//The Wire//2300Z December 4, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: SITUATION IN SOUTH KOREA SOMEWHAT STABILIZED AS DEVELOPMENTS CONTINUE. UNITED HEALTHCARE CEO ASSASSINATED IN NYC. HAMA IN DANGER OF ENCIRCLEMENT IN SYRIA.//

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-International Events-

Syria: Rebel forces continue their assault on Hama as Russian forces continue to lose terrain and equipment. This morning, rebel forces allegedly photographed the capture of a Podlet K1 radar system in Hama, which is used in conjunction with S300/S400 air defense systems. AC: By this afternoon, it appears that Hama may be close to becoming encircled by rebel forces, with the only point of egress to the south of the city becoming threatened by HTS forces which have pushed south from the east and west of the city in a classic pincer movement throughout the day.

South Korea: The impacts from yesterday’s events continues to be felt throughout Seoul as lawmakers begin impeachment proceedings against President Yoon. So far, the military situation has reached a point of stability, though it is uncertain as to who has been arrested so far.

-HomeFront-

New York: The CEO of United Healthcare Brian Thompson was assassinated this morning by an unknown assailant on the sidewalk outside of the Hilton Midtown hotel. The assassin remains at large. AC: Of note, this incident appears to be a more professional assassination and not an incident of random street crime.

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Analyst Comments: The additional details that have become public during yesterday’s rapid-pace of events in South Korea have been interesting. In typical South Korean fashion, the situation has mostly been a rollercoaster of events, with many power-players changing perspectives and positions in rapid order. The coup-that-never-was continues to be a series of exceptionally strange events that do not adhere to the normally-observed characteristics of a full-blown military coup.

Militarily speaking, the exact military units that took part in the failed coup attempt remain unidentified. Following the high-tensions in the morning, throughout the day other unidentified military forces were observed outside the homes of prominent opposition politicians as well as many journalists. Separately, several RoK defense officials stated that they had no idea what was happening at the time, and only heard of the activities at the National Assembly Building from the local news broadcasts.

This could indicate several possibilities that are usually inherent to similar coup attempts such as this one. For one, many of the generals who were indeed supportive of Yoon during this crisis will undoubtedly remain silent now that Yoon’s attempt failed. On the other hand, compared to the actual size of South Korea’s military, and the speed at which events transpired, it is very likely that most of the military (probably to include many senior leaders) actually did not know what was happening, and therefore had no hand in any of this.

Additional details complicate the involvement of military forces. For instance, some of the teams that breached the windows and gained entry into the National Assembly Building appeared to have been outfitted with weapons that were for training purposes. Specifically, some citizens were able to photograph the configuration of some of the soldiers’ weapons, which indicated that at least several of them were outfitted with training bolts. This means that in at least some cases, soldiers were incapable of firing live rounds, but rather outfitted in a training role. Other soldiers were observed to have no magazines in their sidearms as well.

This detail complicates the picture significantly, with a few possibilities remaining plausible. The deployment of troops to the National Assembly Building could have been a very dangerous bluff, with the soldiers never really intending to militarily overthrow anyone, but rathe