RR The Wire 2330Z October 18, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233018Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230018Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: TENSIONS REMAIN HIGH FOLLOWING GAZA HOSPITAL INCIDENT. RUSSIA INCREASES PRESENSE PATROLS IN BLACK SEA.
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-International Events-
Middle East: Israeli state media announces that all preparations for the ground invasion of Gaza are complete.
Situation regarding the Gaza Hospital strike remains unclear as information warfare takes center stage. Debate continues as to whether the strike was indeed an Israeli airstrike, or a failed HAMAS rocket attack. Various Arab States continue to issue travel advisories and recall notices for their citizens abroad. Demonstrations throughout the Middle East continue to be extremely kinetic, as tensions remain high throughout the region.
Russia: President Putin gives the order for persistent CAP to begin in the neutral airspace over the Black Sea. In a televised address, Putin specifically mentioned that the MiG-31K aircraft will be armed with Kh-47M2 KINZHAL (NATO: AS-24 KILLJOY) missiles. These are Russia’s newest hypersonic ballistic missiles that, in his speech, Putin specifically mentioned would be within range of the American CSG’s in the Mediterranean Sea.
-HomeFront-
USA: Biden to address the nation at 2000R tomorrow evening.
-Analyst Comments-
Follow on information regarding the Gaza Hospital strike, has not resulted in the confirmation of anything; we’re not entirely certain a strike was even conducted on the physical hospital building. Mountains of evidence exist to prove any narrative; but sifting through the fake photos/videos will take some time to increase analytical certainty as to what happened. Regardless of the truth, the Arab world is outraged and based on the statements of regional leaders, there is very little distinction between an airstrike and a failed missile launch. In the absence of forensic evidence, many Arab leaders consider the attack to be Israel’s fault even if it was a HAMAS rocket, as HAMAS would not have conducted the attack without Israeli attacks on Palestine. However flawed this logic may be, this appears to be the narrative playing out in many public statements by foreign pundits/leaders, as well as online chatter surrounding the incident. Consequently, it is already too late for truth to result in restraint…on either side. Demonstrations will likely continue, and increase in severity as the Israeli ground offensive begins.
Vladimir Putin’s casual reference to American aircraft carriers being within range of hypersonic missiles may seem to be alarming, but is almost certainly Putin’s classic way of warning the west. American CSGs can be targeted in any number of ways, much less by aircraft that will have to fly over NATO airspace (Turkey) to cause trouble. However, this reference does indicate the opposition to US presence in the Med. As the US continues nearly persistent cargo flights into Israel, and MSM reports reference potentially thousands of US troops becoming involved in some way with this conflict, these actions will be perceived as US aggression in the region. On the diplomatic front, atmospherics indicate the US has taken a back seat. US officials have been kept waiting by foreign leaders, or meetings with American politicians have been canceled outright. Other interactions between US officials and Arab leaders have been lukewarm at best. As Israel begins the ground operation in Gaza, the potential for flashpoints to occur is extremely high which may cause problems not just on the diplomatic front, but at home as well.
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Analyst: S2A
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