RR The Wire 2330Z October 19, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 233019Z OCT 23

ICOD: 230019Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

QQQQ

BLUF: ISRAEL INVASION OF GAZA IMMINENT. US INVOLVEMENT IN THE CONFLICT DEEPENS AS ATTACKS CONTINUE IN THE MIDDLE EAST.

-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----

-International Events-

Middle East Front: After much delay, the Israeli invasion of Gaza appears to be on the horizon. Attacks are beginning to involve US military presence throughout the region, with rocket and drone attacks being reported at the Al-Asad Airbase in Iraq. Missiles fired by Houthi rebels in Yemen were also intercepted by the USS Carney (DDG 64), currently underway in the Red Sea.

Europe: Multiple terror attacks/incidents have been occurring constantly since the beginning of the Israeli-HAMAS War. Stabbing incidents appear to be the most common attack vector, continuing the trend from the past few years.

-HomeFront-

USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue in most major US cities. Hundreds of rioters were arrested at the US Capitol following a rally in support of Palestine. The DoS has issued a global travel warning, urging Americans on the entire planet to use Caution and be alert for attacks.

-Analyst Comments-

The Israeli invasion of Gaza is behind schedule by American standards…if that operation were to be a quick and limited campaign. LSCOs take time, even if the combat zone is only 140 sq mi. The preparation time needed by Israeli forces strongly indicates Israel does not believe this will be a quick war, and that the IDF was not prepared for this operation or a total mobilization. The latter idea is supported by Israeli politicians who have been openly stating that this will not be a quick operation. Other rhetoric from Israeli sources indicates that an annexation of Gaza is guaranteed, but how much of Gaza is to be taken by Israel is not yet determined. External actors (and international politics) will probably be the deciding factor.

On the diplomatic front, developing reports that the US has given “the green light” to an Israeli invasion of Gaza are extremely alarming. If these reports are true, and taking all factors into account, the US has done nothing to ease tensions in the region, and have openly been advocating for expanding this conflict. In Congress, various politicians continue to openly call for war with Iran, and other nations. This alone makes the proposals and efforts by Russia and China look reasonable by comparison. The irony of these two nations being the voices of peace in the UN is palpable, and will paint the US into a diplomatic corner as US foreign policy remains stagnant.

-----END TEARLINE-----

Analyst: S2A

END REPORT

NNNN