Trim and Trail — Trade Management & Execution for Active Traders

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Show notes:

For several weeks I’ve been pointing out subtle cracks developing beneath the surface of this market. This week those cracks widened.

SPY broke meaningfully below its now-declining 10-week moving average, while QQQ is testing its 40-week. Leadership has faded as the Dow and small caps give up relative strength, and several overseas markets are beginning to roll over after strong advances.

Under the surface, participation is weakening as fewer stocks remain above key moving averages. At the same time, high-yield bonds have broken down and several leadership groups are showing signs of distribution.

There are still pockets of strength. Software (IGV), which I highlighted last week as a potential bounce candidate, rallied sharply and is now more than 15% off its recent lows. But the broader message from the charts is one of increasing caution as the market environment shifts.

In this week’s video we review:

* The breakdown in SPY and the key levels to watch next

* QQQ’s test of the 40-week moving average

* Weakening leadership across indices and sectors

* International markets and commodities

* Breadth and participation signals

* What this shift could mean heading into next week

Looking ahead, traders will be watching several key economic reports, including CPI on Wednesday and PCE on Friday, along with earnings from Oracle and Adobe.

The key takeaway: respect the trend, stay disciplined, and let price confirm the next move.

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Details here → https://alphatrends.net/welcomeandy/

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

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Ready to move from observation to execution? The Alphatrends invitation window is open for a limited time.

Show notes:

This week brought a moderation in last week’s caution signals, but no decisive resolution. Major indices remain largely range-bound, with improving short-term price action in the S&P 500, mixed leadership beneath the surface, and healthy overall breadth. The market continues to digest prior gains while key leadership groups sort themselves out.

Key Takeaways

* S&P 500 (SPY): Back above the 10-week moving average after multiple successful tests. Still trading within a range established since October 2025.

* QQQ: Holding anchored VWAP from the June 2025 breakout but remains below declining 4- and 10-week MAs.

* Dow (DIA): Bullish consolidation above rising shorter-term averages. Structure remains constructive.

* Small Caps (IWM): High-level consolidation with rising 10-week MA and healthy RSI.

* International Stocks: Continued strength and strong relative performance vs. U.S. equities.

* Bonds: Firm after upside move; moving averages aligned constructively.

* Commodities: Breakout remains intact; gold holding well. Oil improving but not yet in a confirmed uptrend.

* Bitcoin: Bearish consolidation with heavy-volume breakdown still unresolved.

* Leadership: Semiconductors strong; software weak. MAG-7 mixed. NVIDIA earnings are a near-term catalyst.

* Breadth: Approximately two-thirds of S&P stocks remain above 50- and 200-day MAs—participation remains solid.

* Risk Appetite: Rotation toward lower volatility and value persists; growth remains under pressure.

Closing Statement

Overall, this remains a digestion phase with solid underlying participation but uneven leadership. The improvement from last week reduces immediate downside pressure, yet mixed signals warrant a measured, risk-aware approach as the market searches for its next directional move.

Want the Daily Game Plan?

If you’ve been following these 📈Weekly Charts📉 and want more than the big-picture view — including structured trade ideas, real-time execution, and direct access to the tools behind the process — the Alphatrends invitation window is currently open.

There’s a two-week trial available with no long-term commitment.

Details here → https://alphatrends.net/welcomeandy/

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

The Next Step

As we wrap up the week, I wanted to share something personal.

Brian and I recorded this to explain why I’m excited to officially be part of Alphatrends — and what that actually means.

If you’ve followed Trading Adventures for a while, you know how I think about markets.

This is where that thinking gets put into action in real time.

If you’re serious about refining your process, this will give you a clear look at how it works from the inside.

The two-week trial is open.

Take a look.

https://alphatrends.net/welcomeandy/

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Show notes:

This week brought a moderation in last week’s caution signals, but no decisive resolution. Major indices remain largely range-bound, with improving short-term price action in the S&P 500, mixed leadership beneath the surface, and healthy overall breadth. The market continues to digest prior gains while key leadership groups sort themselves out.

Key Takeaways

* S&P 500 (SPY): Back above the 10-week moving average after multiple successful tests. Still trading within a range established since October 2025.

* QQQ: Holding anchored VWAP from the June 2025 breakout but remains below declining 4- and 10-week MAs.

* Dow (DIA): Bullish consolidation above rising shorter-term averages. Structure remains constructive.

* Small Caps (IWM): High-level consolidation with rising 10-week MA and healthy RSI.

* International Stocks: Continued strength and strong relative performance vs. U.S. equities.

* Bonds: Firm after upside move; moving averages aligned constructively.

* Commodities: Breakout remains intact; gold holding well. Oil improving but not yet in a confirmed uptrend.

* Bitcoin: Bearish consolidation with heavy-volume breakdown still unresolved.

* Leadership: Semiconductors strong; software weak. MAG-7 mixed. NVIDIA earnings are a near-term catalyst.

* Breadth: Approximately two-thirds of S&P stocks remain above 50- and 200-day MAs—participation remains solid.

* Risk Appetite: Rotation toward lower volatility and value persists; growth remains under pressure.

Closing Statement

Overall, this remains a digestion phase with solid underlying participation but uneven leadership. The improvement from last week reduces immediate downside pressure, yet mixed signals warrant a measured, risk-aware approach as the market searches for its next directional move.

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Show notes:

Markets remain mixed beneath the surface, but the major indices are holding up.

SPY and DIA continue to show strength near all-time highs, while IWM takes a short break, and QQQ has more work to do.

We’re still watching for a sequence of higher lows and higher highs to confirm strength across the board.

Sector rotation is ongoing. Some areas — like materials and staples — remain strong. Others, like software and Bitcoin, are still under pressure.

The message hasn’t changed:

Structure first, respect trend, let price action lead.

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

📊 After a week off, we’ve got a lot to cover.

This week’s Weekly Charts video walks through the big picture:

• SPY, QQQ, IWM, DIA

• Equal-weight vs cap-weight

• Sector rotations

• Small cap leadership

• Relative strength dynamics

• Breadth and participation

• International & commodities

• And what’s shifting beneath the surface

From Fibonacci extensions to Bollinger Band shifts, this one covers it all.

Get the full breakdown here.

Then hit the charts yourself and keep doing the work.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Show notes:

Market Update – February 5 Recap

The market continues to break down beneath the surface.

SPY and QQQ are confirming short-to-intermediate downtrends with clear sequences of lower highs and lower lows. Price is now below declining 8- and 21-day moving averages, and testing the rising 50-day MA for the second time in two weeks.

Crypto has rolled over hard. Bitcoin dropped over 12% intraday with heavy volume, and major coins like Ethereum, Solana, and Ripple are following. BTC has been cut nearly in half from its October highs.

This follows a sequence we’ve tracked for several weeks:

* Internals looked strong in mid-January

* MAG7 were diverging and showing early signs of weakness

* Rotation into staples, metals, materials, and energy intensified

* Breadth remained positive until late January

* SPY printed new highs, but leadership was shifting

* That structure has now broken down

Several mega caps are now losing key levels. Amazon and Microsoft are below their 200-day MAs. Google and Meta are mixed. NVIDIA and Tesla are back at support zones, with the group overall losing influence.

We’re watching key anchored VWAP levels, major pivot zones, and the 50-day MA across indices. A reversal would require a new sequence of higher lows and higher highs — beginning with a reclaim of the 5-day MA. Until then, sellers remain in control.

The message hasn’t changed:

Respect risk. Let price lead. Watch for structure to change before acting.

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

Show notes:

In this mid-week market update, I discussed the ongoing pressure on stocks, particularly noting the NASDAQ futures in a series of lower lows and lower highs. While the S&P 500 is choppy and the Russell 2000 has weakened, the Dow remains relatively strong, holding near recent highs. I also highlighted the significant decline in Bitcoin and bonds, alongside the strength in defensive sectors like staples. As swing traders, we need to stay vigilant and aware of the market’s overall direction, as sellers are currently in control.

Chapters

Market Update OverviewBitcoin Market StatusSector Performance ReviewConclusion and Market Outlook

Trading Adventures is a reader-supported publication. Subscribers receive new posts and occasional private updates not shared publicly.

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

You’ve done the studying. Now comes the execution.

You’ve already done a lot of the hard work.

You study charts.You read the market updates.You understand that risk management matters more than predictions.

But progress stalls when learning happens in isolation.

That’s where Alphatrends comes in.

Alphatrends isn’t about alerts or chasing trades. It’s about process reinforcement:

* Daily market structure and context

* Live and recorded educational Q&A sessions

* Daily market and trade-idea videos

* A professional Discord community focused on execution, not noise

* A 30-minute one-on-one session with Brian or me

* Introductory and advanced trading courses

This weekend is the final opportunity to join Alphatrends Premium at a deeply discounted rate—and that rate continues year after year as long as you remain a member.

No gimmicks. No resets.

If you want 2026 to look different from 2025, the environment you operate in matters.

Enrollment closes soon.

Or scan the QR code below.

Let’s make 2026 your best and most consistent trading year yet!

—Andy

Important: This content is provided for educational purposes only. If you’re reading this online, please review the full disclosure here.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe

📈Weekly Charts📉 Video Recap

Weekly Market Recap – December 27, 2025

This week’s charts reflect exactly what the calendar suggested: a quiet, holiday-shortened period with light volume and orderly price action. From a trend, structure, and risk perspective, markets continue to behave well, with no meaningful technical damage across major areas.

Weekly Charts – Christmas Week Summary

* Holiday-shortened week with very light volume and slow, orderly price action.

* S&P 500 recovered from last week’s dip, holding above key anchored VWAPs with moving averages aligned and price near upper Bollinger Bands.

* Nasdaq 100 advanced toward the neighborhood of all-time-high weekly closes; momentum remains constructive.

* Dow continues to show steady strength with healthy RSI and no technical damage.

* Small caps lagging slightly but holding the upper half of the range with tightening Bollinger Bands—no concerns.

* China and international markets consolidating near key pivots and flattening longer-term averages; more rest than risk.

* Bonds remain in a corrective drift lower, consolidating below declining moving averages; no acceleration in downside.

* U.S. dollar continues to weaken after rejection at the declining 40-week moving average.

* Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana remain in bearish consolidations below key moving averages and anchored VWAPs; downside resolution remains the higher-probability path.

* Commodities largely range-bound with limited conviction.

* Silver extremely extended after a sharp surge; gold strong but less stretched following consolidation.

* Crude oil continues drifting lower below declining moving averages.

* Risk appetite remains healthy: growth > value, discretionary > staples, high beta > low volatility.

* Semiconductors stabilizing and improving after recent weakness.

* Market breadth remains constructive with bullish percent indices holding at healthy levels.

* Year-end calendar is quiet; light volume favors patience, discipline, and review rather than forced trades.

The Disclosures

***This is NOT financial advice. This is NOT a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security. The content presented here is intended for educational purposes only.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.trading-adventures.com/subscribe