The Value Investing Podcast with Fexingo: Buffett, Graham, and Long-Term Stock Picking

A Moody's report warns that 'unprecedented' AI capital spending threatens the credit quality of Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. Lucas and Luna explore how value investors evaluate such massive capex programs: looking at incremental returns on invested capital, competitive moat durability, and what happens when spending outpaces cash flow. They discuss real-world numbers—Meta's infrastructure buildout, Amazon's fulfillment-to-AI pivot—and why a value lens isn't reflexively bearish but demands a clear line of sight to earnings power. This episode gives you a practical framework for judging any company making big, risky bets.

#AI #CapitalExpenditure #CreditQuality #Moodys #Amazon #Meta #Alphabet #ValueInvesting #ROIC #CashFlow #Moat #Intangibles #EarningsPower #CapexAnalysis #InvestmentFramework #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness

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With oil prices surging past $100 and the S&P 500 down 0.7% for the week, Lucas and Luna explore how value investors should think about commodity price exposure in their portfolios. Using ExxonMobil's 6.5% five-day gain as a springboard, they discuss the difference between operating leverage in commodity producers and the hidden sensitivity in seemingly unrelated stocks. They walk through a practical framework: understanding a company's cost structure, margin sensitivity to input prices, and whether management hedges or speculates. No hot takes on where oil goes next — just a durable framework for evaluating commodity risk that works whether crude is at $50 or $150.

#ValueInvesting #CommodityExposure #ExxonMobil #OilPrices #InvestingFramework #MarginSensitivity #OperatingLeverage #HedgingStrategy #CycleAnalysis #CommodityRisk #EnergyStocks #PortfolioManagement #BusinessCycles #CostStructure #InputPrices #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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With oil surging past $100 a barrel and the Fed signaling potential rate hikes, Lucas and Luna dive into why value investors need to understand how commodity price exposure affects their portfolio. They analyze how energy giants like ExxonMobil and Chevron have performed over the past week, discuss the JPMorgan report showing a jump in AI-themed ETFs, and explore the concept of embedded commodity risk in seemingly unrelated sectors. Using the recent oil rally as a case study, they explain how to evaluate a company's sensitivity to input costs or revenue tailwinds from raw materials, and why ignoring commodity exposure can lead to nasty surprises. A must-listen for value investors looking to refine their margin-of-safety analysis in an inflationary environment.

#ValueInvesting #CommodityRisk #OilPrices #ExxonMobil #Chevron #JPMorgan #AIETFs #FedRateHike #Inflation #PortfolioManagement #EnergySector #RawMaterials #MarginOfSafety #EconomicIndicators #Finance #Investing #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Episode 128 of The Value Investing Podcast with Fexingo dives into spin-offs as a deep-value hunting ground. Lucas and Luna break down why spun-off companies often trade at a discount to intrinsic value, using the recent separation of GE Vernova from GE as a real-world case. They walk through the mechanics of a spin-off, the forced-selling effect that depresses initial prices, and the key metrics—like pro forma financials and management incentives—that value investors use to separate winners from value traps. With the S&P 500 around 7,500 and value ETFs like IWD and VTV showing mixed signals, the hosts explain why 2026 offers a particularly fertile environment for spin-off investing. They also touch on how to identify spin-offs with strong free cash flow yields and insider buying post-separation. This episode is packed with practical screening tips and behavioral insights for anyone looking to find mispriced opportunities in corporate restructurings.

#SpinOffs #ValueInvesting #GEVernova #GeneralElectric #CorporateRestructuring #DeepValue #IntrinsicValue #FreeCashFlowYield #InsiderBuying #ForcedSelling #ProFormaFinancials #ManagementIncentives #IWD #VTV #Business #Finance #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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Value investing isn't just about low price-to-earnings ratios or net-nets. In this episode of The Value Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna examine one of the most reliable metrics for identifying bargain stocks: free cash flow yield. Using current market data — including ExxonMobil's recent 5.8% weekly gain and the S&P 500 sitting at 7,499 — they explain why cash generation matters more than accounting earnings. Lucas walks through a real-world example from the energy sector, while Luna highlights why free cash flow yield can signal safety in a market where the Dow is above 52,000 but many stocks look stretched. They also discuss the pitfalls: capital-intensive businesses, cyclical cash flows, and the risk of ignoring growth. If you're a value investor looking for a durable edge in the second half of 2026, this episode offers a practical framework for using free cash flow yield without falling into common traps.

#ValueInvesting #FreeCashFlowYield #FCFYield #StockPicking #ExxonMobil #EnergyStocks #CashFlow #ValueTrap #BenjaminGraham #WarrenBuffett #S&P500 #DowJones #InvestingStrategy #LongTermInvesting #Finance #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #Podcast

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In this episode of The Value Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore Warren Buffett's concept of owner earnings—a more accurate measure of a company's true earning power than reported net income. Using Chevron as a live example, they walk through how to calculate owner earnings by adjusting for maintenance capex, and explain why the metric matters for estimating intrinsic value. With energy stocks like Chevron and ExxonMobil surging over 5% in the past week amid rising geopolitical tensions, understanding cash-flow reality is more important than ever. Lucas shares a practical shortcut: compare a company's cumulative depreciation to its capex over five years to spot whether reported earnings are real or illusory. The hosts also discuss why owner earnings can be a red flag for capital-intensive businesses. Plus, a brief, organic mention of how listener support keeps the podcast ad-free. No fluff, no pitches—just a sharp, actionable tool for long-term stock pickers.

#ValueInvesting #WarrenBuffett #OwnerEarnings #Chevron #ExxonMobil #CashFlow #IntrinsicValue #Depreciation #Capex #EnergyStocks #CapitalAllocation #LongTermInvesting #Finance #BusinessPodcast #FexingoBusiness #LucasAndLuna #StockPicking #EarningsQuality

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Lucas and Luna dive into why the annual shareholder letter is one of the most underrated tools in a value investor's kit. Using Warren Buffett's latest Berkshire Hathaway letter as a case study — and contrasting it with Jamie Dimon's recent warning about market risks — they break down the three specific things to look for: capital allocation philosophy, candid admission of mistakes, and long-term thinking under pressure. They also touch on how energy stocks like Exxon and Chevron have surged 5% this week amid rising geopolitical tensions, and what that says about reading management's tone versus the market's mood. If you've ever skimmed a letter and felt like you missed something, this episode gives you a practical checklist.

#ShareholderLetter #ValueInvesting #WarrenBuffett #BerkshireHathaway #JamieDimon #CapitalAllocation #LongTermThinking #AnnualReport #IntrinsicValue #ManagementQuality #EnergyStocks #ExxonMobil #Chevron #GeopoliticalRisk #InvestmentResearch #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #Finance

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In Episode 124 of The Value Investing Podcast with Fexingo, Lucas and Luna break down the price-to-sales ratio — a metric often overlooked by value investors who default to P/E or book value. They explain why P/S can be a powerful tool for spotting turnarounds, analyzing high-growth unprofitable companies, and avoiding value traps. Using real-world examples like Pfizer (PFE) and Chevron (CVX), they show how P/S reveals revenue stability and hidden value. Lucas argues that in a market where the S&P 500 is down over 1% in the past week and energy stocks are bucking the trend, P/S helps investors separate cyclical noise from structural opportunity. Luna challenges him on the limitations of the metric, especially for financials and companies with thin margins. The episode includes a practical framework for when to use P/S instead of P/E, and a warning about revenue manipulation. No hype, no hot takes — just a clear, actionable guide to one of Graham's lesser-known tools.

#ValueInvesting #PriceToSales #StockPicking #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #Finance #Investing #BenjaminGraham #TurnaroundStocks #Pfizer #Chevron #EnergyStocks #Market2026 #S&P500 #FinancialAnalysis #BusinessPodcast #Podcast #ValueTrap

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Lucas and Luna explore why capital allocation is the hidden edge for value investors in mid-2026. Using today's market backdrop — with the S&P 500 down 1.3% over the past week and the tech-heavy NASDAQ off 2.3% — they examine how companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron are deploying cash differently than their peers. Lucas breaks down the three key capital allocation decisions: reinvest, return, or acquire. They discuss why buyback yield matters more than dividend growth in this environment, and how investors can spot management teams that are actually creating value. The hosts also touch on the Capital One-Discover deal as a cautionary tale. Specific, actionable, and grounded in today's data.

#CapitalAllocation #ValueInvesting #LucasAndLuna #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast #ExxonMobil #Chevron #CapitalOne #Discover #BuybackYield #DividendGrowth #StockBuybacks #ManagementQuality #ROIC #Finance #Investing #LongTermValue #2026

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In this episode of The Value Investing Podcast, Lucas and Luna explore a surprising opportunity in brick-and-mortar retail. With the S&P 500 down 0.8% over the past five days and the Russell 2000 up 0.3%, value stocks are diverging from growth. The hosts examine how retailers like Target and Walmart are trading at single-digit earnings multiples despite generating strong free cash flow. They discuss the concept of 'retail despair' as a contrarian signal, using the example of a regional grocer that recently reported a 15% year-over-year increase in same-store sales yet trades at just 8 times earnings. Lucas explains how to use the price-to-sales ratio and enterprise value-to-EBITDA to find bargains in unloved sectors. Luna challenges him on the threat from Amazon, and Lucas counters with data on omnichannel investments. The episode includes a detailed walkthrough of one retailer's balance sheet, showing $2 billion in net cash and a 4% dividend yield. Perfect for investors looking for deep value beyond tech and finance.

#ValueInvesting #RetailStocks #Contrarian #DeepValue #PriceToSales #EnterpriseValue #EBITDA #FreeCashFlow #DividendYield #Target #Walmart #RegionalGrocer #Omnichannel #StockPicking #Finance #Business #FexingoBusiness #BusinessPodcast

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