RR The Wire 2200Z December 29, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220029Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210029Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: USS BATAAN TRANSITS INTO MED. ELECTORAL INFLUENCING OPERATIONS CONTINUE IN THE U.S.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: The USS BATAAN and USS CARTER HALL have transited north through the Suez Canal into the Mediterranean Sea, and will reform as a full ARG. As a reminder, these vessels were deployed for counter-piracy operations in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden in direct response to Yemeni targeting. AC: These vessels, while technically not operating as a full ARG, were in effect acting as such over the past few weeks. As the ARG is one of the more flexible unit structures in the military, one of the main standard missions for U.S. Marines onboard these vessels is to provide onboard security teams for merchant vessels passing through high-risk areas, if the situation calls for it. This is a long-standing mission set, and one that even China has routinely employed themselves for over a decade as part of their enduring counter-piracy mission in the Gulf of Aden. The departure of the BATAAN rules this out as a COA for countering the threats in the region. The only security missions provided by the U.S. Navy during this crisis have involved missile defense.

-Homefront-

USA: Events regarding ballots continue as the Maine Secretary of State unilaterally removes Trump from their state’s primary ballot. This follows Colorado re-admitting Trump to their state’s primary ballot. Several conservative-led states have threatened to remove Biden from their state’s primary ballots, though it is not yet clear as to how any of these moves will actually work out.

Analyst Comments: At the risk of laying unnecessary criticism on the forces involved, the USS BATAAN leaving theatre at a high-risk juncture does not fit with the U.S. Navy’s mission of power projection and deterrence, and provides a morale boost for Yemeni forces, who have already interpreted this move as both a victory, and as confirmation that the U.S. will not be conducting any amphibious operations within Yemen. Allowing credit where credit is due, the fleet of DDGs still O/S in the region continue to engage Yemeni drones and cruise missiles.

In the U.S. electoral shenanigans will likely continue well into the new year, but at the moment it’s not possible to determine how this situation will shake out. Until concrete actions are undertaken, the claims being made are just talk. Virtually no one is under the impression that legitimacy will be a factor in the 2024 election season, but the recent battles regarding primary ballots will likely be used as a jumping off point for more serious actions later in the year.

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Analyst: S2A

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