RR The Wire 2300Z October 31, 2023

PRECEDENCE: ROUTINE RR

DTG: 230031Z OCT 23

ICOD: 223031Z OCT 23

CONTROLS: Public Release

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BLUF: YEMENI ATTACKS ON ISRAEL INTENSIFY. ISRAEL TAKES HEAVY CASUALTIES, MAKES SLOW PROGRESS IN NORTHERN GAZA.

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-International Events-

Middle East Front: The first few days of the Israeli invasion of Gaza have resulted in fierce resistance, and slow progress. Video evidence indicates Hamas has regularly and effectively targeted Israeli MBTs, IFVs, and APCs during the advance. Israeli DM Gallant confirms via press conference that IDF has suffered heavy losses, though the exact numbers of casualties/losses is unknown.

Missile attacks from Yemen have increased following the declaration of War issued by the rebel-held government sector. It is difficult to determine the effectiveness (or existence) of many of these extremely long-range attacks; many reports of random missile impacts in Israel have been reported without any indication of a point of origin.

Earlier today, IDF officials claimed responsibility for a substantial airstrike on the Jabalia Refugee Camp in Northern Gaza. IDF officials claim the strike was targeting one Hamas leader, and many civilian casualties have been reported.

Elon Musk’s claims of Starlink support for Gaza backtrack as he claims that Starlink will only be provided for Gaza after investigation and permission from the US and Israel is granted. It is unclear as to if connections and internet traffic will be monitored by Starlink to ensure that their services are only being used for humanitarian purposes. AC: Based on these conditions, in the remote chance someone has Starlink in Gaza, it is extraordinarily unlikely to be allowed to function. For information exchange, infrastructure that does not rely on Israeli or American resources would be the most reliable form of communication in and out of Gaza.

-Analyst Comments-

Israel’s battle plan appears to be centered around an invasion of Northern Gaza on all fronts, followed by a southern push to the Sinai. Whether or not Israel will be able to obtain these goals is unclear, as overwhelming rhetoric from Israeli officials has attempted to temper expectations and prepare for a long campaign. Per long-standing Israeli defense doctrine, Israel is likely expecting long-term logistical support from the US, as the IDF has already expended substantial munitions in this war so far. Per IDF officials the Iron Dome missile supply is running low, resulting in prioritizing defensive coverage of heavily populated areas.

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Analyst: S2A

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