RR The Wire 2300Z November 01, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230001Z NOV 23

ICOD: 223001Z NOV 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

QQQQ

BLUF: ISRAEL CONTINUES ADVANCE INTO GAZA. CASUALTIES MOUNT ON ALL SIDES.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: Israel continues to take casualties in their advance on Gaza City as Information Operations from both sides obfuscate the situation on the ground. Demonstrations throughout Israel intensify as Israelis protest in opposition to the invasion of Gaza. So far, most counter-government protests have been swiftly put down by authorities.

In the South, Israeli forces have engaged in a western advance to the sea, and are expected to reach the beach by tomorrow. This maneuver will result in the isolation of Gaza City into a northern pocket, and allow a south-north advance from central Gaza into Gaza City. AC: This will also effectively cut off any evacuation south for the millions of Palestinians who have not been able to leave Gaza City. It is not clear as to if Israel will allow fleeing civilians through their lines to the south, but this is unlikely for now as the situation remains highly dynamic.

Western Asia: Pakistan begins the process of deporting hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees who fled the country following the Taliban takeover two years ago. Last month, Pakistan announced that by Nov 1, all undocumented persons within the country would be deported. An estimated 1.7 million Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan and are facing deportation.

-Analyst Comments-

Israeli forces themselves have claimed “heavy casualties”, but it is not clear as to what Israel considers to be heavy casualties. Though statistics are impossible to verify, the IDF has publicly declared 16 casualties since the invasion of Gaza began. By contrast, roughly 10,000 Palestinian casualties have been reported since the start of this conflict. Note that Palestinian civilian casualties are difficult to discern from Hamas casualties. However, since militants are seeking refuge in long-established tunnels deep underground, the overwhelming majority of casualties in Gaza so far have been civilians.

Rumors are circulating on social media alleging Iran’s direct involvement in the Israeli War is to begin soon. So far, there are few indications that Iran’s actions are anything more than saber-rattling responses to Israel’s actions in Gaza. Most Arab States are preparing for this conflict to escalate, but all of this hinges on Israel’s actions in Gaza. If Israel continues to strike civilian centers, the excuse of Hamas using “human shields” is not an argument that is going to cut it with most of the world. As such, high-profile airstrikes resulting in substantial CIVCAS are likely to warrant a response from Middle Eastern nations that so far, have been biding their time.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

NNNN