RR The Wire 1630Z January 13, 2024

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 163013Z JAN 24

ICOD: 153013Z JAN 24

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: U.S. NAVY SAILORS MISSING AT SEA IN GULF OF ADEN.

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-International Events-

Red Sea/HOA: CENTCOM has confirmed that the U.S. Navy is currently conducting SAR operations as two sailors have been reported missing. Airstrikes within Yemen enter their second day as Pentagon officials continue to withhold details of this operation. Little information has been disclosed as to the size, scope, or duration of this mission.

Europe: Investigative journalist (and American citizen) Gonzalo Lira has died in a Ukrainian prison. Following previous run-ins with Ukrainian officials, he was ultimately incarcerated in May for allegedly promoting “Russian aggression” in video content that was critical of Zelensky. Communication with him was limited before his death, but he did confirm that he had been tortured prior to his final imprisonment (and subsequent disappearance) which resulted from him trying to flee the country.

Far East: In Japan, ANA Flight 1182 experienced an in-flight emergency, returning to Toyama airport after takeoff. Pilots noticed a crack in a cockpit window, prompting the Boeing 737-800 to perform a precautionary landing. The crack did not result in any depressurization or injuries to the crew.

-HomeFront-

TX: The DHS has filed an emergency motion with SCOTUS to stop Texas from securing the southern border. At the moment, it is unclear as to if the SCOTUS will take the case. 

Analyst Comments: As a reminder, there has been no statement explaining the combat operations within Yemen in any detail. As Congress has not approved this operation, the details of the operation itself are not public; we do not know if this is a limited action, a temporary campaign, or the beginning of a war. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby stated that “We’re not interested in…a war with Yemen. We’re not interested in a conflict of any kind here”. However, dropping bombs on a country is usually the defining characteristic of a conflict. Additionally, U.S. officials have urged commercial shipping to avoid the area. This is generally counterproductive for a military operation intended to increase freedom of navigation. Consequently, more shipping companies have announced a cessation of operations through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

As conflicting information abounds surrounding the war in Yemen, questions begin to emerge regarding potential U.S. casualties. Yemen claims to have destroyed several ships and aircraft, whereas the U.S. claims to have sustained no damage at all. Considering the intensity of Yemeni counterattacks, the truth is likely somewhere in between these extremes. Though quite impressive, U.S. Navy shipborne defenses are not infallible, falling prey to swarm attacks or intense concentrations of fire…the exact style of attack Yemeni forces are conducting. Yemeni targeting is primitive by comparison…but the competency crisis within the U.S. Navy is severe.

Missing sailors are unfortunately common; suicides and accidents occur quite frequently when on deployment. However, two sailors going missing at the same time is rare. It is even more rare for this to happen during a heightened state of readiness, and in the middle of combat operations when situational awareness is enhanced and complacency should be minimal.

Though this is highly speculative at this time, it is possible that the reports of missing sailors are linked to a successful Yemeni attack. It is impossible to determine in any case as ships at sea do not tend to host investigative journalists. Considering the sources, even in the rare case a U.S. Navy ship was successfully targeted, the only source for information would be the U.S. Navy itself, until