//The Wire//2300Z February 28, 2024//

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//BLUF: TENSIONS MOUNT IN TRANSNISTRIA. PROTESTS CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Yesterday the breakaway-Republic of Transnistria voted to formally request to become a protectorate of Russia. This region, a thin strip of diplomatically ambiguous land situated in the eastern part of Moldova along the Ukrainian border, has been host to sentiments similar to those of the now-occupied districts of the Donetsk in the complicatedly-described eastern region of Ukraine. Roughly 250,000 self-described ethnic Russians reside in this ambiguous breakaway region. This vote is largely the result of diplomatic and economic tensions with Moldova, which is one of Transnistria’s only trade partners.

Throughout the remainder of the continent, farmer protests continue. Demonstrations at the headquarters of the European Union in Brussels have become increasingly kinetic following the routine destruction of police barriers by demonstrators. Yesterday, an estimated 100,000 people protested against the EU’s climate agenda in Warsaw, and tens of thousands protested against the same in Madrid. Protests have expanded significantly over the past few weeks and now include almost every major western city between Wales and Greece.

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Analyst Comments: Moldova’s actions so far in response to the events in Transnistria have not been clear. Limited reporting on social media has suggested military movements within Moldova, but just as with all open-source media currently, flashy videos of tanks-on-the-move are usually very common deception practices intended to drive engagement on social media. As such, while it is important to recognize the significance of the tensions in the region, it is challenging to determine what actions are being taken on the ground until more information sources become available. More generally, Russia has had a limited military presence within Transnistria for a few years, likely serving as Russia’s eyes and ears in the region.

As Sweden’s NATO membership is imminent, Russia could seek to muddy the waters by raising concerns of Transnistrian annexation. Though it is militarily unlikely, stoking the threats of Transnistria becoming another Donetsk would be a valuable propaganda tool useful to all sides. 

Analyst: S2A1

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