//The Wire//1400Z May 03, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: UCLA ENCAMPMENT DISPERSED. RUSSIAN TROOPS ENTER AMERICAN BASE IN NIGER. TAIWAN DETECTS PLAN EXERCISES IN STRAIT.//

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-International Events-

Far East: Taiwanese forces noted an increase in Chinese activity in the Taiwan Strait overnight. 26x aircraft of varying types (including medium-bombers and UAVs) were noted conducting exercises in coordination with 5x PLAN surface vessels. AC: This increase in activity above baseline is likely in accordance with China’s observance of traditional Communist holidays, which usually serve as a vector for military drills or exercises. China also launched their latest carrier (the Fujian, CV-18) on the May Day holiday, where she has been conducting sea trials over the past 24 hours.

Niger: The situation regarding American presence in the country continues to deteriorate. Overnight, the Pentagon confirmed that Russian troops (likely PMCs) have entered Base 201 at Agadez. Pentagon officials claim the Russians have occupied a compound within the base separate from American forces that remain on site.

-HomeFront-

California: The main encampment at UCLA has been completely dispersed by police. AC: So far, most of the demonstrators have either been arrested and immediately released, and/or (likely) have dispersed to other occupied zones around the United States. This may be worthy of note considering the recent mice incident. Regardless of the potential nefariousness of recent events, malign actors now know with high confidence that someone can approach a large crowd of people, disperse an unidentified object without any investigation or media coverage, and the crowd will disperse a few days later to locations all around the United States. This incident, if it was indeed a simple prank, at minimum provides valuable operational data for malign actors seeking to cause major incidents around the United States. 

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Analyst Comments: Though the situation in Niger results in very little media coverage, this situation has the potential for extremely serious consequences to develop. So far, diplomats are attempting to mitigate the situation, while defense officials do what they can to ease this transition. Though the strategic value of the Agadez base is quite significant to American military operations throughout the Sahel, from the information that has become public surrounding this scandal, the DoD prerogative of waiting out the storm and somehow cutting a deal with Niger seems to be faltering with each passing day. The arrival of Russia on the stage seals the deal for any American hopes to remain strategically emplaced within Niger. Unfortunately, this creates an exceptionally dangerous situation for the troops on the ground due to the logistics of a departure; everyone knows the U.S. contingent in Niger can’t remain…the question is no longer “if” the U.S. will leave, but “when”. This is especially challenging for both the troops in Agadez, as well as the contingent at the Embassy compound in Niamey. The logistical challenges alone greatly complicate the security situation on the ground, and highlight many of the same military concerns that the United States has faced throughout Africa over the past few decades.

Analyst: S2A1

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