RR The Wire 2130Z December 1, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 213001Z DEC 23

ICOD: 200001Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: GAZA CEASEFIRE HAS BROKEN. TENSIONS REMAIN IN NORTHERN BRAZIL.

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-International Events-

Middle East: In Gaza, the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas has been broken. It is unclear as which side began hostilities first (or if the deadline was reached), as both sides launched nearly simultaneous attacks. Hamas has conducted substantial rocket attacks in the North, with Israel conducting substantial airstrikes IVO the Rafah border crossing. Attacks from Hezbollah in Lebanon continue as well. Due to the intensity of the conflict, humanitarian aid shipments into Gaza via the Rafah crossing have stopped for the time being.

Europe: In Russia, Vladimir Putin signs decree increasing the total size of the AFRF by 170,000. AC: This is not a deployment or mobilization, but rather an increase in the standing size of the Russian military. Currently Russia’s military is comprised of roughly 1.3 million service members. This move comes three weeks after Russia’s (and NATO’s) formal withdrawal from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the treaty intended to limit the numbers of troops in Europe at the height of the Cold War.

South America: Brazil continues to bolster defenses along the border with Venezuela amid high tensions in the region. AC: Limited reports on social media indicate Brazil has moved forces into a salient north of Boa Vista. Due to terrain limitations and the access of roads, a Venezuelan land-based invasion of Guyana (if it were to happen) could be conducted via Brazil’s territory.

-Homefront-

GA: Local reporting indicates a woman has possibly attempted to self-immolate outside the Israeli Consulate in Atlanta. NFI ATT. AC: Though a currently developing event, initial reports indicate the woman was wearing/holding a Palestinian flag, suggesting the motive for the incident as being linked to the current conflict in the Middle East.

-Analyst Comments-

In the Middle East, Israel has almost certainly made good use of the ceasefire to continue SIGINT collection efforts within Gaza. However, it is unclear as to how effective this intelligence gathering would have been as Hamas militants clearly understand Israel’s superior technical intelligence capability. As a result, airstrikes are likely to be intense as targeting efforts catch up to the intelligence picture.

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Analyst: S2A

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