//The Wire//1930Z March 4, 2024//

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//BLUF: RED SEA ATTACKS CONTINUE. NATO EXERCISE BEGINS IN FINLAND. TENSIONS MOUNT IN NAGORNO KARABAGH.//

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-International Events-

Europe: NATO’s standard arctic training exercise has begun, taking place this year for the first time in Finland. Normally held in Norway every other year, OPN COLD RESPONSE has been renamed to be OPN NORDIC RESPONSE as of Finland joining NATO last year. This exercise will continue until March 14th.

Nagorno-Karabagh – Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan have escalated over the past few weeks following limited skirmishes in the region. In the Azeri controlled areas, significant construction efforts are underway, with the previous provincial capital building being demolished over the weekend. Limited skirmishes carried out by small patrols have been reported in the northern Azeri-occupied areas over the past few days, causing local concerns that the conflict may flare up again. AC: So far, there are no indications of large military movements from either side, but diplomatic relations are deteriorating which in turn will likely cause more tensions in the near future.

Red Sea/HOA: This morning another cargo ship was struck with at least one cruise missile in the Gulf of Aden. Houthi forces claim that the vessel belongs to the Israeli shipping company ZIM, but as the vessel was transiting without emitting transponder data, independent verification will take some time.

-HomeFront-

USA: Congress is considering the closure of the Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve (NGSR). Nestled within the latest thousand-page spending bill, this closure is planned to take place after the U.S. draws down the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) by one million barrels this year. The NGSR was established in 2014 in response to the effects of Hurricane Sandy which caused widespread fuel disruptions throughout the northeastern United States. In the years since, this reserve has held approximately one million barrels of refined gasoline.

PA: A train derailment incident occurred along the Lehigh River in Lehigh County on Saturday morning. Three trains were involved in the derailment after an eastbound train collided with another train stopped on the track. The resulting debris from the first collision resulted in the derailment of a third westbound train on the adjacent track. An unknown quantity of diesel fuel was spilled into the river, but no other HAZMAT was reported. The cause of the incident is under investigation.

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Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential closure of the NGSR, the reduction of strategic POL reserves is not generally recommended for a nation which has increasingly vulnerable energy needs. However, when passed, this would align with the long-standing trend of Congressional bills increasing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure. The daily impact this would have to average citizens is minimal, but the reduction of critical energy reserves is a consideration in the event that normal fuel delivery services are impacted in some way throughout the region.

Analyst: S2A1

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