RR The Wire 2200Z December 30, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 220030Z DEC 23

ICOD: 210030Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: UNREST CONTINUES IN EUROPE. SHIPPING REMAINS STAGNANT IN RED SEA.

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-International Events-

Europe: Local authorities in many nations have substantially increased their threat postures in response to threats to New Year’s Eve events. Police in Paris have established significant security protocols as pro-Palestine demonstrations are expected to disrupt public gatherings. Similar efforts are underway in Germany as local authorities claim to have received credible threats to the Cologne Cathedral on New Year’s Eve. In London today local demonstrations deteriorated into civil unrest. AC: Throughout the U.K. much of the unrest seen is no longer accurately described as strictly “pro-Palestinian”. Many of the riots do not have the flavor of being affiliated with the Palestinian cause. For instance, the riots in London today were attended by Eritrean, Ethiopian, and Somali illegal immigrants, who began fighting amongst each other regarding recent political events in these nations.

Red Sea/HOA: Yemen continues to target commercial vessels allegedly affiliated with Israel. The U.S. Navy continues to report daily interceptions of cruise missiles and drones. As some vessels have possibly turned off their AIS transponders for security purposes, it’s difficult to determine how many vessels are indeed transiting the Red Sea again. However, it is clear that traffic through the region has not returned to normal levels.

Analyst Comments:

Though very little information remains public regarding specific threats, the recent history of disruptions of Christmas events throughout western Europe and the U.S. corroborates the theory that New Year’s celebrations will also be targets for demonstrations which may turn violent. As western nations import immigrants at astonishing rates, the importation of far-flung conflicts is inevitable. As such, categorizing everything from peaceful protests to deliberate insurgent attacks is not easy. At a minimum, increased police presence is expected at most public events due to the wildly variable threat environment. 

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Analyst: S2A

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