//The Wire//2200Z November 26, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: COMPLEXITIES AND NUANCE OF NATO PERSPECTIVES IN EUROPE CONTINUE CONTRIBUTING TO TENSIONS REMAINING HIGH. POSTURING EFFORTS AMONG ALL PARTIES CONTINUES AS WELL.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Posturing efforts by NATO continue as before. Yesterday French media outlets reported that both France and Britain are allegedly considering the deployment of troops to Ukraine.

AC: While these claims have been made before in the past, the “unnamed sources” in this case cited the sideline diplomatic discussions during a recent Remembrance Day visit by PM Starmer to France. Two days ago, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot visited London, and made statements suggesting those earlier sideline discussions were probably true. More specifically, when mentioning the involvement of France and the U.K. more directly in the conflict he stated that “we do not discard any option”.

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Analyst Comments: In classic form, many legacy media outlets have also amplified fearful messaging to the point of directly altering the statements of senior NATO officials. For instance, many pundits have claimed that NATO is considering a first strike against Russia. In reality, the quote that sparked this manipulative and misleading news headline came from Adm. Rob Bauer, who has spoken publicly twice over the past week with regards to the focus being on NATO’s military readiness at a time of global instability. Adm. Bauer’s original quote is as follows:

“The idea was we are a defensive alliance, so we will only sit and wait until we are attacked, and then when we are attacked, we will be able to shoot down the 'arrows' that come to us.” And that it would be “smarter to attack the archer, that is...Russia—if Russia attacks us. So you need to have a combination of deep precision (strikes) with which you can take out the weapons systems that are used to attack us”.

As Adm. Bauer is of Dutch nationality there is likely some level of the meaning of his quote being lost in translation. More specifically, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov directly lied and stated that Bauer called for a “preemptive strike”, when Bauer never actually used the word “preemptive” in his original quote. Western media, not understanding what Bauer was trying to convey (and also being unwilling to watch the video recording of his talk themselves), probably heard these Russian claims and in their zeal to focus on the fearmongering potential, warped the original meaning of his message. Somewhat hilariously, western media has focused on this one quote (from an hour-long seminar and Q&A session)…while completely ignoring the larger message conveyed during the talk. Bauer’s short quote has been taken out of context; he was not advocating for a direct preemptive strike on Russia, but quite the opposite.

In fact, quite literally Bauer’s next sentence was “and because we are a defensive alliance, we will have to take the first blow. So Russia will start the conflict, because we are not going to attack Russia out of nothing.” Bauer’s overall remarks were exceptionally concerning, and very much indicative of NATO driving as fast as possible towards a direct military confrontation with Russia. In effect, this indicates that the media is right, but right for the wrong reasons. In this case, a bit of background knowledge must be understood to properly make decisions based on NATO’s perspective.

Much of the consternation around Bauer’s statements probably comes from a lack of understanding of how the nuts and bolts of a Large-Scale Combat Operation (LSCO) would actually work out if such a war were to break out between NATO and Russia. Additionally, this somewhat minor quote/incident is illustrative of long-standing NATO doctrine that requires more time to explain the nuance of. Bauer, who was responding to a ques