//The Wire//2030Z May 14, 2024//

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//BLUF: RUSSIAN MOD CHANGES. HOUTHI ATTACKS CONTINUE AND INCREASE IN RANGE.//

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-International Events-

Russia: MoD Sergei Shoigu has transitioned into a new role as Secretary of the Russian Security Council, following his service as Defense Minister for over a decade. AC: Sources vary widely in even the description of this transition. Western media sources claim Shoigu was fired (or promoted out of the way), whereas pro-Russian sources claim he was promoted into a more substantial and strategic position. Either way, this move is significant as any personnel change (especially at high levels within the defense industry) signals a change in stance, policy, intent, and strategy. However, only time will tell which of these factors Shoigu’s positional change is indicative of.

Georgia: Discontent continues to grow in Tbilisi following weeks of protests. Thousands of protesters demonstrated outside governmental buildings in the capital city over the weekend. AC: As a reminder, these demonstrations are largely in response to Georgia’s parliament potentially adopting a new law which is perceived as granting more power to government to crack down on dissent. However, supporters of the bill claim it will reduce western influence as the bill will require media organizations and NGOs to register as foreign agents if over 20% of their funding originates from outside of Georgia.

Red Sea/HOA: Attacks on commercial shipping continue as Houthi forces demonstrate increasing targeting capabilities.

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Analyst Comments: A few weeks ago, the M/V MSC ORION was targeted by Houthi forces with virtually zero comment from western media sources or official maritime agencies. However, over the past few days the reasoning behind this lack of coverage (or even confirmation of the attack) has become apparent…at the time of the attack the MSC ORION was roughly 800 miles off the coast of Yemen. A successful drone attack this far from Houthi territory signals a significant increase in Houthi capabilities (though the indicators of these capabilities have been present since the conflict began, via other similar incidents that likewise received little attention from the west). Consequently, several maritime security firms and organizations are recommending commercial shipping give Yemeni waters an even wider berth with regards to what has become the main shipping route for western-affiliated companies, the Cape of Good Hope shipping corridor.

Analyst: S2A1

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