RR The Wire 1800Z December 4, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 180004Z DEC 23

ICOD: 173004Z DEC 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: MERCHANT SHIPPING ATTACKED IN RED SEA. U.S. PLEDGES TO BAN ALL COAL POWER BY 2055.

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-International Events-

Middle East: Significant developments have occurred following multiple attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea. Several commercial vessels have been attacked by possible ASCMs and kamikaze drones (of Yemeni origin) over the past 24 hours. The USS CARNEY (DDG-64) successfully engaged at least THREE ASCM's and multiple kamikaze drones during the attack, while responding to the multiple distress calls from merchant vessels. The following is the preliminary damage report concerning all vessels involved in the attack:

M/V UNITY EXPLORER – Minor-Moderate Damage

M/V NUMBER 9 – Severe Damage, Risk of Sinking

M/V SOPHIE II – Minor-Moderate Damage

USS CARNEY – No damage sustained.

AC: Expect substantial US Navy presence (as well as other nations/coalitions) in the region following the escalation of these attacks. Threats to global maritime shipping will almost certainly result in an escalation of presence patrols (and hostilities) in the region. Specifically, the USS BATAAN (LHD-5) ARG, and the USS CARTER HALL (LSD-50) remain O/S in the northern Red Sea, and could maneuver south to provide additional support.

South America: Yesterday, Venezuelan citizens voted overwhelmingly to support the annexation of the Esequibo region of Guyana.

-HomeFront-

USA: Special Envoy John Kerry has announced that the United States will be joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance. This is an international pledge to immediately halt the construction of new coal-fired power plants, and to remove all existing coal power plants by 2035. AC: According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), last year roughly 20% of all energy produced in the US originated from coal.

-Analyst Comments-

The vote turning in favor of an annexation of Esequibo is not surprising considering Venezuela’s electoral history. However, now that Maduro has the mandate, the world awaits Venezuela’s actions on the matter. Very early (and unconfirmed) reports suggest that Venezuelan SOF may already have penetrated the jungles of the Esequibo region. This would align with Venezuela’s goals, and if confirmed would lead to even more escalation throughout the region.

As the US has blamed the allegedly Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled Yemeni government for the recent attacks on maritime shipping, this will add to the list of justifications to attack Iran that many US politicians have been wanting. As a reminder, several US politicians have openly called for a war with Iran, specifically for the launching of preemptive strikes against targets in Iran. While difficult to tell if these recent attacks will be the “straw that broke the camels back”, it is very likely that increased harassment and attacks on commercial shipping will draw an international response.

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Analyst: S2A

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