given their record away from home under their captain.

01:25:16 — New Zealand’s Strength and England’s Bazball Problem

The Jacks discuss New Zealand’s strengths: preparation, fielding, resilience and intent. They contrast this with England’s loose approach and the possible end of the Bazball era.

Jack the Insider says Ben Stokes has been a wonderful player and match-winner but argues that England now faces serious leadership and management problems. The Jacks debate the futures of Brendon McCullum, Rob Key and England’s Test setup.

01:32:19 — World Cup, France and Brazil

The Jacks briefly discuss the World Cup, noting the difficulty of keeping track of the tournament but identifying France as looking particularly strong. Brazil and Norway are also mentioned as teams to watch.

01:32:47 — State of Origin Preview

The conversation turns to State of Origin, with the Blues heading to Lang Park. Jack the Insider says New South Wales have only rarely won a series decider there and does not see it happening this time.

01:33:15 — AFL Fixtures and Broadcast Frustrations

The Jacks preview upcoming AFL matches, including Geelong versus Brisbane, Sydney versus the Bulldogs, and Richmond versus Carlton. Jack the Insider questions the logic of the AFL fixture, particularly overlapping games and the lack of Saturday afternoon free-to-air football.

01:36:19 — Australian Women’s Cricket Team Reaches Another Final

Jack the Insider notes that Australia’s women’s cricket team has reached another ICC World Cup final after beating India. England and South Africa are due to play for the other spot in the final.

He praises the Australian side for remaining a powerful force despite changes from previous line-ups.

01:37:11 — Listener Feedback and Sign-Off

Jack the Insider closes the episode by thanking Hong Kong Jack for his opinions and preparation. Listeners are encouraged to send in comments, criticisms and issues they would like the Two Jacks to tackle in future episodes.

Hong Kong Jack jokingly asks listeners not to send anything complimentary.

-- Dunno why it did this but it gave another show description? Whatever nobody is still reading at this point.

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Australia’s housing jitters, the risks facing first home buyers, One Nation’s polling surge, and the Coalition’s strategic dilemma. They also examine Victorian Labor’s Big Build troubles, Jacinta Allan’s leadership problems, Andy Burnham’s UK agenda, Trump-era decision-making, congressional stock trading, Ukraine’s drone war against Russia and a huge week in sport, including Ben Stokes’ retirement and New Zealand’s Test triumph over England.

In episode 163 of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack begin with Australia’s housing market, where falling prices in some first home buyer suburbs raise questions about the 5 per cent deposit scheme and the risk of negative equity.

The major political focus is One Nation’s dramatic rise in the polls. Is it a genuine realignment of Australian politics, the biggest disruption since World War II, or partly a mirage inflated by social media, disinformation and frustration with the major parties? The Jacks examine what this means for the Liberal Party, why the conservative vote is splintering, and how Labor may benefit.

In Victoria, the Jacks look at Moira Deeming, Matthew Guy, Jess Wilson, Jacinta Allan and the Big Build controversies that continue to put pressure on the state government. Overseas, they discuss Andy Burnham’s UK program, Keir Starmer’s defence spending claims, Trump’s reliance on instinct over advice, AI-driven scrutiny of congressional stock trading, and Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian fuel infrastructure.

The episode finishes with sport: Ben Stokes’ international retirement, England’s disastrous Test loss to New Zealand, the future of Bazball, World Cup football, State of Origin, AFL fixturing and Australia’s women’s cricket team reaching another final.

This weeks AI slop is brought to you by GLM 5.1 - a weird model I have never heard of before. Funnily enough, it kinda all sounds the same at this point. Still, half decent job I think.

Episode 162 covers a sweeping range of domestic and international news. The budget has cleared the Senate with Greens amendments on NDIS oversight and the blocking of superannuation for housing purchases, while the opposition fumbles its response. Property markets are feeling the chill, with auction clearance rates down and investors spooked by negative gearing changes. In the UK, Keir Starmer has resigned after a failed premiership -- described by one BBC journalist as someone utterly disinterested in the basic skills of leadership -- and Andy Burnham looks set to take over, with market jitters already building around the prospect of Ed Miliband as Chancellor. The Iran memorandum of understanding gets a sceptical examination: it is little more than an agreement to talk, bought by a Trump administration desperate for a pre-midterm win. Meanwhile, US missile stockpiles are running critically low, with an $80 billion replenishment request and a $1.5 trillion total defence budget underscoring the cost of recent conflicts. Back home, One Nation's push for a "monoculture" and forced property sales for permanent residents gets a thorough dismantling, and the global football World Cup, Carlton's AFL resurgence, and England's cricketing woes round out the show.

00:25 - Welcome and episode introduction; Hong Kong Jack checks in from a sweltering Hong Kong, discussing the annual exodus of expats on business-class contracts.

01:50 - Ukraine's stunning military comeback: a single bridge now links Russia to Crimea, with the rest of claimed territory back in Ukrainian hands.

02:38 - The budget passes the Senate. Greens wring concessions on NDIS oversight and block the use of superannuation for housing, but Hong Kong Jack notes the Greens have only agreed to extend the committee talking about the NDIS, not to the measures themselves.

04:26 - The opposition's disastrous budget response. Dennis Shanahan's brutal assessment: Angus Taylor was handed a penalty shot with a prone goalkeeper and still missed. Toxic taxes, dangerous deals -- the alliteration that murdered a political attack.

07:00 - Tax reform legislation passes the House: the 250 Working Australians Tax Offset, staged tax cuts, and early moves on CGT and negative gearing. But certainty is in short supply -- investors and superannuants are left wondering what the final rules will actually look like.

08:31 - Two core failures of the budget: it does almost nothing for growth, and the consequences were not properly thought through.

10:01 - Fuel excise suspension: a temporary reprieve, but as electric vehicles soak up 20% of the market and pay zero road tax, a new user-pays model is inevitable. Logbooks, GPS tracking, or something uglier?

13:26 - Budget benefits feel distant to renters and the young, while the property market cools. Auction clearance rates have dropped to roughly 50%.

16:58 - Negative gearing changes from July 2027: anecdotal evidence suggests investors are already looking to offload. The Treasury forecasts around 2% growth in residential property, but Hong Kong Jack argues a 5-10% drop is politically survivable for most homeowners.

18:27 - Teaser for next episode: US congressional stock-picking, Trump and Putin, and broader corruption in public office.

18:45 - UK politics. Keir Starmer resigns as Prime Minister -- the seventh PM in ten years. A devastating BBC assessment: "In all my years covering politics, I have never met anyone so lacking in an interest in the skills a leader needs."

20:50 - Starmer's fatal flaw: like Kevin Rudd, he governed without the permission of his parliamentary party. He was dismissive of the collegiality Westminster democracy demands.

22:57 - Starmer did not go to the palace -- he phoned in his resignation. Hong Kong Jack notes the contrast with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss making the journey to Balmoral.

24:12 - Andy Burnham looks certain to become PM, with rivals bought off with portfolios. But if Ed Miliband is appointed Chancellor, bond markets could punish the UK hard.

26:00 - UK gilt yields at 6%. The debt interest bill is enormous, and Burnham has not put forward a single policy for reducing government spending or creating growth.

26:35 - Burnham's policies: incremental re-nationalisation of railways, and nationalising water services -- requiring massive compensation payments. Not one word on spending reduction.

28:59 - Brexit has not delivered. The "Singapore of Europe" model that could have worked was never pursued. Instead, it has destabilised the UK politically and socially.

32:06 - The political class resisted what voters wanted on Brexit. That disconnect with the electorate has still not been healed -- the rise of Reform is the evidence.

33:47 - Burnham says this is Labour's last chance. Jack the Insider sees potential party fracture; Hong Kong Jack is not convinced it is the death of Labour.

38:12 - Did Russia influence Brexit? Jack the Insider argues foreign interference at least played a role; Hong Kong Jack insists it was a genuine grassroots movement.

38:56 - Grassroots movements are easily astroturfed. "You can take it to the bank that Putin is having a good old giggle about Brexit."

40:50 - Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Iran threatened closure but CENTCOM reports the waterway remains open, albeit not operating normally.

42:10 - The Iran MOU gives Trump the political fix he needs before midterms. Approval ratings have cratered to 30%.

43:32 - The MOU is merely an agreement to sit down and talk. Nothing in it is guaranteed to appear in a final deal.

44:49 - US missile stockpiles: Pete Hegseth requests $80 billion just to replenish. The US fired 130-250 SM-3 interceptors at $28.7 million each, up to 290 THAAD interceptors at $15.5 million each, and over 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles.

47:58 - The conflict cost $29 billion in direct expenditures, exposing massive supply chain bottlenecks. The Trump administration now requests a staggering $1.5 trillion total defence budget for FY2027.

49:12 - Military innovation Supercharges after conflict: drones, shoulder-fired interceptors, and cheaper alternatives to expensive missile defence systems.

50:51 - Spending 3% of GDP on defence is fine in principle, but Australia has wasted enormous sums over decades. The money must be spent better.

52:54 - Monoculture. Following Pauline Hanson's National Press Club speech, a deep dive into what "monoculture" actually means -- and whether it means anything at all.

54:42 - Denmark's integration model: language tests, employment self-sufficiency periods, civic knowledge programs. Denmark insists migrants become Danish before gaining permanent status.

55:41 - Europe's weakness: no pathway to become truly French or German. Turkish guest workers from the 1950s remain Turkish guest workers. Australia's approach has been different.

56:32 - One Nation's policy would create tiers of Australians. The proposal to force permanent residents to sell their homes is legally questionable and politically volatile.

59:04 - Can the High Court block forced property sales? Hong Kong Jack thinks it probably would not intervene. Jack the Insider sees ugliness: bailiffs at doors, fire sales of homes.

01:01:35 - The distinction between permanent residents and citizens: most PR holders see it as a stepping stone to citizenship, but 5-6 year citizenship processing backlogs trap people in between.

01:04:06 - Foreign Investment Review Board restrictions already limit student visa holders to properties capped at roughly $1-1.5 million, with mandatory sale within three years of departure.

01:07:26 - The monoculture idea cannot work. You cannot have immigration and monoculture simultaneously.

01:08:14 - Australian multiculturalism is fundamentally different to the European model that Merkel, Cameron, and Sarkozy all declared a failure in 2015.

01:08:57 - One Nation's rise warrants closer examination of where the money and promotion are coming from. Teased for next episode.

01:10:45 - Barbecue culture: the undeniable truth that four pints while barbecuing is perfectly acceptable, and Australian outdoor kitchens have reversed the old pattern -- cooking outside, bathroom inside.

01:13:46 - FIFA World Cup. Australia's T20 series win over Bangladesh passes almost unnoticed.

01:15:12 - 40,000 Colombians in Australia celebrating their team. The ABC tracks down Cape Verde's diaspora -- 20 people in Australia -- including a centre-back who got his international call-up via LinkedIn.

01:16:36 - Australia vs Paraguay: a win guarantees progression. The entire nation may stop working at 1:30pm.

01:18:27 - A blunt assessment of Australia's performance against the USA: 65% possession for the opposition, very shaky with the ball.

01:18:47 - Netherlands looking the strongest at the tournament. Brazil, Switzerland, Norway, and Argentina all impressing.

01:20:32 - Erling Haaland's charming post-match interview: "We have France next and they'll probably beat us, but then they'll probably go all the way and win the World Cup."

01:22:39 - Rugby Union: is the death of Australian rugby overstated? Ticket sales for the Rugby World Cup are booming at 650,000, but Super Rugby is in decline and may not survive in its current format.

01:24:39 - Anti-siphoning laws and the shifting broadcast landscape as telcos muscle into sports rights.

01:26:06 - Carlton's extraordinary AFL season: won one, lost eight, sacked the coach, won five straight under an interim. Six players aged 21 or younger, two of them 18. Patrick Cripps is rattling up Brownlow votes.

01:27:22 - Harry Dean should win the Rising Star. The forward line works without a monster key forward.

01:30:06 - Wade Dirk, the rookie from Darwin, holds Jesse Hogan to one goal while getting 20 touches himself.

01:30:52 - Fremantle look the best side in the competition. Buddy Franklin still tips Brisbane.

01:31:58 - Collingwood: marking time. The senior champions are still carrying the side while the next generation struggles.

01:33:14 - Ben Stokes recalled to the England cricket side -- essentially picked because he is captain. England thrashed by 253 runs by New Zealand at the Oval.

01:35:22 - Gideon Ha's devastating summary of England's Oval test: "England hit bottom, keep digging. Five changes, two blokes unavailable because they were on the piss, one bloke out because his wife was pregnant, old stager as emergency captain, no spinner, a backstop as keeper, and four number 11s."

01:36:26 - If England lose at Trent Bridge next week, there will be hell to pay. An Ashes tour looms next year.

Okay so I got Claude Opus 4.6 to do the shownotes this week and my god does it suck. I always thought Claude was good. Anthropic are the ones who refused to automate weapons entirely and made Pete Hegseth ANGERY or at least more pissed off than usual.

This sucked. The shownotes don't have timed sections because Claude is too stupid to see that there are indeed timestamps in the transcript.

The titles suck too. What a crappy clanker. If this is what it does for two jacks shownotes it ain't ready to bomb villages.

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Episode summary

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a crowded week of news, moving from the latest discussion around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to the political temperature in Australia following Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance. Along the way, they explore media reaction, public sentiment, political strategy and the broader direction of Western politics, before shifting gears to the sporting moments commanding Australian attention, including football, rugby league and cricket.

Show notes

In this episode, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack range across the major stories shaping the week, beginning with international affairs and the renewed focus on Iran’s nuclear position. They revisit the 2015 nuclear deal, discuss the implications of newer diplomatic understandings, and consider what recent developments could mean for the region, military stability and the wider geopolitical balance.

The conversation then turns to Australian politics, with a detailed discussion of Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, the response it generated, and what that says about the present state of political debate in Australia. The hosts examine how media framing, cultural anxieties and voter sentiment interact, and what these reactions may reveal about broader political trends.

From there, the episode widens out to global politics and economics, touching on shifts in the United Kingdom, tensions within Labour politics, and recurring concerns around American political culture and governance.

The episode closes on sport, with reaction to football World Cup developments, State of Origin rugby league and the latest talking points in Australian cricket, giving the discussion a distinctly local finish after a broad sweep through international and domestic affairs.

Key topics covered:

• Iran’s nuclear program, the JCPOA and regional security implications
• The strategic meaning of newer diplomatic agreements and understandings
• Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance
• Media response, censorship concerns and political messaging in Australia
• Broader shifts in UK and US politics
• Football World Cup developments
• State of Origin and rugby league storylines
• Australian cricket updates
• Predictions about elections, public mood and political change

Episode information version

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in news, politics and sport. They examine the evolving debate around Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA, assess the fallout from Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, and explore what media reaction says about the state of Australian politics. The conversation also takes in developments in UK and US politics before wrapping with football, rugby league and cricket highlights that round out the week for Australian audiences.

Separate timestamped highlights shownotes

I can structure these now, but I cannot responsibly insert exact adjusted timecodes without the transcript’s original timestamps. Once the timestamped transcript text is available, each listed time should simply have 25 seconds added to account for the theme music.

Timestamped highlights

• 00:00:25 – Episode introduction and the major themes of the week
• 00:00:25 – Iran, the 2015 JCPOA and the significance of the latest developments
• 00:00:25 – Regional risks, military implications and the broader geopolitical picture
• 00:00:25 – Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and why it landed so strongly
• 00:00:25 – Media reaction, public framing and the question of political censorship
• 00:00:25 – What the debate says about Australian political strategy and voter mood
• 00:00:25 – Political trends in the UK and tensions within Labour
• 00:00:25 – US politics, corruption concerns and wider institutional trust
• 00:00:25 – Football World Cup discussion and major sporting headlines
• 00:00:25 – State of Origin and rugby league reaction
• 00:00:25 – Australian cricket updates
• 00:00:25 – Predictions for elections, political change and what may come next

Production note: replace each placeholder above with the actual transcript timestamp plus 25 seconds.

If you want, I can also turn this into a final timestamped list immediately once you paste the transcript text or re-upload a version that includes visible timecodes.

Short-form show notes version

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover a wide sweep of the week’s biggest stories, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the long shadow of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance and the state of Australian political debate. They also look at political developments in the UK and US before finishing with the latest from football, rugby league and cricket.

Long-form show notes version

This week, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack take listeners from the Middle East to Canberra and then onto the sporting field, unpacking the stories driving debate at home and abroad. They begin with Iran, revisiting the 2015 nuclear deal and discussing the implications of more recent diplomatic movement, including the strategic consequences for the region and the wider international order.

The discussion then moves to Australian politics, centring on Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club speech and the reaction it triggered. The hosts examine how the speech was received, how sections of the media responded, and what the episode reveals about current fault lines in Australian public life. They also consider how political narratives are shaped, who benefits from them, and where voter sentiment may be heading.

Beyond Australia, the conversation expands to the United Kingdom and the United States, exploring fractures in party politics, questions of public trust and the broader drift of democratic institutions. To round things out, the episode shifts into sport, with football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket all getting a run, delivering a distinctly Australian close to a broad and energetic news discussion.

Social media posts

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This week on The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack tackle Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech, media reaction, and the latest from football, rugby league and cricket. A wide-ranging look at the stories shaping the week in Australia and beyond.

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Iran, Hanson and the world game. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack break down a packed week in politics, geopolitics and sport, with sharp takes on Canberra, the Middle East and the headlines Australians are talking about.

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This week’s episode of The Two Jacks covers a huge stretch of the news cycle, from Iran’s nuclear arrangements and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the media reaction it sparked. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack also discuss political trends in the UK and US before wrapping up with football, rugby league and cricket. If you want one conversation that captures the week’s major talking points for an Australian audience, this is it.

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In the latest episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack examine the intersection of geopolitics, domestic political messaging and public sentiment. The discussion covers Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s National Press Club appearance, media framing, and broader political trends in Australia, the UK and the US, before closing with the sporting stories dominating local conversation. A thoughtful sweep of the week’s major issues.

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A big week of news, politics and sport on The Two Jacks. Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack Iran’s nuclear diplomacy, Pauline Hanson’s Press Club appearance, media reaction, and the sporting headlines Australians are following across football, rugby league and cricket. Listen now for a sharp, wide-ranging take on the week.

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Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a packed week of headlines, from Iran’s nuclear diplomacy and the legacy of the 2015 JCPOA to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club speech and the response it generated across Australian media and politics. The episode also explores broader trends in UK and US politics before turning to sport, with discussion of football World Cup developments, State of Origin and cricket. A wide-ranging news conversation with an Australian focus.

Newsletter blurb

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack cover the week’s biggest talking points, from Iran’s nuclear future and regional stability to Pauline Hanson’s Press Club moment and what it reveals about Australian political culture. Add in political developments abroad and a strong finish on football, rugby league and cricket, and this episode offers a full sweep of the news Australians are watching.

Friends! Romans! Cuntrymen! It is indeed that time again for another serving of AI slop to vaguely describe the TWO JACKS PODCAST! This has been generated by Kimi K2.6 which is an AI model I've never heard of. It's offered with Perplexity Pro which I got for free for some reason. What a golden age of tokens we live in. Can't wait till they actually try to recoup costs on this shit.

Enjoy!

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack unpack a striking set of political and cultural fault lines, led by One Nation’s polling surge and what it says about protest voting, party decay and Australia’s increasingly fragmented political mood. They also take aim at Labor’s failure to tell a convincing economic story, debate whether Victorian Labor can survive the year, and argue that Australia’s tobacco excise regime has become a textbook public policy disaster.

Further on, the conversation ranges across Europe’s latest move against Russians linked to the war, the resilience and ingenuity of Ukraine, British politics around Andy Burnham and Reform, and a lively sport finish featuring the Luke Sayers/AFL mess, Fremantle’s flag credentials, and England cricket’s latest self-inflicted drama.

• 00:00:25 – Welcome back to The Two Jacks: Joel Hill, aka Jack the Insider, joins Hong Kong Jack and opens with weather chat from Hong Kong before previewing a politics-heavy episode.
• 00:01:43 – One Nation tops the polling: the Jacks examine the headline poll, what a 31 percent primary vote means, and whether a One Nation-dominated conservative bloc is now thinkable.
• 00:03:02 – Protest vote or something bigger? A story from regional Victoria sparks a discussion about grievance politics, capital gains reform, wage policy and why people may vote against their own economic interests.
• 00:04:50 – The “preference cascade” theory: Hong Kong Jack argues voters often keep quiet about taboo political views until they realise the neighbours are thinking the same thing.
• 00:06:52 – A Liberal-One Nation non-compete deal? The pair look at the idea that the Liberals could stop competing in some seats and why that would be a huge sign of weakness.
• 00:08:20 – Cos Samaras’ warning: if the Coalition is polling this badly, it is not negotiating with One Nation, it is begging.
• 00:10:37 – Could Nationals simply defect? The discussion turns to whether National Party MPs in regional seats might eventually decide orange ties are safer than blue ones.
• 00:12:46 – Three-cornered politics: Nick Cater’s view gets a run as the Jacks argue the shape of the contest is still unfolding and hard to read.
• 00:14:10 – Preferencing One Nation: would the Liberals burn their city vote if they formally put One Nation ahead of Labor?
• 00:16:14 – Labor’s messaging problem: Peter Wilkinson’s advice prompts a broader argument about how governments need a visible plan, a narrative and a destination.
• 00:18:06 – The Dan Andrews comparison: Joel argues Andrews’ strength was simple political communication, while Albanese’s government seems unable or unwilling to tell a coherent story.
• 00:21:01 – Budget politics and drift: was there a better path available to Labor, and why has the government struggled to sell even its own reforms?
• 00:23:58 – Productivity, growth and living standards: Hong Kong Jack says the government should have framed the budget around national renewal rather than small-target politics.
• 00:26:14 – One Nation and immigration: the Jacks debate how major parties and commentators should respond without driving more voters into Hanson’s camp.
• 00:30:40 – The value of dissent: Duncan McNabb’s point about advisors who disagree leads to a broader conversation about whether modern political offices still tolerate honest internal argument.
• 00:33:35 – How do you fight One Nation? They discuss why calling voters stupid or racist is politically useless, even when the commentary class is tempted to do exactly that.
• 00:37:36 – Selling immigration differently: from postwar migration to Vietnamese Australians, the conversation turns to which migration success stories still resonate with voters.
• 00:41:13 – Victoria in trouble: a fresh poll suggests Victorian Labor is in deep strife, while One Nation’s rise adds another layer of chaos to the state election.
• 00:42:53 – Should Jacinta Allan go? The Jacks debate whether replacing the Premier now would help, hurt or simply arrive too late to matter.
• 00:46:24 – One Nation’s Victorian surge: from almost nowhere to the mid-20s in polling, but without the party structure usually needed to convert support into seats.
• 00:47:40 – Candidate risk and the ground game: why weak party organisation can hurt One Nation at election time, even if the polling looks enormous.
• 00:50:27 – If the Liberals win, then what? The likely debt clean-up and the danger that victory could carry its own political trap.
• 00:52:22 – Illicit tobacco and failed policy: Joel calls Australia’s tobacco excise regime one of the worst examples of public policy failure in the country.
• 00:56:40 – The black market takes over: the Jacks argue the war on smoking has instead delivered a bonanza for organised crime.
• 00:59:14 – Should the excise be cut? They weigh the case for slashing prices to drag smokers back into the legal market.
• 01:01:50 – Public health paternalism: a broader swipe at the regulatory mindset behind smoking, gambling and alcohol policy.
• 01:03:17 – Europe gets tougher on Russians: Ursula von der Leyen’s latest move leads into a bigger conversation about the Ukraine war and Russian displacement.
• 01:04:30 – Ukraine’s ingenuity: the Jacks discuss low-cost drone warfare, battlefield adaptation and why Ukraine has confounded predictions from the start.
• 01:07:25 – Pressure inside Russia: Putin’s security paranoia, economic strain and the social cost of a long war all come under the microscope.
• 01:09:57 – UK politics watch: Andy Burnham, Reform, Restore Britain and what the right-wing vote split could mean.
• 01:12:28 – AFL mess: the Luke Sayers saga, draft affidavits, the AFL integrity unit and a governing body that seems determined to make things worse.
• 01:15:53 – On-field footy is still thriving: despite the suits, the AFL product keeps selling, and Fremantle gets a big wrap as the form side of the competition.
• 01:18:13 – England v New Zealand: a dodgy wicket, an underwhelming contest, and why Australia may not fear Ollie Robinson all that much.
• 01:20:14 – Ben Stokes and the nightclub curfew saga: England’s leadership drama deepens after a night out turns into another avoidable mess.
• 01:23:37 – Is Stokes near the end? The show closes on England’s captaincy issues, Stokes’ physical decline and whether he will even make it to the next Ashes.
• 01:32:55 – Wrap-up: the Jacks preview next week’s likely topics, including UK by-elections, and sign off.

Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dive into One Nation’s extraordinary polling surge, the Coalition’s flirtation with preference deals, Labor’s chronic messaging failures and the warning signs flashing in Victoria. They also tackle Australia’s exploding illicit tobacco trade, Europe’s tougher line on Russia, the war in Ukraine, Andy Burnham’s chances in Britain, AFL governance chaos and another very English cricket mess.

If Daniel wrote these shownotes they would be much nicer. But honestly, this was exhausting. Listening to people who just ramble on about things they know nothing about is tiresome. I don't know how people listen to this for pleasure. It's a genuine waste of time.

But Daniel knows all about it. The dopamine hits. The self righteous anger. The feeling of tribalism. It's all baked into the piece. And while nobody seems to actually listen to their longform podcast (their listenscore is average at best), they get huge amounts of reach by making snappy little reels for social media. Reels like the one where they read out an email from the WikiLeaks/Podesta breach better known as 'Pizzagate' - except they don't read out what the emails actually say.

Is this intentional or accidental? That's hard to tell. But there's one thing that's easy to see - especially for anyone familiar with DMs work - these unwitting clowns are doing the bidding of billionaires who have pushed an agenda through 'citizen journalists' and astroturf media outlets to destroy faith in institutions and create culture wars to distract us from their efforts to pillage the world for insane amounts of money.

The greatest trick billionaires ever played was convincing idiots that trans kids are the problem.

These guys are the the useful idiots of the Epstein class.

Dan prepared a giant write up for this and did a great job. It's an excellent episode. I also finished a law exam that day (done for the semester - woot) which means I was, uh, academically refreshed by the time we started. But it gets worse. I even edited out some slurring at the end - my god. Definitely throwing stones in a glass house by the end...!

Enjoy this descent into the minds of those who seek to unite us by bricking people they disagree with. It's hard to understand how that works, but bro just trust the plan.

PS - if someone offers to fly you somewhere to do something you should ask who they are and maybe google them first. I would reference Tenet Media here but they knew what they were doing and who was paying them. I guess they get credit for that.

There's a lot going on folks but we narrowed it down to this:

Candace Owens ticketholders are stuffed. Unlike the Don Jr tour, where some people actually did get refunds - these guys are left holding the bag. Hard to feel sorry for them, though. Even if a few of the 15,000 ticketholders may have shelled out multiple instances of $1500 for the honour of eating cold steak in the same room as Candace Owens. Oh bestill my beating heart!

Jack looks into a developing story about 'weekend warriors' paying vast sums of money to Bosnian Serb military officers to shoot and kill civillians for sport. It's pretty rough but an important story which demands justice for victims.

We look at the Trump Phone - is it actually shipping? Does it suck? Is it assembled in the USA? Does it come with roadside assistance? We have an honest look at the product and the package it comes in.

AND

Monica goes back for her hat. The appeal failed. "Shit" she says as she closes her laptop lid. Another $150k or so added to the bill in costs. Ouch.

We look at some choice paragraphs in the judgment which highlight that Monica was complicit in the circumstances that landed her in a pool of debt.

Oh and we laugh at Babet because he's an idiot.

Enjoy!

PS - if you got this far please buy some CBCo beer - craft brewing is a struggling industry and it's not charity - the CRP10 checkout code makes it a pretty sweet deal.

If you are worried about China taking over due to having better robots than the yanks, I got mixed messages for ya here. This was created using DeepSeek v4 Pro. Remember when DeepSeek could do the same thing as chatGPT but on shitty processors and not much RAM? All those stocks shit themselves? Oh what memories. Would have been a great time to buy NVIDIA stocks. I didn't, if you're asking....

It's pretty good but it really didn't follow the instruction in the prompt that Joel Hill is Jack the Insider on the transcript. So that's a minus point. But also, this took fucking ages to generate. It's better than lots of the yankee slop but damn son this took MINUTES.

So they might take over if we are patient or whatever. Enjoy the episode.

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Joel Hill (Jack the Insider) and Hong Kong Jack return for a sprawling episode that tackles two of the biggest stories shaping politics in 2026. The pair open with the jaw-dropping Redbridge poll putting One Nation at 31% of the primary vote — a number that would all but wipe the National Party off the federal map and potentially deliver Anthony Albanese a strengthened majority government by splintering the right. Joel and Jack clash over whether culture-war grievances or material concerns are driving the surge, while drawing historical parallels to Joh for Canberra and the DLP split of the 1950s.

The conversation then crosses hemispheres for a tour through UK chaos: Peter Mandelson's leaked dossier exposing a rudderless No. 10 under Keir Starmer, Nicola Sturgeon's estranged husband pleading guilty to embezzling SNP donations on a surreal shopping spree of Lalique salt shakers, seven Dysons, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock, and a deeply troubling police body-cam incident that has reignited the two-tier policing debate ahead of three critical by-elections.

The centrepiece of the episode is a sober, hour-long deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic and what Australia has refused to learn. The Two Jacks lay out the true death toll (perhaps 22 to 69 million globally), the devastating scale of long COVID, the vaccine rollout failures, the absurdities of hotel quarantine with rubbish bags over heads, and why governments and public health officials are desperate to avoid a Royal Commission. They close by asking whether the next pandemic will meet a population that has permanently lost trust in its leaders — and whether we'll simply repeat the mistakes of both COVID and the Spanish flu.

Sport provides a lighter coda: the Carlton revival under an interim coach, James Hird's awkward candidacy at Essendon, the expanded 48-team World Cup that nobody seems excited about, and a formidable New Zealand Test side taking on England at Lord's.

00:00:25 — Introduction Joel welcomes listeners to Episode 159, recorded 4 June. Today: Australian political news, a check-in on the UK, and a deep dive into the COVID-19 pandemic.

00:01:21 — The Redbridge Poll: One Nation at 31% The AFR's Redbridge poll: One Nation 31%, Labor 28%, LNP 20%, Greens 12%. The two-party preferred is now being calculated as One Nation versus Labor — a seismic shift in how Australian politics is measured.

00:03:12 — Not Just a Protest Vote Jack argues this is real, not a re-run of Hanson's 1990s flash-in-the-pan. The South Australian state election and the Farrah by-election suggest One Nation support is durable. Joel counters that protest votes can be expressed at the ballot box and that Australians are tiring of pluralism.

00:04:09 — If One Nation Succeeds, Labor Wins The cruel irony: One Nation's rise probably delivers Labor government. The National Party could simply disappear. The DLP kept the Coalition in power for decades as an anti-Labor party; One Nation may do the reverse.

00:05:46 — Scrutiny and Splintering Joel notes One Nation's policies are "two-sentence fragments" and motherhood statements. When proper scrutiny arrives, the contradictions will surface. Hanson's parliamentary attendance is as poor as imaginable.

00:08:22 — The Third Rail Jack argues populists succeed because they discuss what polite society won't: immigration, culture wars, welcome to country rituals. The major parties must engage these topics or cede the ground entirely.

00:11:34 — Feeling Unheard The core driver, Jack contends: voters feel sneered at and silenced by mainstream politics. It's not about flag counts, it's about being listened to.

00:13:50 — What Actually Drives Votes Joel pushes back: voting determinants are the household economy, migration, climate change — not culture war trivia. Culture wars "don't amount to a hill of beans" at the ballot box.

00:14:51 — The DLP Parallel Both agree the One Nation phenomenon most closely resembles the DLP split of the 1950s and 60s — a right-wing fracture that delivered Labor government after Labor government.

00:17:18 — The Republic Referendum Lesson Jack recalls the 1999 republic referendum: pro-republicans split between models rather than uniting, scuppering the whole project. Voters will vote their preference even knowing it helps their enemy.

00:19:32 — UK Parallels: Accommodate or Fight? Significant figures in the UK Tory party are debating whether to fight Reform or reach an accommodation. Tony Abbott recently said the Liberal Party won't criticise Pauline Hanson.

00:21:48 — Joh for Canberra Redux Imre Salusinszky's comparison: this is "Joh for Canberra" all over again. But Joel notes Joh's moment lasted months; One Nation's has already lasted years.

00:24:08 — State Election Previews Joel predicts the Victorian state election will be chaotic and peculiar — a government that's been in power too long, an opposition that may not be up to the task, and One Nation peeling votes from safe Labor seats. NSW will give a clearer reading.

00:25:44 — Hanson "Ready to Govern" — from the Senate? Pauline Hanson announced she's ready to govern. Joel asks: shouldn't she contest a lower-house seat first? Jack recalls the only precedent: John Gorton became PM while still a senator, but had to be eased into Kooyong.

00:28:20 — The Mandelson Dossier: Starmer's Empty Suit Jack's read of the leaked Mandelson documents: ministers don't know what the PM wants, there's zero respect or fear of his authority. Starmer comes across as an empty chair. One minister's text: "Every meeting with Labour MPs — it's all about who can we tax to pay benefits to other people."

00:30:50 — Mandelson's Legal Peril Mandelson is under police investigation for misconduct in public office. Could face charges — the seriousness depends on whether it's mere misconduct or genuine bribery for foreign interests.

00:31:49 — The Nicola Sturgeon Saga Her estranged husband has pleaded guilty to embezzling roughly £400,000 in SNP donations. The shopping list: six high-end coffee machines, seven Dyson vacuums, Lalique salt and pepper shakers, Montblanc pens, Swiss watches, an iJag, part of a Volkswagen, and a motorhome with four miles on the clock parked at his 92-year-old mother's house. Nicola claims she "didn't go in the kitchen much."

00:34:20 — The BBC Interview Laura Kuenssberg's forensic interview with Sturgeon — "not quite Prince Andrew, but not much better." Sturgeon has been cleared by Police Scotland, but her reputation, already damaged by the Alex Salmond trial, is now in tatters.

00:35:05 — Will He Go to Prison? £400,000 is a substantial sum. With another £600,000 unaccounted for, a custodial sentence seems likely. The money was ring-fenced for a second independence referendum push.

00:36:50 — Money Laundering or Conspicuous Consumption? Joel wonders if the bizarre purchases — multiple watches on the same day — were an amateur money-laundering attempt: buy goods with SNP funds, sell them quietly for cash.

00:38:23 — UK By-elections: Makerfield Looms Three by-elections on 18 June, including the critical Makerfield contest. Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester's high-profile mayor, is the tepid favourite. Low turnout could help him return to Westminster.

00:39:30 — The Body-Cam Incident A white teenager accused of racially vilifying a Sikh man was stabbed — and police arrested the bleeding victim, not the attacker. Body-cam footage shows the victim saying "I can't breathe, I've been stabbed" while officers dismiss him. Joel calls the footage "just awful."

00:41:22 — Two-Tier Policing Jack traces UK policing's overcorrection: after the Macpherson/Lawrence report, guidelines were rewritten so aggressively that they've produced a pattern of questionable enforcement that devastates community trust — and plays directly into Tommy Robinson's hands.

00:42:08 — NSW Police on Four Corners Joel recommends the harrowing Four Corners investigation: bashings in custody, false arrests, an officer who threw body-cam footage into Sydney Harbour, and two undercover officers jailed for a savage assault. The problem today is general duties policing, not the specialist squads of the 1980s. Some command areas are far worse than others — a leadership failure.

00:44:55 — Victoria Police: Under-Resourced, Not Corrupt Joel shares an anecdote: two divisional vans for 80,000 people in outer-east Melbourne. Tough work being a police officer; even tougher being a good one.

00:45:09 — Why This Matters Joel sets the frame: we parked COVID in 2023 with a hangover but never understood what we'd been through. Today's episode aims to crack that problem.

00:45:51 — The True Death Toll Officially: 7 million dead. But most countries stopped testing and stopped reporting cause-of-death data to the WHO. Using excess mortality, the real toll is between 22 and 69 million — at the high end, exceeding the Spanish flu.

00:47:02 — Long COVID's Shadow Roughly 400 million people globally (6% of the population) have experienced long COVID. In Australia alone, between 200,000 and 500,000 people are living with or have lived with the condition. Second infections can be worse. Emerging links to cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and accelerated dementia.

00:49:43 — The Collective Amnesia Governments worldwide have "a collective embarrassment" about how they handled the pandemic, Jack says. They want it in the history books and forgotten. Joel says this is a grave mistake for public trust — and for public health, given COVID is now a permanent fixture alongside flu season.

00:50:50 — Why Excess Deaths Are the Only Honest Metric All other figures are "kind of made up" because attribution methods vary wildly between countries. Excess deaths remain elevated in Australia and most nations.

00:51:25 — Children and COVID Bobby Kennedy Jr. removed under-18s from government-supported vaccines in the US. Joel argues this is a disastrous move given mounting evidence that childhood COVID infection leads to higher rates of long-term chronic illness.

00:52:47 — Why No Royal Commission? Not just politicians protecting themselves — public health officials and much of the media wanted to avoid scrutiny of their judgments and actions during the pandemic.

00:53:32 — The Media's Abdication Jack watched "a lot" of Daniel Andrews's daily press conferences. Only two journalists ever asked pertinent questions: Rachel Baxendale and Leigh Sales. Nobody asked why curfews, why beach arrests, why the disparate impact on tradies and cafe owners while the "laptop class" actually made money working from home.

00:56:14 — Andrews's Immense Popularity Joel adds context: Andrews was wildly popular at the time, which partly explains the media's deference — though Jack insists that shouldn't have mattered.

00:57:34 — The Curfew Nonsense Curfews were about giving law enforcement the easiest possible environment, Joel says — and should have been acknowledged as such and wound back sooner. Meanwhile, Bondi's wealthy swam en masse while Western Sydney's working-class communities were treated harshly.

00:57:59 — The Vaccine Rollout Failure The Morrison government bet everything on AstraZeneca — the non-mRNA, first-available vaccine. Then rare blood-clotting issues emerged (seven deaths, mainly men aged 40–49). Meanwhile, Australia was left waiting for Pfizer and other mRNA vaccines because no other supply deals had been secured.

00:59:37 — Omicron Breaks the Pandemic's Back The Omicron variant emerged from South Africa: more infectious but far less lethal. Combined with 95%+ vaccination rates among Australians over 18, it effectively ended the acute phase — though at the cost of entrenched mistrust.

01:00:38 — Government Overreach and Broken Trust Jack's core criticism: governments outsourced decision-making to public health officials rather than making political judgments that balanced competing interests. Joel counters that it would have been a "bold move" for politicians with no scientific background to contradict public health advice.

01:02:19 — "Just Let It Rip" Was Never an Option The three countries with the highest COVID mortality — Brazil (highest), United States (second), India (third) — were all led by populist governments that largely refused mandates. Letting it rip was devastating.

01:03:27 — The ADF Quarantine Scandal Scott Morrison refused to allow ADF quarantine facilities to be used for returning travellers. Instead, people were crammed into hotels with gaps under the doors. Joel recalls the "rubbish bags over heads" episode in Victoria — dark green plastic bags as infection control.

01:05:00 — The Inquiry's Recommendations Create a proper Australian CDC. Release expert advice publicly. Better national planning with clear political accountability. And critically: politicians must own the big decisions on freedoms and spending instead of hiding behind experts.

01:06:01 — The Next Pandemic There will be another one. If it's a respiratory, airborne pathogen like COVID, similar circumstances will return. Are we ready? Probably not. Will we close the country again? The economic damage — unemployment hitting 7.5% in 2020 — was enormous, even if it recovered to 3.5% by pandemic's end.

01:08:06 — Who Was Left Behind? The arts community was inexplicably excluded from JobSeeker and JobKeeper. Meanwhile, the "laptop class" working from home effectively got a 15% pay rise by eliminating commuting costs. Bunnings did very well; so did companies that kept JobKeeper without passing it to employees.

01:11:14 — The Human Cost of Lockdowns Public housing towers in Flemington were locked down. Joel recalls one family: an African-Australian single mother with nine children in a two-bedroom commission flat, trapped. Jack calls what happened with schools "disgraceful." But Joel notes the evidence now shows childhood COVID infection has serious long-term health consequences, complicating the retrospective judgment.

01:13:59 — Will We Learn Anything? Jack's bleak prediction: the next pandemic is probably far enough away that we'll take no notice of COVID's lessons and make the same mistakes. Joel agrees — we didn't learn from the Spanish flu a century ago either.

01:15:51 — Malcolm Roberts and Vaccine Misinformation The One Nation senator claims 70,000 Australians died from COVID vaccines — a figure with no evidentiary support, built by misattributing excess deaths. In reality, mRNA technology is now being deployed as a cancer treatment, showing promise against bowel and pancreatic cancers.

01:17:36 — Trust Destroyed If the next pandemic arrives within this generation, governments will face a population that has lost faith. If it takes 50 years, the damage may have faded. Western Australia, meanwhile, locked itself down with negligible deaths and actually loved the isolation — provided the iron ore and LNG ships kept moving.

01:20:37 — The Spanish Flu Echo Joel's closing historical note: Australia's response to the Spanish flu in 1919–1921 was nearly identical to COVID — lockdown disputes, police arresting people for not wearing masks, states fighting the newly created federal Department of Health. The whole thing collapsed into acrimony the moment state rivalries flared. A century later, nothing had changed.

01:21:48 — Federation as Fatal Flaw Jack adds: the three high-mortality COVID countries (US, Brazil, India) share a feature beyond populist leaders — they're all federations where central government power is limited. When "the emperor is far away and the mountains are high," coordinated pandemic response is nearly impossible.

01:23:40 — No Appetite for Truth Jack's final word: nobody wants a proper inquiry. Not politicians, not public health officials, not much of the media. Joel disagrees on the importance — the pandemic's legacy still shapes how Australians think, vote, and trust.

01:27:40 — AFL Coaching Carousel Essendon and Carlton both need permanent coaches. Joel asks: is James Hird the right man for Essendon? Jack: 17 other clubs wouldn't give him an interview, but the Bombers may have backed themselves into a corner where appointing him is the only way out.

01:28:53 — Merit vs Member Sentiment Rowan Connolly's question: would you take James Hird or John Longmire (five grand finals, one premiership, 60%+ win rate)? The answer is obvious on merit — but members and fans want the fairy tale.

01:29:47 — Carlton's Astonishing Revival Three straight wins. Ranked 16th in forward-50 entries a month ago; now second. The game style is unrecognisable — no more bombing the ball to non-existent power forwards. Mitch McGovern's low, flat kick to Patrick Cripps for the match-winner against Geelong was emblematic of the transformation. Seven players aged 21 or younger are now getting games and bringing energy.

01:33:18 — FIFA World Cup 2026: Nobody's Excited Expanded to 48 teams, Scotland are going — and a Scot in his 30s told Jack that neither he nor any of his mates (all doing well financially, normally first on the plane) have any interest. Ticket prices are "extraordinary." The final is at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey — which Jack describes as "Waverley on steroids, but even more bleak."

01:36:08 — Australia's Draw Socceroos face Turkey first up, then the United States. Jack suggests marketing it as "Gallipoli Round Two." Spain are favourites; England, Brazil, and Germany are in the chasing pack.

01:37:06 — Cricket: England v New Zealand, First Test at Lord's Joel runs through New Zealand's likely top seven — Latham, Conway, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell — noting the first four have all made Test double-centuries. "Just about the best first six in Test cricket." With O'Rourke's express pace and Henry's quality, this is a formidable Black Caps side.

01:38:40 — Stump Speech & Next Week Listener mail (including an "exposé of who Jack is") held over for next episode. For the record: Hong Kong Jack's CV includes HSC at Assumption College Kilmore, a stint as a carpenter, a law degree from Melbourne University, stints at Holding Redlich and Slater & Gordon, work as a litigation and immigration lawyer, and an appointment to the Refugee Review Tribunal as a federal cabinet appointee.

01:40:39 — Outro Joel thanks listeners for hanging in for an extra ten minutes. Back next week.

The Two Jacks is recorded weekly. Send your questions and feedback to the show.

This summary was brought to you by NVIDIA Nemotron 3 super. What's that, you ask? I don't really know. It sounds a lot like the other models. It's just another dumb clanker serving you the slop you crave. The timeline is bizarrely detailed. You could probably just read that and skip the show. This model is stupid as it does the thing dumb models do and assume that Jack is me because of the way the transcript goes DESPITE MY PROMPTING anyway I am leaving it in there to show clankers are not going to replace us yet.

SORRY I FORGOT TO UPLOAD THIS - BETTER LATE THAN NEVER?

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In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) and Hong Kong Jack tear into the Albanese government’s deeply unpopular budget, the polling fallout, and Labor’s failure to sell hard tax changes on housing, trusts and capital gains. They dig into intergenerational equity, how negative gearing and CGT discounts have locked younger Australians out of home ownership, and why the government refuses to “own the lie” on broken tax promises.

The Jacks then turn to the NDIS blowout and ask whether the scheme now needs to be torn down and rebuilt from first principles to define who is genuinely eligible and where scarce disability money should go. The main course is the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion: what its narrow terms of reference miss, why Jewish kids still need security to go to school, how campus politics and parts of the progressive left have turned openly hostile to Jews, and why universities and the ABC are failing basic tests of impartiality and safety. They round things out with a postponed look at Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK, Arsenal’s title, State of Origin squads, an AFL reset at Carlton, the Tasmanian Devils project, and why pokies – not punters on the nags – are still the real engine of problem gambling in Australia.

I’ve shifted each timestamp forward by 25 seconds to allow for your theme.

• 00:00 – Two Jacks back on deck, Hong Kong plans
• Jack the Insider (Joel Hill) opens the show, checks in with Hong Kong Jack, and talks about heading to Hong Kong in December to speak at a Carbine Club lunch and maybe record from Jack’s pub.
• 00:50 – What’s on today’s menu
• Outline of the episode: the federal budget and polling, the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion, plus (time permitting) Keir Starmer’s woes in the UK and, as always, a serve of sport.
• 01:20 – Budget reception and grim polling
• The Jacks walk through Morgan, Newspoll and Demos numbers: Labor’s primary stuck in the high 20s–low 30s, One Nation uncomfortably high, and more than half of Australians expecting to be personally worse off under the budget.
• 02:20 – What really matters in a budget: hurt vs “right thing to do”
• Hong Kong Jack argues the key test isn’t whether people feel worse off, but whether they think the budget is the right thing to do, and how that plays into the “battle of ideas” between Labor/Greens and the Coalition/One Nation.
• 03:10 – Intergenerational pitch that never landed
• Jack the Insider dissects Labor’s attempt to sell long‑term intergenerational reforms on housing, negative gearing and CGT to millennials and Gen X/Y, and why measures that don’t bite until the late 2020s mean nothing to a renter trying to scrape a deposit together now.
• 04:20 – Media honeymoon over and Labor’s messaging shambles
• Discussion of how the government misread the media mood, looked stunned when formerly friendly outlets turned on the budget, and why you must expect pushback whenever you hurt someone with fiscal reforms.
• 05:20 – Housing as the core fracture in Australian society
• The Jacks talk about the structural divide between asset‑rich home owners and shut‑out younger cohorts, with home ownership among 30‑ and 40‑somethings collapsing while overall ownership rates barely move.
• 06:20 – Trusts, capital vs labour and the “death duty” scare
• They go into the new tax treatment of trusts, how few people actually have family trusts, exemptions for farms and small business, and Tanya Plibersek’s bungled breakfast TV defence that let the “death duties” scare run wild.
• 07:20 – Keating rides again: capital too lightly taxed
• Paul Keating’s intervention is unpacked: the argument that the Howard‑era 50% CGT discount helped push house prices from nine times income to 16, and that income is over‑taxed while capital is under‑taxed.
• 08:20 – You can’t sell reform if you won’t own the lie
• The Jacks compare Albanese’s handling of broken tax promises with the Hockey/Abbott 2014 “horror budget”, arguing the only way through is to admit circumstances changed, own the lie and explain why you’re breaking it.
• 09:25 – Lessons from the 2014 Hockey–Abbott fiasco
• They revisit how that budget enraged almost every demographic, how badly it diverged from public opinion despite elite commentary cheer‑squads, and how it helped end both Tony Abbott’s and Joe Hockey’s careers.
• 10:40 – Can this government reset its pitch?
• Talk turns to what Labor must do now: scrap the ill‑judged intergenerational “marketing”, articulate clearly that the aim is to rebalance tax from workers to asset holders, and craft a story that can actually be sold.
• 11:25 – NDIS: who’s in, who’s out and can it be saved?
• With the NDIS projected to save tens of billions over the forward estimates, Jack the Insider worries about vulnerable people being turfed off the scheme and the political heat that will follow.
• 12:15 – Defining disability and rationing scarce care
• They debate whether the scheme should prioritise those with severe physical or cognitive impairments, the difficulty of diagnosing conditions like ME/CFS and long COVID, and the unfairness of some mildly affected participants getting full supports while bedridden patients miss out.
• 13:20 – “Chuck it out and start again?”
• Hong Kong Jack argues that the only way to fix the NDIS may be to go back to first principles: clearly define eligibility, decide what taxpayers can afford, and accept that these are inherently political choices, not just technocratic ones.
• 14:00 – Enter the Royal Commission into Anti‑Semitism and Social Cohesion
• The show moves to the new Royal Commission: why the Albanese government was dragged into it, public misconceptions about royal commissions as hanging courts, and what they realistically can and can’t fix.
• 14:45 – Royal commissions: shining a light, not magic wands
• The Jacks compare this inquiry with past ones on institutional child abuse and banking, noting how many victims and consumers were left dissatisfied even as some important truths were dragged into the open.
• 15:30 – Terms of reference and an immediate blind spot
• They read through the Royal Commission’s focus areas – antisemitism drivers, law enforcement and security responses, the Bondi attack, social cohesion – and point out that live criminal proceedings severely limit any examination of the Bondi killer and his father.
• 16:30 – ASIO, counter‑terror cuts and missed warnings
• Jack the Insider notes reports that ASIO cut counter‑terrorism to its lowest level since 9/11 and questions how that could be justified given far‑right activity, Islamist threats and general extremism.
• 17:25 – From “terror hotlines” to Bondi
• He recounts his own experiences calling the National Security Hotline: indifference before the Old Parliament House fire versus a swift response after the Wieambilla police killings, and what that says about how inconsistent the system can be.
• 18:30 – Private Jewish security and a ball dropped by NSW Police
• The Jacks highlight reports that Jewish community security raised concerns with police about the Hanukkah festival at Bondi being a vulnerable target, yet only a handful of officers were rostered locally on the day of the attack.
• 19:30 – What should the Commission actually deliver?
• Discussion of how much of this will be buried in redacted security recommendations versus visible cultural change, and whether the measure of success is Jewish kids being able to attend school or synagogue without armed guards or harassment at university.
• 20:25 – Is anti‑Semitism worse than any time in the last 50 years?
• Both Jacks agree that anti‑Semitism has surged, then tease out what’s driving it on the hard right and increasingly in progressive circles.
• 21:00 – From neo‑Nazis to “global puppeteer” tropes
• They explain how anti‑Jewish conspiracy theories about control of banking and politics have spread far beyond small neo‑Nazi cells into broader right‑wing ecosystems, amplified by US media figures who frame Benjamin Netanyahu as a world puppeteer.
• 21:55 – The progressive left’s turn against Jews
• Hong Kong Jack describes how the most progressive parts of parties like UK Labour were once full of Jewish members and staff, and how those same spaces are now inhospitable or openly hostile.
• 22:40 – Being Jewish does not equal supporting Netanyahu
• Jack the Insider tells the story of a Jewish oncologist friend in Sydney being accused on social media of “supporting killing babies” simply for trying to explain that many Jews detest Netanyahu and don’t back the war in Gaza.
• 23:35 – Progressive Jews feel politically homeless
• The Jacks talk about liberal Jews who marched for every progressive cause now finding their neighbours tearing down hostage posters and abusing them, and how emotionally disorienting that break has been.
• 24:30 – Campus culture: free thought or intimidation?
• They turn to universities, where Jewish academics and students are hiding kippot and Star of David jewellery as staff and student activists target them under the banner of Palestine solidarity.
• 25:15 – Universities failed the basic test: safety
• Referencing Greg Craven, they argue universities like Melbourne have utterly failed to keep Jewish students and staff safe and that Education Minister Jason Clare is right to tie some funding to universities’ performance on this.
• 26:05 – Writers’ festivals, awards and performative politics
• The Jacks briefly digress into Miles Franklin and writers’ festivals, mocking the inflated status of “scribblers” and the way literary events have become echo‑chambers for fashionable political positions, including a strong anti‑Israel tilt.
• 27:05 – ABC bias, diversity bureaucracy and the West as villain
• They discuss claims that the ABC has an institutional bias against Israel, the way its culture tilts anti‑Western generally, and how a hyper‑bureaucratic diversity regime has replaced clear editorial judgement.
• 28:15 – Diversity box‑ticking and absurd examples
• From Danish filmmakers being grilled about casting in a 1750 Denmark period piece to arguments about race in a new Odyssey adaptation, they skewer shallow diversity policing that obsesses over skin colour while missing substance.
• 29:05 – Jewish history: persecution on repeat
• Jack the Insider places today’s situation in a long arc – from pogroms to Poland–Lithuania’s historic tolerance, to the near‑eradication of Polish Jewry in the Holocaust and the emptying out of Jewish communities across the Arab world.
• 30:15 – The modern diaspora: Middle East to Shanghai
• They note surviving Jewish communities in Iran and the historic Jewish community in Shanghai, including refugees from the Russian Revolution and how some of those families later ended up in Sydney.
• 31:00 – What the Royal Commission can’t fix
• The Jacks stress that the inquiry will not “solve” anti‑Semitism, racism or Islamophobia, and that debates over immigration – often weaponised by racists and opportunists like Pauline Hanson – will continue regardless.
• 31:50 – Treat people equally, drop loaded labels?
• Hong Kong Jack argues terms like “anti‑Semitism” and “Islamophobia” can bog debate down in definitions and that the better approach is to apply one standard of treatment for all minorities and majorities.
• 32:30 – Immigration, xenophobia and political opportunism
• They revisit African “crime gangs” rhetoric under Dutton and Morrison as an example of immigration concerns being used as a vehicle for xenophobic politics, while acknowledging there are legitimate policy questions about migration levels.
• 33:20 – The ABC and fear of making decisions
• The Jacks see the ABC’s huge manuals and committees as a symptom of executives who won’t make hard editorial calls and instead hide behind process, leaving real bias and safety issues unresolved.
• 34:15 – Royal Commission yardstick: kids and campuses
• They circle back to the Commission’s ultimate test: whether Jewish kids can attend school and university without harassment or needing a private army of guards, even if that goal is a long way off.
• 35:10 – UK politics teaser: Keir Starmer on the rack
• The promised Starmer and UK Labour segment is postponed to next week, with a quick note on how unpopular he’s become and how leadership polling improves when pollsters insert alternative names like Andy Burnham.
• 36:05 – Sport: Arsenal’s title and Man City’s stumble
• Sport segment begins. The Jacks celebrate Arsenal wrapping up the Premier League after Manchester City’s draw with Bournemouth and talk up Arsenal’s chances in the Champions League final.
• 36:55 – Aston Villa’s big year and the money gap
• Aston Villa’s Europa League win over Freiburg is praised, with a note on the massive wage‑bill gulf between the clubs and the broader point that money helps but doesn’t always guarantee silverware.
• 37:50 – Relegation scrap and wage‑bill madness
• They look at West Ham, Spurs and Everton in the relegation battle, and at Liverpool’s huge salary spend versus their likely fifth‑place finish to show that cheque‑book football has its limits.
• 38:40 – NRL: Origin squads and surprise omissions
• Over to rugby league: New South Wales debutants, James Tedesco’s recall, Queensland’s squad, and the notable omission of Rhys Walsh despite his past Origin heroics.
• 39:25 – Penrith cruising, Broncos smashed and the Dolphins rise
• They run through club form – Penrith purring, Warriors flogging the Broncos, the Dolphins and Knights impressing – and how that shapes the season.
• 40:05 – “Magic Round” and marketing guff
• The Jacks puzzle over the “Magic Round” concept, comparing it to the AFL’s Gather Round and questioning who actually wants to sit through four games at a ground in one day.
• 40:45 – AFL: Hawthorn’s Launceston fortress and the coming Devils
• Discussion of Hawthorn’s strong record in Launceston, the economic benefits to northern Tasmania, and the AFL’s decision to clear the decks for the new Tassie Devils to represent the whole state.
• 41:35 – Carlton’s first‑up win after sacking Voss
• They unpack Carlton’s win under interim coach Josh Fraser, the myth of the “new coach bounce”, and how much was actually driven by younger players stepping up and Patrick Cripps taking over late.
• 42:30 – New kids, Parkside hard men and a trip to Port
• Praise for Ollie Hollands, Jack Ison and other young Blues, a nostalgic nod to brutal Parkside days in the Ammos, and a realistic assessment of Carlton’s next test away to Port Adelaide.
• 43:25 – Richmond v Essendon: spoon bowl
• Preview and framing of Richmond–Essendon as a likely wooden‑spoon decider, with both clubs in different stages of rebuild and pain.
• 44:00 – Geelong v Sydney and reinventing on the run
• The Jacks preview the big game at GMHBA, note Geelong’s outstanding home record and ability to regenerate with pacey youngsters, and talk about Tyson Stengle’s return and Geelong’s track record with troubled players.
• 45:05 – Racing, sports betting and the real gambling scourge
• They read and agree with a listener comment that the problem‑gambling spotlight has been cleverly shifted onto racing and sports betting, while pokies – the main driver of harm – skate by.
• 46:00 – WA vs NSW: two natural experiments in pokies
• Using WA’s “casino only” pokies model versus NSW pubs and clubs, they highlight data showing problem gambling rates under 1% in WA versus around 5% in NSW.
• 46:45 – Why pokies wreck people faster than the punt
• They explain how continuous‑play machines let you burn through cash in seconds, whereas racing forces a pause between bets and makes you consciously choose the next wager.
• 47:25 – JFK gag and conspiracy culture
• Hong Kong Jack closes with a joke about a JFK conspiracy theorist meeting God and still believing “it goes higher than I thought”, segueing briefly into Jack the Insider’s view that Lee Harvey Oswald was indeed the gunman.
• 48:15 – Wrap‑up and call for listener topics
• The episode finishes with thanks, a reminder that Jack the Insider is Jack and Hong Kong Jack is Jack, a promise to tackle Keir Starmer properly next week, and an invite for listeners to send in topics via Twitter and email.

Title and shownotes were generated by Perplexity using the transcript and a crap prompt. Didn't choose a model - I used whatever slop generator it assigned to the task. Titles were crap so I pasted two together. Enjoy!

Yes, 157 is missing. I forgot to upload it and will do it now. I need to focus on my exam though so TCRP is coming soon.

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In this episode of The Two Jacks, Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack dig into the political fallout from the Albanese/Chalmers budget, the trust problem hanging over governments since the pandemic, and the growing noise around housing, tax, and capital flight. They also break down the latest polling, the Coalition’s weakened position, the Nationals’ trouble, and the shifting role of the Teals in Australian politics. The conversation then turns to the United Kingdom, where Sir Keir Starmer is under pressure and Andy Burnham looms as a possible challenger, before finishing with a wide-ranging chat on cars, distraction, US politics, and a moving tribute to Neil Danaher.

• 00:25 — Welcome to the show; Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack kick things off.
• 04:03 — Budget backlash: why the Albanese/Chalmers budget is struggling to land.
• 07:47 — Trust in government, pandemic overreach, and why public confidence keeps eroding.
• 14:43 — Capital flight claims, housing policy, and the political limits of tax reform.
• 19:03 — Polling watch: Labor, the Coalition, One Nation, and what the numbers may really mean.
• 62:38 — UK politics heats up: Sir Keir Starmer, Andy Burnham, Tony Blair, and Labour’s identity crisis.
• 93:55 — Car touchscreens, driver distraction, and why old-school controls may still be safer.
• 174:34 — US politics: the midterms, Senate control, and early chatter about 2028 Democratic contenders.
• 182:58 — Vale Neil Danaher: a moving tribute to an extraordinary life and public legacy.
• 199:04 — Sport wrap: AFL, NRL, soccer, racing, and a quick tour through the weekend action.

I know you are all hanging out to hear about this and the judgment still hasn't dropped on the NSW Caselaw website (though I hear it's doing the rounds) so here it is. It's really very unedited.

In my submission I propose that this episode would have been better if I had

1. Prepared a better document and read the judgment twice
2. Not had several drinks at the RAC before recording
3. Took the time to edit it
4. Actually researched the things we were inevitably going to discuss

But that takes time and time is of the essence. So here it is.

I go off on a bit of a ramble about how La Vey satanism is basically edgy libertarianism but I don't really know what I am talking about.

Would be keen to look into what the OTO is in a future episode and why cookers are scared of it. I mean, they are scared of everything and the OTO does sound really spooky if you are an idiot.

Rod keeps the show on topic well, bless him.

Anyway, the episode is about the defo trial and I figure you want it now instead of later - at least Rod was sober.

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I also forgot to do the CBCo plug at the start - this is what happens when you don't make a proper document. So I want to assure listeners that much like George Soros, the fine folks at CBCo Brewing are still giving us (me) free beers in exchange for dog like loyalty. While George still claims the cheque is in the mail - and I'm starting to wonder - CBCo are filling our cup (my cup) regularly. We love them. CRP10 probably still works. Man their IPA is really, really good.

Enjoy!