There’s always turmoil - tariff volatility is just today's
I’ve been doing this at TicketManager for going on 18 years.
I can’t remember a period longer than 30 days when there wasn’t some crazy turmoil in the world.
It’s a selling point for the news and something people say to each other all the time to justify whatever they’re looking to justify—whether it’s anxiety, poor performance, or a lack of vision for the future.
Since we started this company, we have had a Global recession, a Series A squeeze, a global pandemic, the city around our HQ burned down, a Covid bounce, a white-collar recession, historic inflation, and on and on.
Today, it’s the tariff volatility
Tomorrow it’ll be something else.
That’s the game.
As an entrepreneur, complaining about it and yearning for certainty is a waste of time. If it were easy, everyone would do it.
There’s nothing better than thriving through those things. It brings a sense of accomplishment I didn’t understand going in.
StubHub pulls its IPO as the ticketing darlings of the mid-2010s are cratering.
When I left StubHub in 2007, I had drinks with a couple of executives there. They couldn’t believe why I was leaving. I told them, simply: I don’t think you have any defensible moat. Eventually, the content providers, tours, bands, and teams are going to find a way to get back control of what they’re selling. And I believe they should have that control. Then what?
It turns out I was very wrong about how long it took, but we’re here now. The primaries are stronger than ever. Ticketmaster and Live Nation are thriving, Tickets.com is doing well, and AXS is growing and has found its market. All three are monetizing their tech and including secondary in their offerings.
The secondary, however? Behind the scenes, there are a lot of phone calls from investors and weary CEOs looking for homes for companies that were supposedly worth hundreds of millions or “billions” just a few years ago.
StubHub can’t find a way to service its debt
Vivid Seats' market cap has dropped to under 600 million, making it nearly impossible for them to go private. Meanwhile, investor Todd Boehly is getting heat in London for his involvement in the secondary.
The list goes on and on. There are many other darlings who raised too much money and still can’t turn a profit. If they stop paying for CAC, the numbers get terrifying (StubHub is in this boat - anyone who read their S1 saw the inefficient marketing spend).
The spigot has closed. And some big names are starting to look like they're about to become zombies if someone doesn't pick them up on the cheap.
I believe there will be at least two transactions and two CEO scalps by Q2 2026.
Augusta further proves the big are getting bigger.
The Masters market went bonkers this week. It’s a trend that’s been happening recently with major events that have a static home.
The sought-after events that have a regular home are becoming increasingly powerful, while events and teams in smaller markets are struggling. Companies are still spending; they’re just moving the spending around as they become more sophisticated.
I had lunch with a mentor several years ago, and he said something that still bothers me today. He was talking about how AI is coming and it’s probably going to wipe out the middle class.
He used the example of truck drivers, thousands of whom were going to be out of work in the near future. He told me, "You have to get on the other side of the fence before there is no middle class, because that’s how it is in most of the world" (he is not from the United States and does not live here).
That gap seems to be growing in live events right now. People can’t get enough of the top events, like The Masters, The Kentucky Derby, The US Open of Tennis, and The PLAYERS; they're all thriving. There seems to be no end in sight to their hospitality offerings. The customers can't get enough.
To that end, our team on the ground is reporting a number of broken StubHub orders. Customers coming to us asking for help after they went to pick up their badges and were turned away.
Augusta is going to shut down the secondary market. And we’re here for it.
