//The Wire//2300Z January 23, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: TEXAS CONTINUES CURRENT THREAT POSTURE AT BORDER//

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-International Events-

Europe: Protests and counter-protests continue on a variety of issues. Anti-government protests remain constant in the Netherlands, Germany, France, Poland, Spain, and Romania. Pro-government counter protests have been observed in limited capacities, with most counter-protests being observed in France.

Red Sea/HOA: Coalition targeting efforts continue in Yemen as Houthi attacks on commercial shipping remain regular. Non-western shipping remains unaffected through the region. Rumors persist regarding the potential for increased military operations in Yemen. AC: Nothing is set in stone, and the motive for stoking the fires of military intervention is always increased during election seasons or times when European leaders are facing domestic problems. However, it is difficult to imagine that anything short of a substantial LSCO would result in the desired effects of freedom of navigation. However, few nations possess the capabilities to conduct such actions. Also, the lack of tact and nuance necessary for power-players to arrive at a clever solution to this problem make it unclear as to what the general plan to mitigate this crisis is.

-HomeFront-

TX: State authorities have issued statements confirming that their posture at the border has not changed following the SCOTUS ruling. Concertina and razor wire remains in place, and TXNG soldiers remain in blocking positions preventing illegal immigration. This afternoon, local reports indicate TXNG forces strengthening their positions and improving obstacles along the border.

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Analyst Comments: Though difficult to verify with any accuracy, commercial shipping companies appear to have established substantial communication and authorization procedures for ships attempting to transit the Red Sea. In direct opposition to US Navy guidance, ships are engaging in an authorization process to streamline the process of obtaining permission to transiting the region. As this crisis develops, cargo companies with billions of dollars on the line are likely not going to accept ambiguity of whether or not their ships are going to be targeted. As such, it’s highly likely that covert corporate communications are being established with Yemeni forces to ensure safe passage for their ships…and encourage complications among their competitors. As military options have proven to be largely ineffective, it is more than likely that private companies are arriving at solutions, skirting diplomatic and military options.

Analyst: S2A

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