RR The Wire 2330Z October 20, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR
DTG: 233020Z OCT 23
ICOD: 230020Z OCT 23
CONTROLS: Public Release
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BLUF: US AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO DELAY ISRAELI INVASION OF GAZA. STRATEGIC MANEUVERING CONTINUES ON ALL SIDES AS PREPARATIONS FOR WAR CONTINUE.
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-International Events-
Middle East Front: Following Israeli statements that the IDF are ready for an invasion of Gaza, the US DoS is reportedly working to delay the campaign. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman proposes the creation of a Palestinian state, based on the 1967 borders.
Various militant groups continue to amass on the Syrian/Israeli border. The composition and disposition of these forces is not clear and extremely variable as many independent Islamic groups/tribes prepare for a more region-wide conflict.
Europe: General unrest remains following events in the Middle East. Various attacks are being reported throughout Europe but it is unclear as to if these attacks are deliberate terror attacks that remain unreported, or if they are more representative of general crime.
-HomeFront-
USA: Pro-Palestine demonstrations and riots continue regularly throughout the US. So far, demonstrations have exhibited the standard volatility expected by today’s standards. More substantial/kinetic demonstrations are likely as flashpoints are reached in the Middle East. US politics remains in turmoil as Congress remains stagnant on a choice of House Speaker.
-Analyst Comments-
In the Middle East, all concerned parties are trading space, for time. Efforts are being undertaken by Israeli officials to shift expectations of what the invasion might look like. The US is attempting to delay the invasion so as to give military sources time to secure the release of more hostages. Israel, demonstrating extreme concerns with what is certain to be a largely counterinsurgency war, most of which will be fought underground, is attempting to bombard Gaza sufficiently before the ground operation begins. Netanyahu, who before this crisis was on the brink of experiencing a Civil War of his own, is unlikely to politically withstand anything less than a total initial invasion of Gaza, and at least a partial annexation of Gaza territory.
Most Arab nations (and a few European states) are concerned with the conflict expanding into Lebanon and beyond, and as such have taken precautions to improve their own readiness. A grand bluff is developing as Iran exerts influence throughout the region, and strengthen ties with Russia.
Around the world, care must be taken to accurately portray terror threats. MSM sources tend to underreport terror attacks that do not fit their chosen narrative, but amplify attacks that sensationalize violence. Consequently, determining the reasoning behind an attack is very difficult; discerning between regular street violence and a coordinated attack is not easy. Accusations are rampant that some jurisdictions are concealing the nature of attacks, in order to downplay the terror threat. Due to the nature of these atmospherics, none of these accusations can be verified without legal testimony, which is rarely given. However, constant vigilance is recommended as uncertainty regarding the impending actions in the Middle East result in increased potential for hostile actions here at home.
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Analyst: S2A
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