RR The Wire 2230Z December 22, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 223022Z DEC 23

ICOD: 213022Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: CONFLICT CONTINUES IN RED SEA. DOMESTIC U.S. POLITICS REMAINS TUMULTUOUS.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: Tensions remain between the allies forming a maritime protection force in the Red Sea. Operation PROSPERITY GUARDIAN is the multi-national Task Force being led by the U.S. Navy to provide security for ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. France, having initially agreed to take part and commit forces, has broken from the Task Force reportedly due to poor leadership and lack of organization. France will only be providing maritime security for French-flagged ships ATT. AC: This crisis has not only highlighted leadership problems within the U.S. DoD, but also the enduring problems within the US Navy’s Littoral Combat Ship (LCS) program. The LCS vessels produced in this program were designed from the keel up with this exact mission in mind, but following decades of scandal, very few of them are functional. So far, only traditional Aegis support (via DDGs and CGs) has provided protection for vessels in the Red Sea. However, as OPN PROSPERITY GUARDIAN has not really gotten underway yet, the level of support the US Navy can provide in the region is not clear. Commercial shipping companies, either unwilling to wait for the US Navy to coordinate defenses, or lacking faith in this operation altogether, have continued to re-route ships around the Cape of Good Hope.

-Homefront-

USA: The recent scandal surrounding the removal of candidates from primary ballots has widened. Following the removal of Donald Trump from Colorado’s Republican primary ballot, several conservative-majority states have threatened to remove Joe Biden from their ballots. Several Democrat-run states have already removed Democrat candidates from their ballots, only allowing one candidate (Joe Biden) to run in their primary elections.

New York: A propane truck crashed into a railroad bridge in Glenville, resulting in a large explosion and subsequent fire. The driver remains hospitalized for severe burns. Initial reporting indicates the truck may have been over height for the bridge it was passing under.

-Analyst Comments-

It is difficult to determine how the situation will shake out regarding ballots. Right now, there is a lot of talk, but few actual documents to examine to arrive at a definitive analysis. It is not uncommon for state-level party leadership to ban certain candidates from running under their own party, but this year the number of Democrat-run states that have only allowed Biden to run under their banner seems higher. Likewise, the removal (or blocking in some way) of Republican candidates from running due to eligibility being removed via a Supreme Court decision is unheard of. The potential for divisions between states (and more importantly, state agencies) could lead to more serious flashpoints than standard civil unrest.

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Analyst: S2A

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