//The Wire//1630Z February 10, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: ISRAEL PREPARES FOR INVASION OF RAFAH, EGYPT RESPONDS BY POSTURING.//

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-International Events-

Middle East: Israel continues to prepare for large scale combat operations in Rafah. In response, Egypt has deployed multiple battalions from the 4th Armored Division (of the 3rd Field Army) to the border region. Israeli forces also continue to stage in the North, and operations continue in Gaza City and Khan Younis as before.

Red Sea/HOA: The U.S. continues to conduct (now) routine strikes in Yemen, allegedly targeting cruise missiles readying to launch, and alleged Uncrewed Surface Vehicles (USVs). Yemeni attacks against commercial shipping have waned over the past couple of days as most cargo bound for western ports has diverted from the region. Local traffic, or traffic bound for ports not affiliated with the US or western Europe, remains unaffected. However, more direct attacks on US Navy forces in the region have increased as Yemeni forces take advantage of any targets of opportunity that they deem to be valid for engagement.

Far East: Chinese airspace incursions continue over the Taiwan Strait as Taiwanese Defense Forces detect 8 reconnaissance balloons in Taiwanese airspace. This continues the slow, but steady increase in Chinese operations in the vicinity of Taiwan.

-HomeFront-

TX: Border crisis continues as before. Despite a lack of mainstream media coverage, the planned demonstrations in the vicinity of the southern US border have been ongoing for several days. The main effort has been via the “Take Our Border Back” convoy, which has made several stops at varying venues in the border region. 

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Analyst Comments: Despite the claims to the contrary, it is unlikely that Egypt will take any deliberate action (beyond posturing) unless the border itself is breached (which is unlikely to happen). Israel will likely take some time to prepare for operations in Rafah, which will also stretch thin forces already committed to Gaza City, Khan Younis, and the West Bank and northern border region with Lebanon.

Analyst: S2A1

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