Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

Show Notes

Major indexes remain above rising longer-term trend measures.

Growth continues to outperform value.

Consumer discretionary leadership remains intact.

Equal-weight indexes continue improving participation.

Financials remain a key area to watch for a potential breakout.

Software and biotech are showing improving relative strength.

Bitcoin remains under pressure below key moving averages.

Volatility remains subdued despite concerns about market risk.

Breadth indicators continue holding up well.

No significant deterioration evident beneath the surface of the market.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Market Update Notes

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Market Update Notes

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Market Update Notes

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Market Update — Show Notes

Theme:

Trend lower. Today confirmed it.

Key Level

* SPY: Closed below 200-day → trend deterioration

Index Snapshot

* SPY: Below 200-day, weak bounce

* QQQ: Lost support, near 200-day

* DIA: 2 days below 200-day

* IWM: Last holdout, weakening

Context

* Below declining 5-day

* Below AVWAPs

* Rallies failing

* No follow-through

Other Markets

* Bitcoin: Rejected YTD AVWAP

* Dollar / Bonds: No change

Playbook

* Go slow

* Do less

* Small size

* Respect risk

Bottom Line

Sellers in control. No reason to force trades.

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Taking the analysis further

If you want to go deeper than the weekly charts — including how the levels translate into actual trade planning and risk management — you can follow the work Brian Shannon and I do at Alphatrends.

That’s where we walk through the same market structure in real time and apply the process to actual trade setups.

Learn More at Alphatrends.net

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Trading Adventures is a price-focused market analysis newsletter helping traders understand trend, structure, and key levels across the market.

Each week I break down charts across major indices, sectors, and individual names to provide clear technical context.

Show Notes

Trend remains firmly higher

SPY, QQQ, and IWM at new highs; DIA catching up

~11% move in just over two weeks confirms strong momentum

Extension is the current condition

Price stretched vs. short-term averages

Not an ideal location for initiating risk on higher timeframes

Execution shifts to lower timeframes

Use 30-min / 15-min charts for precision

Define entries against recent lows, 5-day MA, and AVWAPs

Risk management becomes the edge

Smaller size + tighter levels improves participation

Avoid chasing extended price

Bitcoin showing constructive behavior

Holding near YTD AVWAP instead of rejecting

Early sign of potential change in behavior

Intermarket backdrop stable

Bonds steady

Commodities holding

Volatility declining alongside equities

What this teaches

Strong trends don’t eliminate risk—they require better execution

When price is extended, timeframe selection becomes a key decision

Forward lens

Market likely to resolve extension via time or price

Rising 50-day MAs reinforce underlying trend strength

Focus remains: align with trend, define risk, avoid forcing trades

The Process Behind the Work

* Price > opinion

* Trend > prediction

* Risk first

If you like how I think here, this is where that thinking is applied every day.

Alphatrends.net

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe